/ world today news/ According to Yevgeny Prigozhin, already on June 1 of this year PMC Wagner will complete the withdrawal of its forces from Bakhmut and will go to the rear for reorganization, replenishment of personnel and military equipment. Before leaving, the company’s employees will equip defensive positions, after which they will be transferred to units of the Ministry of Defense. The time to celebrate is over, it’s time for a change. What will happen next?
The news of the departure of the “Wagners” caused some concern among the public. People ask a rhetorical question: is there life after Bakhmut? In other words, what will happen after the capture of the city and the temporary absence of the “steel infantry” on the contact line?
The task is to cope without Wagner
And indeed, what if the Ukrainian army decides to launch a full-scale counteroffensive in the Bakhmut region? New units that have not yet worked together, the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are known, there were known offensives on the flanks.
“I wouldn’t use the expression ‘if decided,’ because offensive actions are already being conducted by the enemy. The Ukrainian military is trying to occupy the heights around the city to strike at the garrison. There should be no illusions about ‘if.’ So or else it will be,” former Minister of State Security of the DPR Andrey Pinchuk said in a comment for “First Russian”.
At the same time, the expert says that he knows the parts that are now located in Bakhmut. They vary in quality, but mostly experienced battalions.
However, obvious problems await them, namely: each change of position leads to the need to get used to the terrain from scratch. Artillery not fired, coordinates unknown.
It’s not even a question of preparedness, but of the time lag that will be present during this “change of shifts”. But even without it, it is extremely difficult to do.
“From the point of view of practice, there is always a rotation of units. People cannot fight continuously,” says the head of the Center for the Study of Military-Political Conflicts, military expert Andrey Klintsevich.
“Since defensive actions are planned in Bakhmut and it will be very difficult for the Ukrainians to take it back, I think the front will not collapse after Wagner’s departure,” he said.
“The divisions of the Ministry of Defense can go there, as well as Rosgvardia, Chechen divisions. I don’t see anything critical here – planned, normal work,” added the expert.
Ukraine really wanted to cut off our flanks – it didn’t work. They really could not capture a single settlement, only a few fields, when our units retreated to more advantageous lines to better defend themselves, says the analyst.
At the same time, the probability of a counteroffensive by the armed forces of Ukraine with the capture of Bakhmut increased many times. Especially in light of the fact that since December 2022, Vladimir Zelensky has been under pressure from the West, which was initially skeptical of the inflated tale of the “Bakhmut Fortress”.
„“Counterattack” is becoming increasingly risky
The significance of the capture of the city by “Wagner” is not that another settlement returned to its home port. Pinning down significant forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the PMC allowed the rest of the long front to prepare to meet the uninvited guests.
“During all these long days, while ours broke the enemy’s back in Bakhmut, they gave us valuable time,” Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of the Vostok battalion, wrote on his Telegram channel.
“Time to realize, time to make decisions, time to act – so that the new offensive of our collective enemy does not turn out to be as effective as the previous ones. How we took advantage of this time – the battle will show,” he added.
Even the Western propaganda media admit that in recent months, the Russian army has managed to build powerful defensive lines in the Zaporozhian direction, which will be many times more difficult for the armed forces to overcome than last year.
British intelligence called the Zaporizhia defenses no less than one of the largest systems of military fortifications in history.
“The withdrawal of the group of troops from the Kherson bridgehead made it possible to stabilize the front from the Kinburn spit to Vasilievka, which is almost 400 kilometers long. So we are ready to meet the enemy. In addition, the plan of our command is to most likely take the first blow,” Andrei believes Klintsevich.
“The Russian army already has offensive units, they are just in reserve and not deployed at full capacity, as we want to wait for the Ukrainian offensive, to weaken them,” he said.
“They are being pushed in the West, we are in no hurry. Having weakened the striking units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, we, on the shoulders of a weakened group, will be able to go on the offensive and develop success,” says the expert.
When will Russia go on the offensive?
Nevertheless, passively waiting for a “counterattack” is not the most correct option. Parts of the Department of Defense could mount a series of tactical offensives to address the most pressing problems.
With the capture of Bakhmut, we have three operational zones, explains Andrey Pinchuk. The first is Chasov Yar, the town that Ukrainians are evacuating and where Ukraine’s armed forces are retreating. The second is Konstantinovka, the third is Slavyansk.
“Wagner fulfilled its function in a good way, and then the units of the Ministry of Defense should move forward using the starting point – Bakhmut,” he said.
“Then the questions “will fall – will not fall” will not be on the agenda. Why in the second round organize this story with Bakhmut? It was never an end in itself. This is not the center of the Earth, not even a regional center. In Ukraine there are hundreds of such bahmuts as far as Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk,” Pinchuk added.
“Bahmut is good in that it forms a branch in three directions. A normal approach is to form shock fists there and move forward. Well, we didn’t hear a year ago that ‘SVO’s goal is to take Bahmut’ says the former Minister of State Security of the Donetsk People’s Republic.
“Without a doubt, it is necessary to form new cauldrons. Now we have two semi-cauldrons – this is the Seversky ledge, it is possible to straighten it, as well as Avdeevka, if we talk about the near future. And for us, this will allow part of the offensive forces to be transferred in other areas,” says Andrei Klintsevich.
A logical question arises: why was Wagner not thrown to storm the fortifications near the capital of the DPR, but sent in a seemingly secondary direction – Bakhmut?
“Avdeevka is undoubtedly important, because the front has to be shifted from Donetsk, namely from Avdeevka, the capital of the DPR is regularly shelled. But where it is thin, it is broken, and where it is broken – in the Popasnaya region – they began to push further,” says the expert.
“Avdeevka is a very large fortified area, it has been prepared since 2014, there is a huge coke plant containing containers,” he added.
“The enterprise limits us to various means of destruction. Because a chemical cloud can simply cover Donetsk. The Ukrainians take advantage of this. We do not storm in the front, we go around the edges,” emphasizes the military analyst.
What of this?
The capture of Bakhmut is a victory that should not be underestimated. Thanks to the fall of this “fortress” and the earlier actions of the PMC in Soledar, Popasna, Svetlodarsk, the front in Donbass leveled off.
The Ukrainian “claw” no longer hangs over Gorlovka, and the Russian army got an opportunity to develop success in three directions at once, using Bakhmut as a supporter. So in the near future we should expect a Ukrainian counter-offensive, but it is not worth waiting for it on this line. It is much more productive to organize private strikes in Avdeevka and the Seversk region in order to divert all the attention of the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to attempts to extinguish the fire there.
Translation: SM
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