The US is in the unpleasant position of being both actively involved in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and at the same time being an observer on the periphery, commented Weichert
Washington, USA 31 Aug 2023, 16:55 27630 read 9 comments
There are two words that could immediately end the war in Ukraine: “compromise peace.” The only way to end the conflict is a compromise between Moscow and Kiev, but the prospects for achieving it are increasingly dim, writes political scientist Brandon Weichert in an article for the American online publication 19FortyFive.
Given the difficulties of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia is increasingly convinced of the probability of victory on the battlefield, while Western leaders continue to mistakenly believe in the ability of Kiev to turn the tide of hostilities, the expert noted, reports “Focus”. .
The US is in the unpleasant position of being both actively involved in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and at the same time being an observer on the periphery, commented Weichert.
As it stands, the conflict appears to be officially at an impasse, the author notes. According to him, Ukraine does not have enough manpower, resources and means to continue fighting. And with the Ukrainians losing their offensive capabilities due to attrition, it looks like the Russians could gain significant advantages.
American and NATO leaders refuse to see the confrontation between Moscow and Kiev as a dispute between two branches of the Slavic people, preferring instead to recklessly pump Kiev with “a poisonous brew of hope and lethal aid that cannot turn the tide of the conflict in favor of Ukraine”, warns the expert.
Right now, the countries need a compromise, because if the military actions reach a dead end, there is a great risk that the conflict will turn into a nuclear war, the political scientist is convinced. In addition, the prolongation of the conflict is fraught with serious disruptions in the world economy. We must not forget that the election of a new US president could end Washington’s comprehensive support for Kiev’s military efforts, he also recalled.
According to the author of the article, the Ukrainians will never be able to push the Russians out of their fortified positions in the eastern regions of the country. Meanwhile, any serious attempt by Kiev to take back the Crimean peninsula will end in failure for Ukraine or a tactical nuclear strike by Russia.
However, the prospects for a deal between Moscow and Kiev are becoming increasingly unclear, the specialist notes. Although Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was ready to strike a deal with Russia in the first months after the conflict broke out, according to several sources – notably former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett – US and British leaders have put heavy pressure on him to prevent him from insisting on a peaceful settlement.
Since then, the Ukrainians changed their military strategy from defensive to offensive and ran into problems, the political scientist recalls. For their part, Western leaders were “confused with illusions” that the Russian military was doomed. When this did not happen, the rhetoric shifted to predictions of the inevitable fall of Vladimir Putin, but “this man survived all the storms,” notes the American political scientist .
According to him, every one of the assumptions of Western leaders has been proven wrong. “Russia is not falling apart, and Putin’s regime is getting stronger. Moscow is adapting – and they are fighting back.”
It will thus be more difficult to achieve peace, as the Russians become increasingly convinced of the possibility of victory on the battlefield, and the West is still blinded by the idea that Ukrainian forces are capable of winning at the tactical level. Under such conditions, the probability of concluding peace is low, the specialist concludes.
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2023-08-31 13:55:55
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