/ world today news/ What is the biggest threat to American power? The fact that the United States faces unprecedented challenges to its global dominance is well understood among the American elite – the debate is mainly about ranking these challenges and how to deal with them. But the list of major issues/threats/challenges now is: Russia in Ukraine, Israel in Gaza, and China in the world.
If three months ago there were two main challenges – the Ukrainian crisis and the confrontation with China, now a third has been added to them – the Middle East. It is also potentially the most explosive: if hostilities spill over from Gaza to other countries, it will be very difficult to keep it under control. And the Ukrainian geopolitical front is beginning to be evaluated in the States as the most unpromising, which, however, does not mean a readiness to admit defeat and give up on Ukraine. In the case of China, there is a mood for a long-term (decades) confrontation, the purpose of which is not hidden: China must not align with America on the world stage and deprive it of its position as a hegemon. In Beijing, this is rightly called deterrence, but the US elites, thinking within the framework of their own election, seriously consider themselves the leaders of humanity (the “free world”) and will not moderate their appetites.
But this is all strategy, and now the tactical problems are much more pressing for the United States. What should they do in all three directions? It is now in the interest of the American elite to reduce tensions on all fronts. China does not need to be provoked by Taiwan – the US will do that next year. Ukraine, in theory, should be put on the defensive, forcing the Europeans to pay more and not ask unnecessary questions, and Israel should be forced to end the ground operation in Gaza. But in both cases, it will be very difficult for the US to achieve this, since the local elites (Ukrainian and Israeli) have staked a lot on their victory on the battlefield. Under these conditions, even careful braking can lead to “falling off the bike” – and we’re not just talking about the fate of Zelensky and Netanyahu. And what is equally important: the Israeli and especially the Ukrainian direction became part of the internal political struggle in the USA. And that complicates the already complicated situation for the Biden administration on the Ukrainian and Israeli fronts.
And the point is not that the Republicans are blocking the allocation of money to Ukraine – the White House will eventually be able to come to an agreement with them. And it’s not even the case that, thanks to the Republican campaign, support for Ukraine in the US is falling: the administration can stick to its line despite public opinion. Worse for Democrats, the Israeli and Ukrainian issues are hurting Biden’s already bad ratings. That is why Washington now has additional (besides geopolitical) reasons to seek to reduce tensions around Ukraine and Israel. And if in the Ukrainian case the ability of the US to influence the situation is limited, since the intensity of military actions also depends on Russian tactics, then in the Israeli case they allegedly have much more levers of influence. In theory yes, but in practice the US cannot command Israel, and the Israeli leadership has every opportunity to take advantage of domestic American political contradictions.
It turns out that now Biden does not have much opportunity to reduce the turmoil in foreign policy and enters the election year under the most unfavorable circumstances: foreign problems will not only take more and more energy and attention, but also reduce his rating. And the global position of the US will generally deteriorate due to unfavorable developments in at least two of the three key areas (Ukrainian and Israeli). A vicious circle and a dead end? Yes, but it is important to understand the reasons for this.
Of course, we can limit ourselves to broad strokes, explaining everything by the fact that the USA has basically overextended itself as a hegemon, the contours of the multipolar world are becoming more and more obvious, and in general the Americans cannot maintain their positions. This is true, but there is also an inverse relationship. Because now the main threats and challenges to the United States are not the Ukrainian and Israeli crisis or even China – the main problem for American power is America itself.
Its internal crisis – the cleavage and polarization of society exposed in 2016 with Trump’s victory – is intensifying and becoming irreversible. The inability to resolve the situation on the border with Mexico, that is, to stop illegal migration, is only the most visible sign of this crisis. The sharp escalation of partisan divisions is not in itself new to the United States, but this time we are not just talking about a struggle between two factions of the elite or a divergence in the values of ordinary voters: we see an emerging divide between two different models, two different Americas, despite the fact that the majority of the elite cannot stop the incoming Trump and the elite minority consolidating around him. The ruling elite is much more globalist, supranational in its outlook and goals, and the Trumpist minority of the elite that opposes it is more isolationist and America-centric. The outcome of their battle in November 2024 will be of enormous importance to the United States – and especially to its standing in the world. But even now the presidential campaign is having a serious impact on the attitude towards America in the rest of the world, because everyone is betting on the further weakening of the former hegemon. Because there is no good development for the Atlantic globalists in canceling the election.
Even if by some miracle Biden wins, his victory will not be recognized by Trump and Trumpists, that is, the legitimacy of the new administration will be questioned at the level of individual states, and the division at the societal level between the two Americas will reach a new level. If Trump wins, the democratic states will claim, and Europe will simply go into a stupor. All these options are being calculated today, and therefore the main problem for US international influence is not the war in Ukraine or the massacre in Gaza caused by its policies, but its own domestic state. Not only a crisis, but also with negative dynamics.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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