The United States and its allies promise unity against Russia; do what is not clear

President Joe Biden has assembled European allies to promise that they will act harshly against Russia if it sends troops to Ukraine. But the Allies do not always seem to be united in what the United States and Europe want to do.

The military, such as the United States, Turkey and the United Kingdom, have emerged with the supply of or consent to anti-tank missiles, drones, warships and other weapons, as well as means to help Ukraine build its defense. But Germany’s main ally seems to be opposed to any such direct military aid – so much so that the British military flight to Ukraine circled German airspace on Monday rather than the most direct route.

While Biden has warned Russian President Vladimir Putin of the “unprecedented” economic consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, some major European allies have shown less enthusiasm for massive economic sanctions that could harm some European economies or threaten Russia’s nature. Europeans need gas to keep warm this winter.

During weeks of intense diplomacy, Russian leaders rejected Allied pledges to oppose Russia. Indeed, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov protested, the US has decision-makers and Europeans are queuing up.

And if talk of unity and promises of consequences make Putin think, he doesn’t show it.

Russia has sent some 100,000 troops to Ukraine’s border, and U.S. officials said Tuesday they believe Russia is capable of carrying out the attack. Foreign Minister Anthony Blinken went on a planned trip to Ukraine and Germany before the talks with Lavrov in Geneva on Friday.

EU leaders believe Russia is trying to sow discord between the 27 EU countries, the US and NATO. Last week, they congratulated themselves on avoiding this trap.

“The United States has not played its part,” said Joseph Borrell, the European Union’s foreign policy chief. Russia wanted to divide us. They failed. ”

At least in words, equating Europeans with American leadership was a foreign policy success for the Baiden administration after the global allies withdrew from Afghanistan with devastating results.

Democrat Sen. Chris Murphy, who went to Kiev last weekend with Republican and Democratic senators to meet with Ukrainian leaders, said the United States was working to reaffirm Europe’s commitment to Russia if it wanted to continue the invasion.

“The United States now appears to be slightly more interested in imposing severe multilateral sanctions than Europe,” Murphy told reporters on Monday. This is ‘a little surprising to me, given that the territorial integrity of Europe, not the United States, is at stake’.

In October and November, France, Germany and some other European Union countries questioned US warnings that an increase in Russian military forces near Ukraine could signal an imminent invasion. France and Germany initially opposed the launch of NATO’s Crisis Response Planning System. They made concessions, and it was activated on November 30.

It now appears that the US allies are determined to prove that they are closely linked to Biden. There are almost no objections to public austerity promises.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is likely to immediately strengthen the defense of NATO members such as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland near Russia’s borders. NATO already has about 5,000 troops and equipment in these countries. The presence of NATO members on Russia’s borders is already one of Putin’s main complaints against the West.

The countries of south-eastern Europe – notably Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey – are also being studied for their potential readiness to host a NATO battle group and equipment of around 1,000 in the Black Sea region.

“At the time, several countries were interested in joining the force,” said Admiral Rob Pauer, chairman of NATO’s Military Committee, last week.

As a non-NATO member, Ukraine cannot expect any military assistance from the Alliance as an organization if Russia invades it.

The rhetoric between the EU and some European governments coincides with that of the White House and the Americans: Russia will incur huge economic and political costs if Putin sends forces across the border to Ukraine.

None of the leaders has publicly discussed the exact nature of the possible penalties, saying it would be wrong to show a hand. The European Union has proven experience in imposing sanctions on Russia in cooperation with the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and other allies.

The most frequently discussed measures include a ban on Russia’s use of the SWIFT banking system, which manages cash flows around the world, and sanctions on Putin’s family, his military and political circles, and Russian banks.

The British government is firmly behind the US stance on Ukraine. Johnson’s office said Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last week in support of “broad economic sanctions” in the wake of the Russian invasion.

However, questions arise as to how much economic pain Britain is prepared to inflict on the London financial district and the property market, which are Russia’s money centers. British banks and financial institutions have long been accused of fraud.

After France became one of the initial skeptics of US warnings about increasing Russian troops, Clement Bonn, the government’s minister for European affairs, recently said France was ready to support sanctions against Russia if necessary. He did not go into details.

Germany, Europe’s largest economy, has one of the biggest economic levers over Russia – the newly built Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which would deliver Russian natural gas directly to Germany and beyond.

German Foreign Minister Annalina Barboka said on Monday that her country would “do everything in its power to ensure the security of Ukraine”.

“Any further escalation will come at a heavy cost to the Russian regime – economic, political and strategic,” she said. “And we take it very seriously.”

However, the German government has sent contradictory signals and has not made a final public statement on whether it will maintain the pipeline connection if Russia sends troops to Ukraine. This led Blinken to reassure Germany that “it would be difficult to see” the gas flow if Russia invaded.

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Cook reported from Brussels. The report was attended by Frank Jordan in Berlin, Jersey Molson in Brussels, Jill Louise in London, Vladimir Isachnikov in Moscow and Silvia Courbe in Paris.

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