The Ukrainians have an incentive to achieve some kind of ceasefire now, Dautet believes
New York, USA18 Oct. 2023, 02:10 128037 read 25 comments
The outbreak of war in the Middle East automatically changes the “math” for the situation in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Kiev should immediately seek peace with the Russian Federation while it has a strong position on the front. This opinion is expressed by the American political analyst Ross Dautet in an article for The New York Times.
The author of the publication notes that the position of Washington representatives, who insist on further maximum support for Ukraine, has been in question for some time. With the outbreak of war in the Middle East, the situation for Ukraine in this regard becomes critical.
“The last 10 months of the war have seen little change on the front lines, and Russia’s wartime economy appears more resilient than Washington or Kiev had hoped. The strategy of total Ukrainian victory is now a strategy of exhaustion, time and hope – but there is no guarantee that the Ukrainian country will not collapse,” Dautet wrote.
The author of the publication believes that not only the US, but also the Ukrainians themselves have an incentive to “achieve some kind of ceasefire now, while their position in the war is still stable”, Western aid is still coming, and the demographic catastrophe may still be partly corrected by the return of millions of refugees.
Dautet notes that Russia itself can see the potential benefits of continuing the war of attrition and will simply refuse any peace agreement. As Moscow, Tehran and Beijing work together to maximize pressure on America, Washington will have to choose between increasing support spending for Ukraine and ending support.
“I am not familiar with our feedback communications with Moscow. But if the Biden administration does not urgently negotiate through these channels, if it does not seek a path to a truce, it does not properly understand the challenges ahead,” the author of the publication wrote.
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2023-10-17 23:58:19
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