The movement towards greater support for Ukraine in the European Union is taking place, but Ukraine needs help already this week, this month, this spring – in the fall or next year it may be too late, Kristīne Bērziņa, head of the German Marshall Fund’s Northern approach and security policy researcher, assessed in the Latvian Radio program “Safeguard”.
The mood in Munich was mostly somber
The Munich Security Conference has just taken place, where the war in Ukraine was also the focus of attention this year. There was a lot of discussion about insufficient support for Ukraine and how Europe itself could strengthen its defense industry. Several officials emphasized that we should finally move from words to deeds.
“Europe is full of political determination in words, and it looks like action will now start to move in the right direction. In order for action to be serious, it must be coordinated among Europeans, and various things are happening that show that everything is moving towards more serious action. Of course , at the moment it is mostly still at the level of words,” Bērziņa admitted.
At the same time, real action is already taking place in Germany, for example. In order to increase ammunition production, a German-Danish joint venture has opened a new factory there.
“It is happening, there is some kind of production going on in a small way, but in Munich it became clear that Europe needs to create institutions that could contribute to greater European defense,” Berziņa emphasized.
For example, the president of the European Commission, Urzula von der Leyen, expressed the idea that the European Union would need a defense commissioner. One way or another, it is clear that institutions dedicated to defense issues are necessary in the European Union.
Expert Kristine Bērzina’s column in the program “Fuse”
Security policy expert Kristīne Bērziņa.
Photo: Toms Šics / Latvian Radio
Kristīne Bērziņa, an expert on security policy and a researcher at the Marshall Fund in Washington, will highlight the most important events of the week in the context of the world and Latvia, as well as those that may have been missed in the mass of information, as well as give a comment on why they are important and what impact could be caused.
“For the European Union, excluding Orbán and Hungary, the political understanding is clear and united – Russia poses a huge threat, Ukraine must be supported, but the question is – how? How can we now find finances and unite everyone to jointly invest in production?” explained Bērziņa.
There is reason to believe that after the European Parliament elections in the summer, these issues could finally be resolved. In addition, more activity can be observed at the level of the Member States.
“For example, there have been bilateral talks between Zelensky and Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, after which Zelensky continued his visit to Western Europe, flew to Paris and continued to receive practical support there, as far as we can understand, although all the details are not yet known. So, here progress is being made. The problem is that Ukraine needs help this week, this month, this spring, but all the solutions that are starting to appear and could improve the situation in the fall, winter and next year raise concerns that they will be too late,” Berziņa admitted.
How to move forward faster – there are no answers to this question yet, said the security policy expert. Denmark has already shown its position that Ukraine should give more of each country’s already existing military resources, because other countries do not need them at the moment, but neither Germany nor France continues this approach yet.
“It would be very desirable for the big countries to adopt such a dramatic position – it is needed now. I would say that determination was there in Munich, but that feeling was mostly gloomy. Navalny’s death overshadowed the whole event, because it is clear that the world has become more cruel. Before the conference, maybe there were slightly higher hopes for another possible path in Russia, but at the beginning of the conference it became clear that such a dream was just a dream,” Berziņa admitted.
Russia must not be allowed to charge the batteries
The lack of weapons clearly echoes on the front, last week Ukrainian forces had to leave Avdiyivka, a territory for which long battles took place.
“The question is, what happens after this victory for Russia, can Russia still be able to continue the attack and gain more territory in Ukraine, and especially threaten the strategic logistics centers behind Avdiyivka, because the city itself may not be so important, the question is inertia, the question is about symbolic victories, about determination on the side of Ukraine and about courage and holding on to it. Any defeat can negatively affect the further defense of Ukraine,” said Berziņa.
Also, any victory on the Russian side can encourage and motivate Russian soldiers to fight mercilessly and indulge in attacks.
“The question of motivation on the Russian side is important. The soldiers are often not prepared, their experience is small, the conditions are difficult, but the victory encourages. We need to be encouraged to defend Ukraine, not to let Russia recharge its batteries with the adrenaline of victory. This would not be in the interests of Ukraine and the world at all. ” Berziņa admitted.
Currently, Ukraine needs to strengthen its front line, ensure the security of logistics centers and continue to fight, but in order to do this, it would be very important for Ukrainians to receive motivation from the West – both in words and in deeds.
“It has never happened. We have never heard such a loud announcement, such motivating support. Well, there were praises, there were ovations, but the army cannot fight with ovations,” emphasized Berziņa.
It is impossible to exaggerate Russia’s ambitions
Even before the Munich Security Conference, news about the Kremlin’s ambitions in outer space shook the world. Intelligence services have discovered that Russia is developing a weapon that could threaten or even destroy satellites in space. Of course, US officials have already come out with statements that there is no direct threat at the moment, but these news have caused some anxiety in the world.
“I doubt whether it is possible to exaggerate Russia’s ambitions in the universe. Russia is trying to gain technological superiority, especially in the military field, in various ways, and especially in space, this is symbolically and historically important for Russia,” Berziņa admitted.
Evaluating the published information, it is clear that it instills fear, but at the same time it also reminds us that Russia’s ambitions do not stop only at occupying Ukraine, that Russia wants to be able to influence any country in the world, and with such space technologies it would be possible.
“Right now, two years after the beginning of the big attack, there are many who want to deal with other – non-Russian – issues, but if the understanding among these skeptics grows that Russia will always be a threat, for example, to the security of America, the security of France and Germany , then there will be more support for defeating Russia on the front, supporting Ukraine, increasing sanctions or otherwise stopping Russia’s threat to all developed countries,” said Bērziņa.
It is clear that Russia does not keep its promises and does not respect previously signed agreements, so it should be expected that it may also ignore the ban on launching nuclear weapons from space.
“So, I think that, yes, maybe tomorrow there won’t be such a threat yet, but it should be understood that such a threat could develop, that this moment is the right one to stop Russia’s global military ambitions. This is a very important issue and an important discussion in all in great countries, because it can encourage countries to invest more in security, in Ukraine, and in their own technologies,” Bērziņa assessed.
2024-02-24 11:16:54
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