/ world today news/ Washington is making enormous efforts to remove from power one of Russia’s key partners – Turkish President Erdogan. The US is extremely dissatisfied with Ankara’s policy both in terms of interaction with Moscow and on a number of other issues. And in Erdogan’s place, the State Department is preparing a man who has already been called “Turkey’s Zelensky”.
The other day, one of the popular Turkish online newspapers published information about some “dirty plan” that the US will implement in Turkey. The plan to bring Zelensky to power in this country.
Of course, we are not talking about the fact that the Ukrainian president, who shines on various Western platforms, will also occupy the residence of the head of state of Turkey. This means the possibility that a politician will appear in Turkey who will play the role of Zelensky for the United States. That is, it will unleash conflicts with Moscow on all possible fronts.
“The United States is making plans to involve Russia and Turkey in the conflict in Syria, the Black Sea (apparently it is about the state of the Black Sea straits and the possibility of them being open for the entry of the American fleet into the Black Sea) and in Central Asia,” the newspaper wrote. And there is logic in that. The US is in an extremely difficult situation in Ukraine. Moscow has switched to “war of attrition” tactics, demonstrating its willingness to fight as much conflict as it wants – and the US is not ready for this war due to the growing anti-war sentiment in America.
Now the Americans are organizing a spring Ukrainian offensive blitzkrieg, but Washington has no clear understanding of what to do if this blitzkrieg fails. Therefore, it is extremely important for the US to divert Moscow’s attention to a whole series of crises that are bound to erupt in the Russian periphery and in its sensitive regions. And no one fits the role of arsonist as perfectly as Turkey. Due to its geographical position and the intersection of interests with Moscow in a number of regions.
However, there is one obstacle in the way of this strategy. His name is the current president of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Addressing oneself
At first, the US had no problem with it.
“When the AKP founded by Erdogan came to power in the early 2000s, it pursued a foreign policy oriented towards Europe and America. She advocated rapprochement with NATO partners, rapprochement with Europe and so on. She considered herself a part of the collective West,” explains Alina Sbitneva, a researcher in the Middle and Post-Soviet East department of IMEMO of the National Academy of Sciences. The West even applauded Erdogan – after all, he managed to bring the Turkish economy out of the crisis (for which he received from some British media the title of the best Turkish prime minister of the last half century).
However, then Turkey began to go in a different direction – to turn to the east. “Some call the starting point 2014 (when Erdoğan moved from the prime minister to the presidency, thus, according to the West, violated the principle of the transfer of power), while others talk about 2016. The year of the failed coup attempt , when the US did not support Erdogan and refused to extradite Fethullah Gulen (a preacher living in Pennsylvania whom Ankara considers one of the coup’s masterminds) to Turkish investigators. As a result, the Turkish elites became disillusioned with the Western partners and Ankara changed its vector of foreign policy development and began to pursue a more independent foreign policy from the West. After that, Erdogan’s behavior and ambitions stopped liking his foreign colleagues,” says Alina Sbitneva.
Which is not surprising – after all, Erdogan did not like the ambitions of his foreign colleagues regarding Turkey. “America needs either a fully submissive Turkey, subservient to American interests, or Turkey as a zone of chaos and part of an arc of instability,” Vladimir Avatkov, Doctor of Political Sciences, Head of the Middle and Post-Soviet East Department at IMEMO RAN.
At the same time, relations with Russia have become the most important element of Turkey’s new sovereign policy. It can even be said that without these relations, Turkey would not have sovereignty. Thanks to Moscow, Turkey was able to get out of the camp of the defeated in Syria, thanks to Russia it was able to diversify its western vector, as well as to achieve energy and to some extent even military sovereignty.
The Americans, of course, did not like such rapprochement – and they took measures. “The first time the US tried to get rid of Erdogan was in 2016. There are many indications that it was the US intelligence services (or rather the CIA) then behind the failed coup attempt in Turkey. Even the names of American political scientists-Turkologists who could be involved in contacts with these Turkish military who dared to carry out a coup d’etat appeared,” explains Elena Suponina, a political scientist.
