Containing the catastrophe in the Donbass: such is still the fragile hope of the United States. Washington pretended not to be surprised by the decision of Russian President Vladimir Putin to recognize the two “self-proclaimed republics” of Luhansk and Donetsk on Monday, February 21. “We had anticipated such a movement”, said the White House statement, released shortly after. This announced the signing by US President Joe Biden of an executive order to ban any investment, trade or financing by US citizens in the two separatist regions. Its legal drafting had been clearly prepared upstream, but the scope seems limited, pending new measures planned for Wednesday. In reality, the Kremlin’s decision compromises the preventive and dissuasive strategy developed by Washington for three months.
Beyond the unsurprising condemnation of the Russian initiative, the United States insists that it is not enough to trigger the sanctions package negotiated for three months with the allies. “Let it be clear: these measures are separate and would be in addition to the swift and severe economic measures we have prepared in coordination with our allies and partners should Russia further invade Ukraine”said White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki. Already, elected Republicans in Congress are calling for more firmness. What is a Russian invasion? This seems to be the talk of the moment, as the Kremlin moves its troops.
In the American color chart, a distinction emerges regarding the mere presence of Russian tanks in the Donbass. “It would not in itself be a new step”, said a senior official of the administration, during a press briefing. He insisted on the continuous but unassumed presence of Russia in the two separatist regions since 2014. Denouncing the “Potemkin policy” of the Kremlin and the dismal scenography offered on Monday, this official considered that Vladimir Putin’s speech was aimed at “justify war” among its population. But for now, the White House “observe and evaluate” Russian actions, to adjust its response. The rest will depend in particular on what the supposed “peacekeeping forces” will undertake, announced by Moscow in the Donbass. Will they go beyond the line of contact?
Feeling of impunity and power
Already, the Russian fait accompli sends the American administration back to the limits of its strategy. Arriving at the White House, Joe Biden had a clear objective: to neutralize Russia, to focus his attention on the essential, China. By immediately renewing the New Start treaty on strategic arms for five years, Washington once again became a predictable interlocutor. Demanding, but acting on its own vulnerabilities, symbolized by the assault on the Capitol given by supporters of Donald Trump. It seemed possible to identify converging interests, particularly on arms control.
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