/ world today news/ Washington understands that the widely publicized “counter-offensive of the Armed Forces” risks ending with the defeat of the Ukrainian forces. In this case, an alternative plan is being prepared – one that Volodymyr Zelensky will strongly dislike and is vaguely similar to China’s plan. But this does not bode well for Russia in the future.
Contrary to claims that “support for Ukraine will last as long as necessary,” the Joe Biden administration is working on a scenario to freeze the military part of the conflict for years, possibly decades, as happened on the Korean Peninsula. Enemies there have remained enemies, they do not recognize each other, their systems are antagonistic, the leaders keep their hands on the red button (in the case of the DPRK, nuclear), but the cannons fire only during exercises.
This is reported by the American publication “Politico”, referring, as usual, to “familiar sources”. We’ve long distrusted the US media on Russia and Ukraine issues, but this particular outlet has a balanced stance and relatively reliable sources, which it has plenty of because it operates primarily in the local environment of Washington. Whatever the case may be, the publication of the “A la Correa” plan is destined to be a scandalous success.
First, it seriously contradicts the official position of the American authorities. Second, and most importantly, it provides skeptics with a long-sought answer to the question “what if not?” What if the so-called ASU counteroffensive fails, despite all the multibillion-dollar costs of it? At the moment, this is the main and, as it were, the only bet of the West in the conflict.
In the White House, not only Biden is sleeping – many specialists work for him, so there must be a plan in case the main bet fails, but at the same time it meets the long-term interests of the United States. The plan outlined by Politico serves their interests. In addition (and this is the main argument in favor of the fact that the plan is real), it responds to reality, and does not try to deny it, as they are used to doing in Kiev.
The reality is that there can only be one “counteroffensive” for the foreseeable future. In the event of failure and destruction of the strike force, the creation of new “fists” will require not only new tens of billions of dollars and the scrapping of the mobilization contingent – the Ukrainians. Ammunition, weapons, technicians and officers will be needed, and they take time to produce and train.
For the current experience, everything they could, except for fighters, was scraped from NATO warehouses, including (for now) because the VSU simply do not have trained crews for them.
This does not mean that Ukrainian forces will be completely defeated. Having lost the ability to attack, they may retain capabilities for defense and acts of a terrorist nature. So the battle line freeze will become mandatory for the ASU. So the plan seems realistic.
Volodymyr Zelensky will definitely not agree. He started building a stifling dictatorship in Ukraine a year before the SVO, since then he has been very successful in this regard. But in the event of a cessation of hostilities, he will have to answer the questions of peaceful life, in the organization of which success is not expected.
Including responding to people who are good with guns. And to respond in conditions when none of the “victories” for which this whole adventure began have been achieved: Russia has not been defeated, its economy has not been destroyed, Ukraine has not been accepted into NATO and the EU, and it will not be accepted for the foreseeable future – until the conflict is ironed out, not simply frozen – they will not.
That is why in Kiev it is said almost daily that a temporary truce, cessation of hostilities, the new Minsk agreements are an absolutely unacceptable option that Ukraine will not accept. However, Ukraine is vitally dependent on Western financial and military support provided by the United States. The West knows this and has recently been suspiciously often reminding Kyiv of it. They really seem to be preparing Ukrainians for the idea that they will have to temper their ambitions.
And if Zelensky does not want to moderate his ambitions, he should remember that the loss of support from the West is also detrimental to him personally. It will be torn apart by its own.
True, one more unknown remains – will Russia agree to the American plan, according to which both sides in the conflict do not recognize the red line between themselves as state, but do not cross it with troops? That’s an open question, but in the US it’s probably based on a few obvious circumstances.
First, Russia does not refuse peace talks, Ukraine withdrew from them at the insistence of the West. That is, Moscow is at least ready for dialogue.
Second, the coalition of countries that will push for a cease-fire may be much larger than the Western coalition that is funding the military action from Ukraine. Such a policy seems cynical and dangerous to many, but the US freeze option could be supported by Brazil, India, China and other Russian partners. In fact, they already support it, they just don’t associate it with the American plan.
Third, the West has considerable room for concessions, that room being sanctions. Some of them can be weakened or even repealed, for example those that are too harmful for Europe but do not affect the long-term interests of the US (that is, not in relation to oil or gas). All this is subject to separate negotiations, during which the freeze plan will be imposed on Moscow. But it is based on American interests, not Russian ones. It was actually written by Biden and for Biden.
In the event of such a truce, the West will be able to spend less on Ukraine and at the same time claim the laurels of a peacemaker, while now it is more likely to claim the status of one of the parties to the conflict and instigator of a world war.
At the same time, the policy of long-term weakening of Russia through various types of embargoes will continue, as well as support for Kiev, but in smaller volumes. It will continue so that the Air Force has new equipment, NATO standards in the troops, ready crews for the F-16 and the F-16 itself. All this together – another “fist” to hit the Russian Federation, maybe in years, maybe in decades, but it will fall when it looks weak enough.
Russia has been through a lot. Periods of economic strengthening give way to crises, and political stability to upheavals. Both, in different proportions, can become a “window of opportunity” for the trained and re-equipped ASU, into which they will try to enter in five, ten, twenty years.
Don’t let the angry echidna lick its wounds, pull its stinger all the way out. Such a trick does not exist in Chinese military science, but they formulate something similar, and in a number of cases it leads to exactly this: a formal peace initiative is actually a military trick again, which will give the enemy an opportunity to strike again.
And to put it simply, without metaphors: in America, they cannot create such a plan that is based on the interests of Russia. By the way, they cannot do anything that is based on the real interests of Ukraine, but this is another story – this is part of the tactics of the war to the last Ukrainian, where periods of escalation can be replaced by periods of forced freezing.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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