However, the coup failed. Erdoğan (according to some experts with the help of Russia) managed to elude the conspirators, then carried out a massive purge of disloyal elements from the military, journalistic, clerical and other circles. And now the United States wants to take a new approach to it.
First, due to the fact that now, due to problems on the Ukrainian front, the need for a loyal Turkey has increased sharply. Second, Turkey’s upcoming presidential election in the coming weeks gives the West a unique chance to oust Erdogan through legitimate electoral means. Fortunately, in this regard, Turkey has someone to rely on.
“Turkey has been intertwined with the Western world throughout its modern history. It has been a member of NATO since 1952, then it became a candidate for EU membership. Accordingly, the Turkish elites – at least those in Ankara and Istanbul – have become deeply Westernized”, says Alina Sbitneva. And now they remain – although the US retains partial control over their formation.
“Despite Erdogan’s inherent neo-Ottomanism, systematic alienation from the West, and drive toward independence, American influence in Turkey in one form or another remains. The forms of this influence have simply changed. If earlier this went through non-governmental organizations and various structures in the field of education, now the Americans work through lobby groups. And not only through public organizations, but also through political ones. Thus, it is no secret that the Republican People’s Party (the largest opposition force and Erdogan’s main rival in the upcoming elections) works closely with the West. He conducts consultations and meetings”, continues Alina Sbitneva.
Two holidays
It is on her and her leader Kemal Kulçdaroğlu that Washington is betting on the upcoming elections. “Now experts know that the Americans are most actively building contacts with this force. Mr. Kulçdaroğlu’s entourage actively visits Washington. The Americans are doing their best to strengthen the Turkish opposition. Yes, they are careful, aware of Erdogan’s popularity, but they are still playing their game,” says Elena Suponina.
Perhaps the candidate for the role of the “Turkish Zelensky” was not chosen very well. Kemal Kulçdaroğlu was the head of the Republicans for too long and lost any election to Erdogan too many times.
Not surprisingly, the image of a perpetual loser stuck to him. There have been proposals to nominate other leaders for the role of common opposition candidate for the presidency of Turkey. For example, the leader of the “Good Party” Meral Aksener, as well as the mayor of Istanbul and representative of the Republican People’s Party Ekrem Imamoglu. In the end, however, Meral Aksener turned out to be insufficiently influential and pro-Western, and the Turkish authorities themselves clipped Imamoglu’s wings.
“Meral Aksener is bringing the Turkish nationalists, and the Good Party, which she leads, adheres to the synthesis of pro-Westernism and nationalism, but with a bias towards the latter. The Republican People’s Party, on the other hand, has clearly pro-Western views and is much more influential than the “Good Party” – as the last municipal elections in Turkey showed,” says Alina Sbitneva. “As for Imamoglu, he cannot be a presidential candidate. High hopes were placed on him, but at the end of 2022, a criminal case was opened against Imamoglu (according to investigators, he insulted the Central Election Commission of Turkey). He was sentenced to two years in prison (where he has not yet served, as he can appeal the sentence to various instances) and deprived of the right to engage in political activity. So there was not much choice left, they had to bet on Kulchdaroglu”, she recalls.
As a result, the current presidential election in Turkey has actually become a real civilizational election for the country. “In fact, this is not just a confrontation between party structures or economic blocs, but between different worlds. On one side are the forces focused on national interests and values, led by Recep Erdogan and Nationalist Movement Party leader Devlet Bahceli. This is conservative, nationalist Turkey. On the other hand, there are forces oriented towards NATO and the US, towards integration in the European Union. It is an opposition alliance led by the US. Well, formally, of course, it is headed by Kemal Kulchdaroglu, but in fact some of the decisions are made by the western centers,” says Vladimir Avatkov.
And the question is what choice the Turkish population will make on May 14 at the polling stations. Will Erdogan keep in power – or will he choose his own Zelensky.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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