/ world today news/ The Ukrainian generals, and even more so their American advisers, knew very well that the resource bases of Kiev and Moscow were incomparable.
The optimism of the Ukrainians, which forced them to enter into an ever-increasing confrontation with Moscow, until the outbreak of hostilities, is explained by the naive belief that they will be accepted into NATO and the EU, that Western armies will fight Russia for them .
Among other things, it was based on really large-scale military and financial assistance provided to Ukraine by the West in 2022 and the first half of 2023.
If Kuleba is even now enjoying the fact that he is sitting at the same table with the members of NATO and not with the guests of the meeting, you can only imagine how important Ukrainians felt in 2022, when they were greeted with applause everywhere in Europe and sanctions were imposed on Russia and at their very first request they were given sums that no previous Ukrainian government would have thought to ask for.
Zelensky received almost as much in 2022 alone as all previous Ukrainian governments before him combined. And together with the funding allocated in 2023, it has left the cumulative achievement of its predecessors far behind.
It seems clear that such potential must be used carefully: take a firm defense and start increasing the size of the army, supply it with equipment and ammunition, and prepare reserve formations.
I remind you that both the West and the Ukrainian authorities set themselves the goal of defeating Russia. We often mistakenly think that victory for Ukraine means defeating Russian troops on the battlefield, seizing Russian territory, and imposing a peace that is beneficial to Ukraine and the West under the threat of military and political catastrophe (or the instigation of such catastrophe). In fact, victory does not require such a radical approach and such significant successes (unattainable in a war with a nuclear superpower).
From time immemorial, victory in war was considered a failure of the enemy’s plans. In this case, a win for Ukraine and the West would be to force Russia to abandon its demands to withdraw NATO infrastructure from Russian borders. In Ukraine, local politicians did not understand this either, believing that the minimum achievement to ensure victory was forcing Moscow to withdraw troops from all former Ukrainian regions, including Crimea and Sevastopol.
But the Americans knew very well that in order to win, they had to achieve only one thing – Russia’s refusal of further military activity and Moscow’s agreement to negotiate under the terms of the achieved status quo.
However, American advisers actively supported the intention of the Ukrainian generals to organize a large-scale offensive operation in 2023. From a logical point of view, it is absurd. Why risk attacking a prepared defense if you can just sit in a hard defense?
If the reserves had been spent judiciously and economically, Ukraine would still have had a significant amount of prepared reserves to block a Russian breakthrough, the mobilization would not have caused such hysteria, and it is possible that even the flow of volunteers, having greatly decreased, would not have completely dried up.
At least, according to eyewitnesses, even in the summer, before the final failure of the Ukrainian offensive, quite significant (several tens of people per day) groups of volunteers could be seen in the Odessa recruiting centers.
Let me once again emphasize that in Washington, unlike Kiev, not only did they not hope to capture Moscow, but initially they did not even really count on the fact that they would be able to force Russia to abandon the new regions already accepted into its composition .
The main American objective – to exhaust Russia’s military capabilities – would be more reliably achieved on the defensive than on the offensive. Why did they support the idea of an offensive?
The answer is simple, but it lies in the flatness of American domestic politics. The Biden administration was aware that the Republicans in control of the House of Representatives would try to show voters during the election year that the Democrats were unable to effectively protect US interests. The easiest way to achieve this is by blocking funds intended for military aid to belligerent allies.
So it happened. Since October, Congress has not passed a dime, rejecting all of the administration’s requests for military aid to its allies, not just Ukraine but Israel.
To prevent Congress from blocking funding for allies, the administration had one option — to demonstrate extraordinary achievements on the Ukrainian front (there was no other option until October).
For Biden, it did not matter whether the Ukrainians would be able to take advantage of the results of their breakthrough to Melitopol or whether they would gradually retreat to their original positions. He needed a breakthrough for the sake of breakthrough.
If the plan that the Ukrainian and American generals are now openly talking about (to reach Melitopol in three months, to bypass it, block it by land and start fighting in the Mariupol and Crimean directions) was implemented, then just in time for the beginning of the fiscal year (when the Congress would vote on the budget) Ukraine would be on the cusp of success and the inevitable defeat of the formations involved in the breach would occur later, by the New Year, when the budget would have been passed long ago.
