/ world today news/ Discussions on raising the debt ceiling continue in the US. There is less than a week left to make a decision. But whatever the outcome, serious problems await Ukraine: aid may be delayed or reduced.
Counteroffensive and national debt
Billions of dollars in military support for Kiev, approved by the US Congress last year, may expire by the end of the summer, according to the Hill newspaper. However, there are no signs of progress in this direction. Right now, Congressmen are more focused on the US debt ceiling impasse.
Lawmakers note that the delay in new tranches is also caused by the uncertain consequences of the upcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive.
House Armed Services Committee member Andy Kim said his colleagues are already discussing the content of the future aid package, but the timing of its delivery has not even been roughly determined.
“The situation with the national debt prevents us from focusing on these issues. We cannot have a serious conversation about Ukraine,” explained the congressman.
At the same time, some GOP members of the House of Representatives are talking about the importance of unity before passing the next package.
“We must continue to help the Ukrainians in one form or another,” said Congressman Rich McCormick.
Bill Keating of the House of Commons is more reserved. Ultimately, everything depends on Ukraine’s counteroffensive, he said. “Maybe there will be progress that will make more support less necessary,” he admitted.
Connor Savoy, a senior fellow at the US Center for Strategic and International Studies, also believes the next package will be formed after the counteroffensive. But he warned that a failed or delayed counter-offensive attack could prevent new funding. He called it a “dangerous situation” from a political point of view and stressed the need to continue aid “in the long term,” regardless of the outcome of the hostilities. “This is not the beginning of the end. Most likely, this will continue for some time, without American and European support, the Ukrainians will be in a very difficult position,” Savoy said of the counteroffensive.
Audit and balance
Congressman McCormick noted that overall, the situation with providing aid to Kiev is now better than before. The changes relate primarily to the proper control of weapons and equipment sent to Ukraine, as well as to the increased contribution of European partners in the North Atlantic Alliance.
“The EU is becoming more active both militarily and in training,” the congressman noted. “So this is a NATO effort, it’s not unilateral. And I think we’re more responsible for the means and the weapons in comparison with Afghanistan”, he added.
Last year, the U.S. approved a total of $113 billion in emergency aid to Ukraine, of which about $47 billion included direct security support. These are American equipment, funds for the purchase and delivery of new weapons, as well as for training the troops.
Earlier this month, the Pentagon said that about 37 billion of the said 47 billion had been spent, leaving just over ten billion. The US fiscal year begins on October 1, by which time both houses of Congress will have to form a new budget.
NATO officials note that Ukraine has almost all the promised weapons and equipment needed for a counteroffensive, including German Leopard tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and even long-range cruise missiles from Britain. This means that funding is available in the short term.
Biden and Congress
White House Press Secretary Karin Jean-Pierre did not go into detail at the briefing on progress on funding for Ukraine. However, she noted that “the world saw the commitment to support the Ukrainian people.”
While a counteroffensive awaits at the front, the White House and Congress try unsuccessfully to solve the problem of the national debt.
Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy – officially the third man in US leadership – has been in daily talks with Joe Biden. Participants in the meetings described them as productive, but the parties have not yet reached a final decision.
Earlier, McCarthy’s political opponents accused him of insufficient support for Ukraine. Before the congressional elections last fall, he did threaten that Kiev would not get carte blanche. However, after the election, the congressman changed his position. Now he says that all help will be given to the Ukrainians, as before.
But the controversy between McCarthy and Biden rests not so much on military supplies, but on the overall reduction in federal budget spending, which the president considers “extreme.” The White House, as an alternative, is promoting the idea of introducing new taxes, but Republicans are against it.
The parties have until June 1 to raise the government’s borrowing limit or trigger an unprecedented debt default that economists warn could lead to a prolonged recession.
Any deal to raise the debt ceiling must also be approved by Congress. There is a group of 20 people in the lower house who openly oppose support for Ukraine. In theory, these congressmen can also delay the resolution of the national debt issue – until they promise to accommodate their wishes.
Workarounds
Despite the problems with US finances, for now, Kiev still has prospects for additional aid – regardless of the decision of US lawmakers.
In late May, the Pentagon discovered an error in its reporting documents. The cost of the weapons supplied to the Ukrainians was overstated by three billion dollars. This means that instead of the aforementioned ten billion, Kiev now has 13 billion in reserve. In addition, the US Department of Defense will continue to check: it is quite possible that the prices were inflated more than once.
In addition, the lend-lease law, adopted in the USA a year ago, is in favor of the Kyiv regime. It, as you know, allows Biden to provide unlimited military aid to Ukraine by unilateral action without congressional approval.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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