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The fighters from “Wagner” did not encounter any serious resistance during their march towards Moscow two months ago. Meanwhile, their boss Yevgeny Prigozhin died in a plane crash. After the tumult ended, debates began about the stability of Russia. The director of NATO’s Strategic Communications Center in Riga, Janis Sarts, believes that the march to Moscow has shaken power in the Kremlin. Is it so… Prof. Tatyana Dronzina – lecturer in the Political Science Department at the Faculty of Philosophy of the University of St. Kliment Ohridski, an expert in conflict resolution – spoke to FACTS on the subject.
– Professor Dronzina, the leader of the private army “Wagner” Yevgeny Prigozhin went on a rebellion towards Moscow, and is gone. Is this part of the “military operation”?
– I do not think. Rather, it is a deviation from it. Why did Putin want to get rid of Prigozhin, who created a media empire focused on spreading disinformation in Russia and abroad. Disinformation that no country – not even Russia – would officially spread? Who played a significant role in Syria, Mali, Central African Republic? Things went wrong after “Wagner” got involved in the hostilities in Ukraine. Participation accompanied by numerous attacks against Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, and then against Putin himself. Prigogine publicly asked himself the rhetorical question: “How to win a war when Grandfather is a fool?” Apparently referring to the Russian president. And not only this. He refused the defense ministry’s request to place all mercenary groups under state control. He dared to question the very aims of the war. The moment he stopped his march to Moscow, Prigozhin signed his death sentence – it was no coincidence that a number of journalists called him even then – the living dead. After their meeting, it became clear that Putin no longer needed him. And that the Russian president would apply to his former favorite the same policy that is often ironically called the “open windows policy” because anyone who was declared an enemy somehow fell from a height – literally – and lost his life in a mysterious way. And Prigozhin fell from a height – from an exploded or downed plane. Another manifestation of the mystique of power – or just an unsolved crime?
– What is your interpretation of what happened to Prigozhin?
– Let me make the caveat that little is known about what really happens in Putin’s inner circle. The murder of Prigozhin, who by the way was a product of the same culture of violence (the owner of the Wagner is known to have ordered the execution of deserters with blacksmith’s hammers) that has been instilled in Russia for so long, may be an indicator of quite invisible at first view processes.
First of all, it showed that Putin will not allow any compromise with his own powerful interests – if he does, he, and not someone else, will become the “living dead”, because in the Russian political market faded leaders with withered glory are not the object of great search. Putin positively understands this, because he ordered the special services to prepare for a new military rebellion – unconfirmed information, which, no wonder, is true. Second, it has become clear that Putin will not negotiate with anyone, not even his own entourage, when it comes to his power and life. Any negotiation, if it happens at all, will simply be buying time for the payoff, and it is one.
– Kadyrov and his “Ahmat” seem to behave more moderately… They already have one thing in mind…
– “Akhmat” is another myth that collapsed in Ukraine. Kadyrov was more of a herald of this war, a PR for the loyalty of the ethnic groups to the Russian president, and most of all his insurance policy as a friend of all Muslims. This seems much more than an actual military factor. His thugs, capable of slaughtering civilians in their own country and beyond, were nowhere near as effective against the still unarmored (at least at the beginning of the war), but highly morale Ukrainians. The Chechens who are now waging war for Russia in Ukraine are those who allied with Moscow to crush their own people’s rebellion during the Second Chechen War from 1999 to 2009. They operate under the leadership of Kadyrov, often referred to as west “Putin’s mad dog”, and form a so-called “Wagner-like” private army. They were co-opted by Russia and given millions of dollars and weapons to fight in Ukraine. Besides torturing the civilian population, they were also used to execute deserters from the Russian army. Possessing considerable combat experience in urban combat, they fought in Mariupol, Severodonetsk and elsewhere. Their number is believed to be around 9,000 – but the number of Chechens who passed through the meat grinder of war is estimated at 21,000. However, they were by no means elite fighting units – one Canadian researcher called them a “disposable army”. used for some time as cannon fodder – however you spin it, it is more acceptable to Russian public opinion that a Chechen should die than an ethnic Russian. In this regard, the Air Force wrote that those killed in the Muslim regions of Russia were 10 times more than the killed Muscovites. The Ukrainians quickly dealt with the myth of the invincible Chechens, a myth perpetuated in Russian literature and history by many. In this direction of hybrid warfare, Russia has completely failed. Moreover, a significant number of Chechens, perceiving the fight against Russia as a transnational cause, are today fighting in the ranks of the Ukrainian army. In short, the relationship between “Wagner” and “Ahmat” was one of cooperation and competition. But with one thing in mind that they are simply not one weight class wrestlers.
– Are we seeing a situation in Russia where power is weakening because the war is not going according to plan?
– As they say, you can do anything with bayonets except sit on them. And Putin’s power rests precisely on force and fear. And such power cannot fail to crack – most likely from within. Exactly such cracks are shown by the fact that more than two months passed from Prigozhin’s rebellion to his physical elimination. But even dead, with his particular charisma, he is a threat. If someone close to the president secretly sympathizes with him? The Russian president has no way of knowing this – as he learned after the fact with the so-called General Armageddon. In addition, Putin is unlikely to be able to regulate the fierce competition between the Wagnerites – on the one hand, and Shoigu, Gerasimov, Peskov and their supporters, much less secure the loyalty of his next favorite, whoever he may be. The saddest finding, however, is that whatever attempts are made, whether successful or not, will be palace coups unsupported by the Russians. Whether it is because they are anesthetized by the mysticism of power and Russian Orthodoxy, whether it is because they are the target of their own president’s successful intensive hybrid war against them, or whether they are simply afraid – that is a topic for another conversation. I just want to say that anyone counting on an anti-war movement in Russia, much less resistance to the regime, will be sorely disappointed.
– How can we describe the situation in Russia, where Putin is expected to sign a new decree for full mobilization?
– A draft decree by President Vladimir Putin announcing a new wave of large-scale mobilization could be signed in the coming weeks. The need for it is dictated by the depletion of human resources, including those mobilized from prisons. Putin also aims to bring back the men who emigrated from Russia. I highly doubt that will happen. For the Bulgarian reading public, this decree should show one thing: what is happening in Ukraine is not a special operation, but a full-scale and unprovoked war.
– Bulgarian Head of State Rumen Radev reacts to the events in Ukraine. We saw this during his meeting with Zelensky, and we also see his different position on the issue compared to that of the ruling party. Why is there such a huge difference…
– Because Rumen Radev pursues Russian interests in Bulgaria, and the rulers have a Euro-Atlantic orientation. Consciously or not, he is the greatest achievement of the Russian hybrid war against our country. I admit that he works sincerely for the future of Bulgaria as he understands it – I just don’t want to think otherwise. Be that as it may, this in no way strengthens Bulgaria’s status as a reliable member of the EU and NATO. Like Orban, the Bulgarian president appeals to that part of the population that believes we can have a policy of neutrality. This, of course, is a gigantic illusion, not to say delusion, because neutrality in international relations is not a matter of declaration, but of recognition. Out of respect for the institution, I do not want to repeat all the cheap and shallow narratives, although it is my tongue to tell lies, such as that Bulgarian soldiers would be mobilized to fight in Ukraine, that we would become a target of Russia and I don’t know what else. Bulgaria, of course, must have a policy of protecting its national interests, but this policy can and should be conducted within the framework of the EU and NATO. Because we are NATO and the EU. How long can this story with the contradiction between the institutions continue? Probably until the voters send them the bill. And the bills, as you know, have to be paid.
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Rating 2.9 out of 20 votes.
2023-09-04 06:14:00
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