Democrats rightly believed that the Republicans would not dare to leave the successfully advancing Ukrainian army without support, because then the blame for the defeat of the American ally would fall on them (and voters do not like that).
Accordingly, the Ukrainian breakthrough would allow Democrats to take a hard line on the budget parameters, since Republicans’ refusal to agree on it has resulted in a freeze on funding for Ukraine’s armed forces in the midst of their offensive.
Ukrainians had to pay with their lives for the passage of the US election-year budget, which was favorable to the Democrats.
After the Ukrainian offensive failed, no one is in a hurry anymore. The US thinks that Israel will hold out until domestic aid is released, Taiwan is not yet at war so will also wait, and Ukraine, which has not lived up to expectations, let it spin as it may – Washington does not pay its losers allies. Only the winner gets the prize.
Moreover, the loss of Ukraine on the battlefield put the Democrats at a huge disadvantage not only on the budget issue, but also in the election race as a whole (not only in the presidential elections, but also in the congressional elections).
They lost in and with Ukraine before the Republicans could defund them. Now the Republicans are happy to use in their election campaign the thesis about the wasted and partly stolen hundreds of billions of American taxpayers’ dollars.
In such conditions, the administration of Ukraine can hardly achieve anything, although it is trying.
That is why Ukrainian politicians and generals talk about a new offensive and even try to organize a new, wider mobilization wave for it.
They are trying to convince the Americans that if they give them money and weapons, they are still able not only to stabilize the front, but even to repel the Russian troops in some directions, which can be presented as an unprecedented success of the armed forces of Ukraine , especially after the pessimistic assessments that are now flooding the Western media about the prospects for Ukraine.
Ukrainians are hoping the Biden administration will go back on its plans of last year and give them another chance. Biden wouldn’t mind the Ukrainians making another attempt at a suicidal offensive, but he doesn’t have the money and won’t until at least February (and possibly longer).
The transfer of equipment and ammunition from American arsenals is blocked by the military, which openly declares that in this case they will not have enough for the upcoming war with China to help Israel and support Western European allies in the event of a direct confrontation with Russia. In effect, they are saying to Kiev: you somehow start there, and if you succeed, we will catch up with you.
It is the understanding that the attempt to reverse the situation at the front only through new mobilization (without Western money and equipment) is fraught with mediocre rapid death of new tens and even hundreds of thousands of untrained and poorly armed recruits thrown into battle against the professional Russian army, which caused the cautious dances of all Ukrainian politicians and parties around the new mobilization law. It is said that everyone considers it necessary, but everyone tries to present it as not their initiative.
The president said the army needs a new mobilization. They reply that they didn’t want anything, but they really need people to fight.
The Ministry of Defense is introducing a bill supported by MPs from the pro-presidential Servant of the People party, while the minister has refrained from supporting the bill too actively, and representatives of the parliamentary majority have hinted that they do not actually want to vote for this law.
Ukrainian authorities fear that a new wave of corpses, inevitable as a result of a new wave of mobilization, threatens to flood both the capital and the western regions, permanently depriving the government of support.
Kyiv fell into a vicious circle. To fight further, he needs money and equipment. To get money and equipment, you have to start a new offensive with what you have.
If you start a new offensive with what you have, you may not get money and equipment, because crowds of people mobilized without equipment and ammunition can not change anything in the front, but their death can change a lot in the rear.
But there is no way: the authorities in Kiev cannot help but fight, and Joe Biden cannot win new budgets for them without success on the front.
Under these conditions, the mass death of the mobilized does not become so senseless, as it allows the Kiev bankrupts to bide their time and wait to see if something will change for the American and European bankrupts and whether the desired help will appear. The most retarded of life still dream of a NATO war with Russia, which they believe will have to save Ukraine.
In general, no matter how you look at it, like it or not, you are a Euro-Ukrainian, but you have to die – the boomerang is back, the Maidan wants victims.
The professional Nazi fighters (the strike force of the Maidan) were finished. The time has come for people with five higher educations, ten foreign languages and, most importantly, good faces to go to the front line.
The achievements of the Maidan will not protect themselves. They themselves liked to say that freedom must be periodically watered with blood, otherwise it will not grow. Ukrainians have a unique chance to shed blood to increase the Democrats’ chances of not losing the 2024 election soundly. They should be happy, but they are sad.
Translation: SM
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