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While the conflict between the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and rebels in the Tigray region continues, tensions continue to grow between Washington and its Ethiopian ally, against which a sanctions regime is under consideration.
The situation continues to deteriorate inexorably in Ethiopia, the scene of an endless war between pro-government forces and Tigrayan rebels. While the latter have gained the advantage in recent weeks, the government has launched a campaign against international organizations present in the country, now suspected of collaborating with the enemy within.
The United Nations announced, Wednesday, November 10, that 72 drivers from the World Food Program (WFP) were detained in a city in the north of the country on the only road to Tigray. The day before, 16 Ethiopian UN employees were arrested in the capital Addis Ababa. Finally, on September 30, the government ordered the expulsion of seven heads of United Nations agencies accused of “interference”.
This increased repression comes at a time when the United States, which had been in retreat for a long time, began a diplomatic offensive for a few months to end the conflict and prepared sanctions. Measures seen by Ethiopia as a betrayal on the part of one of its closest allies.
American startle
On November 2, Joe Biden announced Ethiopia’s exclusion from its Africa Pact Facilitating Access to the U.S. Market (AGOA) starting on 1is January. A measure unveiled two weeks after the establishment by the United States of a sanctions regime to suspend the assets and financial transactions of the parties to the conflict, whose application date has not been communicated. For the US president, developments in the north of the country not only threaten “the stability of Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa region” but now constitute an “unusual and extraordinary threat to security. national and foreign policy of the United States “.
Already in May, the tension had risen a notch with the establishment by Washington of visa restrictions against Ethiopian and Eritrean officials accused of having “taken no significant measures to end hostilities”. The Ethiopian government then issued a warning, believing itself “compelled to reassess its relations with the United States, which could have implications going beyond our bilateral relations”.
>> To read also: “How Ethiopia had to resolve to admit the involvement of Eritrea in Tigray”
Ethiopia, a strategic ally
If the Biden administration now wants to increase the pressure on the Ethiopian leaders and their supporters, it took seven months for it to put in place the first concrete measures. Because for Washington, the military intervention in Tigray has long caused embarrassment. “The United States sees an interest in maintaining good relations with Ethiopia. They thus benefit from a trusted regional strategic partner in an area dominated by Saudi Arabia and the Emirates of which they are wary”, analyzes Gérard Prunier , historian, specialist of the Horn of Africa.
Considered by Washington as an important ally in the international fight against terrorism, especially because of its proximity to Somalia, Ethiopia has actively participated in UN missions by providing large contingents of soldiers. The United States, for its part, is the largest donor of humanitarian aid in the country, through UN agencies, to an estimated amount of one billion dollars per year.
Abiy Ahmed disappointment
In addition to reluctance due to strategic interests, the lack of initiative on the issue of Tigray reflects the astonishment of the international community, which had relied heavily on Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Arrived on April 2, 2018 at the head of a country in the grip of a political crisis and undermined by ethnic conflicts, the new leader had undertaken reforms to get closer to the enemy neighbor Eritrea. Once signed, the peace agreement won him the Nobel Prize on October 11, 2019.
The youngest head of government on the African continent then becomes a symbol courted by the West. In March 2019, Emmanuel Macron praised the modern reforms and the courage of the leader with whom he signed a defense agreement, suspended last August. Donald Trump, a bit jealous of the Ethiopian leader, will even try to grab responsibility for the peace agreement, saying that it is he who should have obtained the Nobel, for his involvement in the negotiations.
“The United States supported the arrival of the Prime Minister to power. It is certain that the evolution of the situation puts them at odds but they are not the only ones. Many believed in him”, emphasizes Gérard Prunier. “No one could have imagined that this political novice who promised openness and modernity would suddenly embark on a die-hard total integration war absolutely incompatible with the reality of Ethiopian diversity.”
Prepare the sequel
On the occasion of the first anniversary of the conflict in Tigray, US Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman, Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa, published a long column explaining that it was no longer possible to continue “business as usual. “with the Ethiopian government. “The extraordinary partnership from which we have benefited is not viable if the military conflict continues to spread”, he lamented, also condemning the recurrent blockages of humanitarian aid to Tigray and expressing his indignation. as to the expulsion of the seven UN humanitarian representatives. A measure of unprecedented magnitude, even under the warring Syria of President Bashar al-Assad, according to the diplomat.
“The United States has shown a lot of patience. It must be said that their expectations vis-à-vis Ethiopia are modest because it is far from being a priority for them like China or Iran “, explains Gérard Prunier. “But they no longer trust Abiy Ahmed and hope to find even a functional ally. By imposing sanctions against the government at a time when it seems on the way to losing the battle, they envisage the future. . “
On the side of the power in place, the American pressure has so far only inflamed a little more patriotic outbursts. “If aid and loans deprive us of our freedom, if they cause us to sacrifice our freedom, we are not sacrificing our freedom,” the mayor of the capital, Adanech Abebe, said on Sunday. Words applauded with fervor by tens of thousands of sympathizers gathered at the call of the government.
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