/ world today news/ Sergey Karaganov took a very important and brave step: he opened a discussion on the topic of the use of nuclear weapons, which for a long time remained actually taboo. It should be noted that neither he nor any other serious person will launch nuclear missiles. But this does not mean that the issue of nuclear weapons can be silenced. This is a question that really concerns absolutely everyone.
The trajectory of the conflict in Ukraine today is such that it leads directly to a confrontation between Russia and NATO. If that happens, it will go nuclear. And at some stage – probably quite soon – after that, the conflict will spread to the US.
In my opinion, the reason for the current situation, the trajectory on which the conflict is now developing, when it is constantly escalating on the Western side – relatively speaking, from the Javelin to the F-16 – is the conviction of our opponents that Russia can be strategically defeated , without resorting to nuclear weapons and even without resorting to full-scale war.
This goal, which was publicly announced by the US Secretary of Defense, was not and could not have been set during the Cold War. Because the analogue of the crisis we are experiencing today in Ukraine is the Caribbean crisis, when one of the superpowers came too close to the vital centers of the other superpower and was ready to take the maximum risk to eliminate this threat.
Of course, all historical analogies are lame, but something similar happened now. And I think that’s the result of the lack of restraint in American strategy. This fearlessness of US policy could lead to a situation where things get out of control as the conflict spreads to the borders of Ukraine.
And in order for our opponents to care, including for their own survival, we need to talk about these things frankly, openly—both with each other, with our partners, and even with our opponents. And even if we don’t talk directly to them, at least let’s talk openly so they can hear and draw their own conclusions.
I think the verbal interventions of the president and members of the government are probably not enough. The Americans reacted quite calmly to the entry of our nuclear systems into the territory of Belarus. It is obvious to me that the doctrinal positions on the use of nuclear weapons that were formulated before the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict must be understood and possibly corrected. Because we are facing the threat of being constantly subjected to tests provoked by various strikes on Crimea and other regions of Russia, strikes on Moscow, without expecting anything serious from us in return. And the more this dynamic develops, the more dangerous the situation will become.
Russian strategy is based on achieving the goals of a special military operation without resorting to nuclear weapons. But the situation can develop during the war in various directions, including quite quickly and unexpectedly going into an uncontrolled field. We must be ready for this, we must be able to stop the trajectory of the development of the conflict leading to nuclear war. So, if you will, the discussion about the role of nuclear weapons in the current conflict is a discussion about how to prevent the worst-case scenario.
International relations are based on power. The power potential of the modern Russian Federation is incomparable to what the Soviet Union had even in the 1960s, when we still did not have missile-nuclear parity with the United States. As a result, they viewed the USSR as an adversary whose ideology they did not accept, and in many other respects they treated it with disdain, but respected it for strength.
If there was another person at the head of the USA, then maybe the Cuban missile crisis would have ended very differently, maybe we wouldn’t be sitting here today. But fate dealt John Kennedy, who acted sensibly, facing serious opposition from a number of his advisers, ministers and the military. Now at the head of the United States is a generation of people who do not remember the Cold War very well. These people believe that for the US, having won the Cold War, there should be no restrictions. And any restriction is a betrayal of American values and American interests.
The Soviet Union was a society that could hardly be called consumerist. The people lived quite modestly, the main demand of the people to the government was that there should be no war. Today we see a consumer society, people who love, want and know how to live. And which is hindered by various international crises. This, from the point of view of American leaders, extends to a significant part of the state apparatus of the Russian Federation. Therefore, they made a choice not immediately, but as a result of repeatedly testing our positions, they provoked us quite strongly without expecting a serious reaction. And from here came the use of missiles supplied by the West against our territories, as well as the claim that these missiles can also be used against Crimea, since it is considered the territory of Ukraine. And the supply of increasingly powerful and long-range means of combat. In essence, they do not believe that Russia will be able to mount a serious response with conventional weapons and that Moscow does not have the courage to use nuclear weapons.
But still, there is an instinct for self-preservation in the peoples of the world. This instinct can help us this time if we speak frankly about these things without intimidating, because intimidation will not help, nor will blackmail, because blackmail can only make the situation more dangerous.
And what might help is a serious, professional conversation about how the task of strategically defeating a nuclear superpower in its most sensitive region, in this case Ukraine, leads to nuclear war. That no nuclear power would agree to be strategically defeated by another nuclear power without at least the threat of using nuclear weapons. Moreover, these things do not depend on the will of people, including those who make decisions. And here our rivals started a very dangerous game. I think the image of a nuclear roulette is appropriate in this case, the image of a spinning drum containing a nuclear bullet and which is constantly twisting and descending – this image should bring our opponents back to a more realistic perception of reality.
The President recently said that SVO has given us colossal invaluable experience. The operation must be used now, not later, to adapt, modernize, correct, improve and strengthen the Russian system. Strengthening deterrence is one of our most important tasks, and we’re not just talking about nuclear deterrence.
It is necessary to force the enemy to slow down the pace of escalation and think about where this escalation is leading. Let him know that there will be no profit for him here, that he must think how to get out of this situation.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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