The war in Ukraine: – Expert: it can become “perpetual”

– This is likely to be a generational battle. Let’s say it will last for 30, 40 or 50 years, says Michael Clarke, a professor at King’s College London and an expert in defense studies.

The statement came on a question round with News from heaven‘readers.

– It is an existential struggle. Russia believes that Ukraine has no right to exist and will not change its mind in the near future.

Clarke therefore believes that the war in Ukraine could become a “perpetual conflict” until something changes either in European security, or in Russia.

– Can Ukraine win this war? Yes. But they must live with an armed peace and with a neighbor ten times greater than those who do not want them any good.

– Already a generational struggle

Professor Sven G. Holtsmark of Norwegian Armed Forces College’s Department of Defense Studies tells Dagbladet that it’s impossible to say anything certain about what the world will be like in a year, much less 50 years.

– There are so many unknowns in the world that no one has the ability to predict it. But a generational struggle, this already is.

Holtsmark points out that Russia’s war against Ukraine ended an era in European history. The long postwar period is over.

– We know we’re entering something new, but we don’t know what it is yet, he says.

A generational struggle is an expression that is used for something that shapes and is decisive for the experience of an entire generation of reality, in the same way that the Second World War became a decisive experience for all the generations that lived. during that war, Holtsmark explains.

– Describes a decisive experience for many. Historical events that shape an entire generation. And I have no doubt that what we are seeing now is the end of something. But above all, this is the beginning of something that will be the most important point of reference for the European generations living today.

Many consequences

Holtsmark believes that Europe will look back on the period we are in now, as a period in which fundamental changes have occurred on our continent. The security agreement that existed from the 1975 Helsinki Agreement, which established the inviolability of Europe’s borders, was scrapped by Russia.

– It was an important pillar in post-war Europe. The fact that it has now collapsed and disappeared will have many subsequent consequences. For example, we can already ascertain that Europe’s energy supply in the near future will not have the same basis, says Holtsmark.

– It can last for decades

However, he will not venture to speculate on the duration of the war.

– But there is nothing to stop us from imagining that we have a state of war between Ukraine and Russia for the foreseeable future. There is still a formal war between South Korea and North Korea, and it has been several decades since that war was a daily hot war. But the state of war is still there. And we also know how long the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians lasted, he says and adds:

– So such conflicts can go on for decades after decades, but then we are in a future we know nothing about.

We do not know, for example, what kind of regime there will be in Russia in a few years, or what political development will be like in the US, the professor emphasizes.

– There are countless unknown factors. The only thing we know is that sooner or later this war and this conflict will take a turn that no one can foresee now.

He sees no end

Like the British professor, Holtsmark also does not see an immediate end to the war. This holds true even if Ukraine turns out to bring Russia back to the battlefield.

– The conditions of Ukraine, at an absolute minimum, will be to recover all the areas that Russia has conquered since 24 February. Putin chose to close the door on this solution when he incorporated four Ukrainian counties into Russia a couple of weeks ago. So it is difficult to see how Russia can accept a Ukrainian victory, in the sense that it leads to some sort of an end to the war on Ukrainian terms.

One can therefore imagine that Russia will be pushed back to its borders, but that the war will continue, precisely because a peace agreement is not possible for Russia, he explains.

– The only thing that can end this war now is a Russian victory. But the West will not allow it, because it would mean Ukraine disappears as an independent state, so there is not even a possible end, says Holtsmark.