the United States clashes with the demands of Saudi Arabia

Find oil. It has become the obsession of the United States since President Joe Biden’s decision on Tuesday to stop importing Russian oil, which sent the price of a barrel on the markets soaring to 133 dollars in session Tuesday. . As the midterm elections loom, the American president fears that his fragile Democratic majority in the House will be overthrown by the vote of American motorists who are grumbling about the high cost of gasoline. In California, the gallon (3.78 liters) is displayed up to 5 dollars, a price rarely seen in the most oil-consuming country in the world.

The Biden administration has already resumed contact with Venezuela, on which it has imposed an embargo on their oil exports since 2019. Iran is also a promising lead provided that an agreement is reached on the nuclear file, but the discussions are s are dragging on because of Russia’s demands.

A capacity increase of 2.1 mbd for the Saudis

Apart from the United States, the countries able to increase their production are rare, and are found within OPEC+, which brings together the members of OPEC plus 10 non-member exporting countries including Russia, the Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia or even Mexico. It is above all the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which abstained during the vote at the UN on the resolution condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Saudi Arabia which have capabilities.

According to the latest monthly report (February) from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Saudi Arabia can immediately add 1.2 million barrels per day (mbd), a capacity that can rise to 2.1 mbd within 90 days. For the Emirates, the short-term potential is 600,000 barrels per day, and 1.2 mbd within 90 days. In total, OPEC+ could theoretically pump 2.2 mbd in the short term and 5.1 mbd within 90 days, adding the marginal increases from Iraq, Kuwait and… Russia.

However, according to information revealed by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), both the leader of the UAE, Mohammed bin Zayed, and that of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, refuse to speak with the host of the White House. It is common knowledge that unlike the Trump administration, the Biden administration does not have a good relationship with Riyadh. However, according to the American financial daily, meetings with the Saudis began last month. Brett McGurk, the National Security Council’s Middle East coordinator, and Amos Hochstein, energy officer at the State Department, both traveled to Riyadh to mend ties. Brett McGurk also met Sheikh Mohammed in Abu Dhabi.

Three conditions

It shows that the Saudis have set their conditions for increasing their oil supply: technological support and the sharing of information to support their military intervention in the civil war in Yemen, where they are facing Houthi rebels supported by Iran, a technological assistance to develop their own nuclear program and, last but not least, immunity for Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman to travel to the United States. On American soil, several complaints were filed against him after the assassination in Turkey in 2018 of the Saudi journalist who took refuge in the United States Jamal Khashoggi. At the time, the crown prince had been the subject of international disapproval except by Vladimir Putin.

The United Arab Emirates are in the same spirit. Also present militarily on the ground in Yemen, they underlined the lack of American commitment when their country was recently the target of the missiles sent according to them by the Houthi rebels.

In addition, the two Gulf powers are worried about a return to the international scene of their arch-enemy, Iran, in the event of a nuclear agreement. And they intend to defend their interests in the new international balance of power that is taking shape with the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Compliance with the agreement within OPEC+

So far, this has not triggered an increase in oil production. The Saudis and the Emiratis recall that they are also bound by the agreement which governs the relations of the member countries within OPEC+, which sets production quotas for each member. However, this policy has worked rather well so far, allowing the barrel to go from around 20 dollars in March 2020 to more than 120 dollars today.

Obviously, this work – and this common interest – brought Saudi Arabia closer to Moscow, with whom the link is maintained, and which today seems sufficiently solid to make the White House wait.