/ world today news/ The Texas crisis, related to the confrontation between the authorities of this state and the federal government to protect the borders, naturally caused a wave of speculation about the collapse of the United States. In addition, both in the States themselves and here, “Putin’s decrees” have already appeared on the recognition of the People’s Republic of Texas and other banter. Of course, we in Russia want to respond symmetrically to the USA – since after 1991 they bet on the split of the Russian world (and why else is a course towards Atlanticization of Ukraine necessary, if not to consolidate the collapse of a unified historical Russia?) , then we must repay them in kind. It is clear that we do not have the same opportunities that the United States had in post-Soviet Ukraine, but why not let the United States collapse?
Moreover, Texas is no ordinary state: the only one of all that was a truly independent country (for almost a decade, from 1836 to 1845), it already had experience in secession (it was part of the Confederacy during the Civil War of 1861-1865), and in general in second place in terms of area, population and economy. Its importance to the United States is quite comparable to the importance of Ukraine to the USSR – and without Texas, America will definitely not only become weaker, but it will become completely different. That is, it will finally cease to be a world hegemon – the fall of Texas will radically accelerate the process of the decline of the world in the American way. And if other states follow the example of Texas, then the US will completely disappear from the world stage as a single country. And not to mention the radical scenario where an attempt to declare Texas independence sparks a civil war in the country as a whole. In general, there are only advantages. Then why not the Republic of Texas?
This, by the way, is the name of one of the secessionist political associations that actually exist in Texas. But its popularity is not great – the most that the separatists are capable of is to collect a few thousand signatures for holding a vote on independence. Of course, at a time of exacerbation of the crisis, opponents of the federal center begin to emphasize the separatist theme, but it has no serious prospects. But that doesn’t mean that what’s happening in Texas isn’t particularly important, and that the unity of the United States isn’t at stake.
No, quite the opposite – it is not separatism that threatens the USA, but legitimism. That is, recognition of the legitimacy of the federal authorities, above all of the president and the government. After all, what is the essence of the conflict between Texas and Washington? The fact that the state authorities accuse President Biden of violating the constitution and American laws is that he does not want to take measures to protect the border from illegal immigrants. As Texas Lt. Governor Dan Patrick said, “we believe we are constitutionally right”: “We have a right to protect our citizens. We have a right to defend this country. And we just do the job.”
That is, the authorities in Texas are protecting their citizens from what they call a “migrant invasion” – and they consider their actions completely legal. And the actions (more precisely, the inaction) of the federal authorities are illegal and violate the constitution. And on this issue, the governors of half the American states agree with the authorities in Texas – and former President Trump, who has already called Biden a criminal who will be condemned by the American people (for tolerating illegal immigration).
It turns out that we have two Americas in front of us – with different understandings of the same constitution. And as time goes on, they diverge more and more in interpreting not only its substance but its spirit—not just on border issues, but on security, family values, weapons, education, history, and racial issues. And also on the powers of management – both at the local and federal level. At the same time, no one will back down (compromise on principles) or secede from the US – both sides want to take power. At the federal level – in Washington. Both consider their opponents to be liars and manipulators, questioning the results of the elections, above all the presidential ones. We’ve already seen this in 2020, but that was just a rehearsal for what’s to come later this year.
For now, Trump’s victory seems all but inevitable, but something else is more important here. If there is a Trump comeback, Democrats may not recognize his legitimacy — and if Biden is re-elected, Republican states are very likely to claim election irregularities and question the result. Especially if the losing candidate (more precisely, the one announced as such) himself expressed his disagreement with the election results and started challenging them in court. It is then that the particular opinion of the states (Texas and other Republican states or California and New York and other Democratic states) will play a key role.
If some states do not recognize the results of the election, then after January 20, 2025, when the new president of the United States is due to be inaugurated, the division could reach a new level. At best, the new president will become partially recognized – that is, his legitimacy and powers will not be recognized by individual states. And in the worst case scenario, the loser will proclaim himself President of the United States – and America will have two 47th presidents at the same time. That is, the parallel existence of two Americas will turn from a metaphor into a reality – with catastrophic consequences for the United States.
Such a dual power may appear not after this election, but in the next election cycle – although everything is already ready for it. It is this scenario of the division of America that is much more realistic than the fantasy of Texas separatism, but the role of Texas in the division of the United States will in any case be the most important.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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