The war in Ukraine is being fought on many levels. In addition to the fierce battles fought along the approximately 1,000 kilometer long front line, there is an ongoing cyber war, monitoring of satellites, drones and classic spies on the ground.
– What is special is that the whole world can follow the war in near real time. The intelligence has been shared both in advance of the war as a warning, and it has been possible to follow the actual acts of war in an initial phase in order to deprive Russia of the opportunity to deny the horrors of the war and their narrative, says Tom Røseth, associate professor and principal lecturer in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College (FHS).
Putin got away with the horror
Never before have we been able to follow a war as closely as we do now through open sources conveyed in the media. What has previously been reserved for strictly secret intelligence organizations is now the property of the public.
When the soldiers from the infamous mercenary group Wagner entered Russia on Saturday night to overthrow the country’s military leadership, this could be followed closely by all spectators.
For almost a day, the Wagner forces moved towards Moscow, before the uprising ended when Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin entered into an agreement negotiated by the President of Belarus on Saturday evening. Almost every move they made was reported on television and newspapers.
TOWARDS MOSCOW: Soldiers from the notorious Wagner group headed for Moscow on the night of Saturday. Here they are near the military headquarters in the city of Rostov-on-Don. Photo: Reuters/NTB. view more
A new openness
Røseth sees this as part of a new line of openness and strategy on the part of the NATO countries in the face of the secretive Russia.
– The Ukraine war has been a revolution in the use of declassified intelligence and open sources. Now there is much more openness from NATO countries about what is known about the Russians’ military activities, he says.
THE COLUMN: When the Russians tried to capture Kyiv in an early phase of the war, the whole world could follow the movements of the 60 kilometer long column minute by minute. The advance was completely impossible to hide from the outside world. Photo: Maxar Technologies via Reuters/NTB. view more
Satellite images and other open intelligence have made it impossible for the Russians to deny the facts on the ground, Røseth points out.
– There is an enormous supply of sources from satellite images and think tanks, which provide a continuous credible picture of what is happening in the war.
The war minute by minute
When, in an early phase of the war, the Russians tried to take Kyiv, the whole world could follow the movements of the 60 kilometer long column minute by minute. The advance was completely impossible to hide from the outside world.
– Although the Americans reported an increased build-up of troops and increased military activity in Russia, not everyone trusted them. Some talked about warmongering this time too, but the information they now shared was to prevent a war, not start one, says Røseth.
– Does not signal strength
– In military circles there were divided assessments, and the invasion itself probably came as a surprise to many. Personally, I weighted the intelligence on the basis of classified information and factors. Among other things, they set up blood supplies for field hospitals, which you don’t do if it’s an exercise. When Joe Biden went out to say that Putin had decided to attack, this made sense, he says.
EXPERT: Associate professor and principal lecturer in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense Academy, Tom Røseth. Photo: Defense Show more
Had good intelligence
In the run-up to the invasion, even the Ukrainians doubted that there would be a full-scale invasion. This picture changed in December 2021 and became even clearer as the world transitioned to 2022.
– Both the Americans and the British shared much of their intelligence information with the outside world from an early stage. It is not new that states share intelligence, but the scope this time was much larger. he says.
One of the dangers is that you can reveal the source of information if you share too much of the intelligence information.
– This time they considered the benefit of getting the information out as greater than the fear that some sources would be revealed, says Røseth.
ALLIES: Volodymyr Zelensky and Joe Biden photographed when the US president visited Kyiv. Photo: AFP/NTB. view more
Satellite images and communications
Above the clouds on the bloody battlefield in Ukraine, it is filled with private and military drones and satellites. One of the biggest players is Elon Musk, who has set up the SpaceX project Starlink.
– Starlink provides secure military communications and satellite navigation that can be used to target missiles. In addition, this serves as a stable internet connection for ordinary Ukrainians after the Russians have shot parts of the ground station network of the mobile companies to shreds, says Røseth.
SUNKEN: The Russian cruiser Moscow, here pictured via satellite in the Black Sea days before it was sunk by the Ukrainians. Intelligence leaks suggest that US intelligence satellites helped the Ukrainians locate it before the attack. Photo: Maxar Technologies via Reuters Show more
War in space
For Elon Musk, it is a point that his satellites do not become a military target for Russia. As a business operator, he does not want his companies to become a military target, with the risk of Russia shooting down satellites and then moving the war to space.
– There will be an escalation if the war goes to space. It will require a reaction from the US.
– How real is it?
– As of now, it is not real, but the Russians have threatened this in the past. The threshold for space war is probably lower than the threshold for nuclear war. I don’t think they will go that way, says Røseth.
Several people are said to have been killed and injured in a rocket attack on the city of Kryvyi Rih in central Ukraine. Video: Telegram. view more
Drones have also played an important role in the war, particularly on the front lines.
– On a tactical level, drones have had a very important role throughout the war. In the first part, the Ukrainians had a big advantage from the drones, but now the Russians have learned to use them themselves in an almost equally good way, says Røseth.
– But they get this information from the satellites anyway?
– There is a delay in these which means that local advanced officers do not have a live satellite image. The drones deliver the information much faster, and provide an immediate understanding of the situation.
The Russian president is furious after the Wagner group took control of several cities in Russia on Saturday morning: – Armed mutiny. Reporter: Edward Stenlund. Video: Sky News Show more
– What other types of surveillance do the Russians or Ukrainians have?
– It is the cyber domain and human activity as classic spies. They are trying to infiltrate the resistance’s computer systems and communications, he says.
Ukraine has learned a lot since 2014
At the beginning of the war, the Russians gave important messages by mobile phone, while now they have satellite systems that work much better.
– The Ukrainians have learned a lot about cyberwar since 2014, and moved a lot of their information to clouds. Some Russian advances still take place with cyber advances, but it is not as successful, he says.
That’s how brutal the war is now
The Russians try to knock out communications or overload central websites or plant false information. It is a combination of means to have a greater effect, but they do so on a smaller scale than expected.
On top of this, both countries operate with classic spies.
– On the ground, there are opportunities on both sides. The Ukrainians have people inside the Russian-controlled side, who run an extremely high risk. They inform about military positions and moving troops, and infiltrators and sabotage teams, says Røseth.
According to intelligence sources, it is easier to recruit spies now that these neighboring states are at war.
Russian spy network exposed
– It is easier to pressure family, and some are also ideologically convinced that the war is wrong. Both countries are trying to tighten up on this, to crack down on unfaithful servants in their own ranks, says Røseth.
He believes that a shadow war is taking place where both countries have enough opportunities to infiltrate the other side.
Ukraine must surprise
In the flat Ukraine, with satellites, massive surveillance and spies, it will be very difficult for Ukraine to launch an offensive to take back its country.
– Military cleverness and surprise are more demanding, especially for the Ukrainians. But this is what they have to make use of, and they have to come up with an offensive that surprises the Russians, says Tom Røseth to Dagbladet.
2023-06-28 10:45:12
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