(CNN Business) – The United States is already in recession and will continue to do so during the first half of the year, according to a survey of 45 economists.
Economists predict a short, sharp recession for the first half of 2020, as the coronavirus pandemic “severely restricts economic activity,” according to the survey by the National Association for Business Economics.
Economic growth probably fell at a rate of 2.4% in the first quarter, the association anticipates, and will decline a staggering 26.5% in the second quarter.
The U.S. job market will also have a big impact as the coronavirus outbreak keeps businesses closed. The association says the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 12% in the middle of the year, while the United States may lose 4.58 million jobs in the second quarter.
That job loss will drag consumption, a major driver of the United States economy. Consumer spending represents approximately 70% of economic growth.
Despite the abrupt recession, economists are optimistic that the economy will recover in the second half of 2020, growing at a rate of almost 6% by the end of the year.
“The average forecast suggests that conditions will improve by the end of the year with the support of an aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus,” said the president of the National Association for Business Economics, Constance Hunter.
The Federal Reserve announced an additional $ 2.3 trillion in loans for small businesses and consumers Thursday. This measure adds to many other central bank lending programs and lowers interest rates to zero in an effort to shore up the United States economy.
– .
