/ world today news/ At the highest level, the USA confirmed Ukraine’s plans to launch a counteroffensive. Zelensky’s office expects to seize Crimea by eradicating “everything Russian” there, demolishing the Crimean bridge. Against this background, classified information about the VSU appeared on the network, which is why the Pentagon began an official investigation. How does Russia treat such leaks and why does the West not hide its military plans?
In the coming weeks, the ASU may go on the offensive. This was stated by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in an interview with German journalists. According to him, Ukraine will make the offensive decision on its own, and its partners adhere to two goals: to help organize the counteroffensive, and also to increase the medium- and long-term potential of the ASU.
Zelensky’s cabinet has also repeatedly announced plans for an offensive. Talks about this have been actively taking place since the autumn of last year, but in reality the main events took place on the territory of the DPR around Artyomovsk, which is gradually coming under the control of the Russian military. However, Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov at the end of March announced a counter-offensive in April-May.
The fact that Washington expects a counteroffensive from the ASU in the coming weeks was announced recently by the US ambassador to NATO, Julian Smith. At the same time, the issue of Crimea was mentioned separately by many. Andriy Sibiga, Zelensky’s deputy chief of staff, said in an interview with the Financial Times that Ukraine “does not rule out a military path to seizing Crimea.” According to him, if the Ukrainian Armed Forces manage to reach the administrative border with Crimea, then the Ukrainian authorities are allegedly ready to open a diplomatic page for discussing this issue. However, he later softened his statement.
Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian president’s chief of staff, announced this week that Ukraine could seize Crimea in five to seven months. After “capturing” the peninsula, Ukraine will “tear down the Crimean bridge” and seek to eradicate everything Russian there. According to him, “the war will continue until the complete liberation of the entire territory of Ukraine.”
In addition, in order to seize Crimea and the Donbas republics, Ukraine has formed at least eight brigades of the so-called “Advance Guard”. According to Western media, these are about 40 thousand people. The head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Igor Klimenko, announced the readiness of the military for active offensive measures.
It is noteworthy that the plans of the VSU are also mentioned in the documents of the Pentagon, which were leaked on social networks. Information also appeared about Ukrainian military units and their equipment. According to the New York Times, the Pentagon is investigating the leak of classified documents and is trying to plug the holes. According to the publication, the publication of documents is the result of the work of Russian intelligence.
It is reported that half of the 12 Ukrainian battle groups that are training in NATO countries were supposed to complete their training by March 31, and another three brigades by April 30. The number of each of these groups is from four to five thousand soldiers. The documents also mention the location and other information about the forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov said on the leak that the Russian Federation has no doubts that the US and NATO are directly or indirectly involved in the conflict. According to him, the degree of their participation in the conflict in Ukraine is gradually increasing. “We are following this process. Well, of course, this complicates the whole story, but it will not affect the outcome of the SVO,” added Peskov.
Against this background, in the expert environment, there are ambiguous assessments of both the leak itself and the public announcements about the offensive. Specialists believe that the enemy may indeed make an attempt to break into the Azov Sea regions, but the details of this attempt are shrouded in various rumors, speculations and misinformation that are deliberately spread in the media.
The statements of the Ukrainian side about Crimea deserve special attention. Their character is markedly threatening and promises not so much trouble for the Russian armed forces as repression for the Crimeans. At the same time, the rhetorical tricks used by Zelensky’s office in relation to the residents of Crimea are more like an informational-psychological attack and an attempt to sow panic on the peninsula.
“Let’s say it right away: there can be no ‘leaks’ here.” It’s funny when all of a sudden the media publishes maps with countries’ strengths, their locations. The ASU is fully controlled by the American command – both in the technical and operational parts. Can you imagine the scandal that a real leak of information would cause?” commented military expert Alexey Leonkov. “What we’re seeing now, I mean the media coverage and the White House concern about the Pentagon — it’s a distraction. Therefore, the reliability of the leak is low,” he adds.
“The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation is doing the right thing by not reacting in any way to reports of a counteroffensive. On the other hand, we can move our units to the front lines, ostensibly in response to a future attack by the enemy, and also mislead the Pentagon to see what steps the enemy will take. But here, too, everything depends on the operational situation. And yet, every military confrontation is the art of deception,” Leonkov recalled.
“All statements about the upcoming counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are made with the aim of intimidating us. They say that the whole “civilized world” armed the Ukrainians and sent them to conquer Crimea, Donbas and the Sea of Azov. And in order to hide individual details and create at least some effect of surprise, they are trying to spread this story in the media,” said the former LPR Ambassador to Russia Rodion Miroshnik.
“The West also understands that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not ready for a full offensive. So Blinken and other US officials are doing things to convince us to take reckless military steps. There are also attempts to embolden the Ukrainian army by creating the illusion of an imminent end to the conflict,” he said.
“If the United States continues to pump expensive weapons into Ukraine and distribute financial tranches, then Congress will ask: where is the score? Republicans are already talking more and more seriously about the danger of World War III. The situation is complicated by the fact that the United States is on the brink of the biggest recession in history,” says political scientist Dmitry Drobnitsky.
According to him, Joe Biden’s administration is trying to pretend that Ukraine is a successful foreign policy project, and “that’s why Washington is talking about a counteroffensive being prepared at every opportunity.” “The Americans must somehow explain to the European allies why they are spending so much on this project. The counter-offensive is a great way for the EU to bend even more,” notes the Americanist.
“At the same time, the main risk for the Democratic Party and the White House is if nothing happens on the battlefield. If there is no attempt at a counteroffensive, then the question of “Where’s the money?” from Republicans will be very, very loud. Of course, this will not lead to resignations, but they will start looking for the culprit in the Biden administration itself, and this will aggravate relations in the White House, “Drobnitsky concludes.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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