“A virus which circulates, which multiplies, will mutate. It is not surprising”, explains Nathan Clumeck. “In virology, it’s a concept that we know very well.” The professor says he is therefore “reassured” by the announcement of the pharmaceutical company Moderna about the effectiveness of its vaccine with regard to the British and South African strains.
However, according to Professor Emeritus, although these variants are more contagious, that does not mean that a third wave is inevitable: “When cases exploded in the United Kingdom, it was on the occasion of holidays, gatherings in bars, in families … where you weren’t wearing a mask. There is therefore an amplifying effect, “he adds.
Schools closely watched
Regarding schools, Nathan Clumeck does not want to be alarmist: “The school is the reflection of society. The fact that there are infected children is not surprising. All the more so as the teachers underline the difficulty for young people to keep the masks. The virus can therefore spread more easily, “he explains. “We will have to see the future, but currently the increase in contamination is not overwhelming in schools.”
He also believes that it would be interesting for the members of GEMS (Group of Experts on Crisis Strategy for Covid-19, editor’s note) could share the data they have, in particular on the sources of contamination: “This would add credibility to the measures and thus strengthen the support of the population. “
A balance to be found between relaunching and controlling the pandemic
Before hoping for a general easing of measures, it is necessary to reach the symbolic threshold of 800 contaminations per day for 3 weeks and a daily hospital admission rate that remains below 75 for at least a week. We are still far from it.
“These are arbitrary figures”, underlines the specialist in infectious diseases, “the Chinese estimated that there was zero contamination”. “We must find a balance between restrictive measures and objectives to be achieved and it is very complicated,” he admits. “You just have to see what’s going on in the Netherlands.”
According to Nathan Clumeck, given the current figures, we will not reach the symbolic threshold until March, or even further: “I don’t know if people’s patience will go that far.”
Vaccination not fast enough
Above all, this pandemic is a race between the coronavirus and vaccination, recalls the professor: “I must admit that the virus has a slight lead over us”, he laments. “There was a whole series of promises from the pharmaceutical companies, but now that we are in the real world, we realize that there are a number of obstacles.”
Therefore, Nathan Clumeck says that it will be necessary to change the vaccination strategy in the territory in the future.
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