The arrival of what has been conventionally considered the third wave has caused the possibility of not only tightening restrictions, but also carrying out new house confinements. Castilla y León, for example, requested it this week; a possibility ruled out by the Government, which considers that the current measures are proportionate.
During the last months, especially between mid-October and November, more and more countries, especially Europeans, have embraced a tightening similar to that of March to combat the second and third waves. Or rather, similar to the measures that had been put in place during the first phase of the pandemic. In most cases, this new confinement was equivalent to close non-essential businesses, ban gatherings and ask the population to stay home.
In countries such as the United Kingdom or Ireland, a second confinement has been accompanied by a sharp and rapid regrowth
The results, however, have been very different in each country, although there are clear trends. There is no doubt that lockdowns work (almost) always, but only when reducing the impact in the short term. The main question is what happens once everything is reopened. The case of the United Kingdom, which has led this week to Boris Johnson decreeing a strict closure, as well as that of other countries that at the time popularized the measure, such as Israel, show that a second harsh confinement can be accompanied by a spectacular outbreak or that in the medium term they have had to take restrictive measures again.
In some of these countries, what the epidemiologist Devi Sridhar described as “a cycle of confinements “, in which the closings and openings follow each other with increasing speed; the consequence that these are not long enough to reduce infections to almost zero. The process followed in many countries is one of increasingly shorter confinements and, therefore, with less impact, which causes the return to normality to be shorter and shorter, but also to greater uncertainty and economic urgencies. .
Israel
By mid-October, Israel was one of the countries to watch for thanks to its successful implementation of a second strict lockdown, the main inspiration for many European states. The prime minister of the country, Benjamin Netanyahu, I consider “a great success “the measure, and the speed with which the infections began to be reduced surprised the country’s own health authorities.
Second lockdown?
In Israel, the first to impose a 2nd lockdown:
1. Surprisingly, the 2nd lockdown worked faster and more effectively than the 1st, despite being less tight
2. The effect differed across subpopulations, suggesting that differential policies may be effective pic.twitter.com/heem5ov8bC
– Eran Segal (@segal_eran) October 20, 2020
“When the second lockdown was imposed, many showed their skepticism, partly because it was less strict and because people observed the rules less than in the first,” analyzed the Weissmann Institute scientist. Eran Segal. In the second Israeli lockdown, non-essential establishments were closed and citizens could only travel a kilometer away. “But it worked: The reality is that the cases were reduced faster than in the first confinement “, in just 10 days. The duration of this confinement inspired the idea of” short and strict “confinement that many have advocated since then.
And yet, the number of cases within seven days has risen almost vertically since December 14, when it topped 200 for the first time since mid-October and today stands at its all-time high. This has led Israel, one of the most advanced countries in its vaccination campaign, to a third confinement. This Tuesday, Netanyahu assured that they are “in a state of emergency” and blamed the British variant for the explanation for this setback.
Australia
One of the most stable countries over the months, perhaps because the weather situation of the southern country is very different from that of the northern hemisphere. The second Australian wave, much more deadly and widespread than the first, started in Melbourne, Victoria and led to a long confinement of four months, which ended on October 26 when 0 new cases were reached.
Since then, Australia has focused on containing the outbreaks with punctual closings (such as that of November in the southern states) and promote new measures such as the use of masks in closed spaces. On December 20, for example, they reduced family reunions for 10 people and a five-day lockdown was established in Sydney’s Northern Beaches area.
UK
On October 31, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced four weeks of lockdown, in which pubs, restaurants and other non-essential establishments were closed and gatherings in closed places were prohibited. The measure began to show its effects mid november, when the seven-day number of cases dropped for the first time since early October.
The return to relative normality started in early December, and in a matter of days cases soared to the point that this past Tuesday Johnson announced the return to the toughest restrictions of the fall. Although an attempt has been made to explain this variation due to the British variant, many experts agree that this factor cannot explain the rapid change in trend and that there may be others in operation such as the reopening very close to Christmas, which further contributes to the perfect storm effect that this has had in other countries.
Ireland
A country with a very similar evolution to that of its English neighbors. In mid-October, the government decided to implement a stricter lockdown that lasted from October 21 to December 1. Aabout six weeks that ended up coinciding with the beginning of the festive period. The schools remained open, although family gatherings were prohibited and non-essential commerce was closed, with the possibility for restaurants to offer take away food.
The evolution has been very similar to that of the United Kingdom, even more pronounced. Since beginning of the year, Ireland has entered a third strict lockdown that will last until the end of January, with the same restrictions as in the fall. As indicated Micheál Martin, Irish Taoiseach (Head of Government), “the virus is spreading at a speed has exceeded our worst predictions “.
France
On October 29, and following the English wake, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, it decreed a second national confinement in which the population could only leave their homes to work or for medical reasons. The schools would remain open, but the restoration closed. The first deadline for the closure was to end at the end of November, and since then there has been a progressive de-escalation which ended in mid-December; yes, with the adoption of new measures such as a curfew from eight at night.
The French evolution has been much kinder than that of the British Isles, and appears to have stabilized at around 200 new cases a day since the end of November. Recently, the minister of health Olivier Véran confirmed that his intention was avoid re-confinement at all costs with business closing, but he did not rule out the possibility “because I cannot predict the future.” France will maintain the curfew at least until the end of January and has delayed the reopening of restaurants, cinemas and theaters.
Germany
Along the same lines as France and the United Kingdom, Germany imposed a confinement at the end of October that implied the complete closure of the hotel and cultural spaces, as well as the prohibition of meetings of more than 10 people, which began to be nuanced at the end of November. The evolution of Germany is peculiar, since they never managed to significantly reduce the rate of infections (as it did in the United Kingdom) and the return to the supposed normality caused a rebound in cases that superimposed on the non-disappeared second wave.
The result, a new series of restrictions that were launched in mid-December and that were supposed to last, in principle, until January 10. These contemplated the closing of shops and schools. However, this week the Government has decided to extend the closure for another three weeks until the end of January, school closings included. “We are in a new situation and we must be very careful,” he said. Angela Merkel.
Austria
Another of those countries that, like the United Kingdom or Ireland, have quickly fallen into a third lockdown after the relaxation of the second. At the beginning of December, the Central European country eased some of the measures that had been in force during the previous three weeks, like the closing of schools and shops. On December 8, they reopened.
In a matter of days, the situation got out of control again and on December 22, Austria beat his record of infections. Just a few days before, a new closure had been proposed from the 26th, in the middle of Christmas, until January 18. Austria is the country in which the fastest going from a second to a third closing, with just 11 days of break.
Greece
The increase in cases forced measures to be taken on the 7th with a view to a de-escalation that was to begin at the end of this month. However, the term has been lengthening with relative relaxations, so that the Greeks have spent a few Christmases with most of the trade closed. This January 2 decree a new hardening of measurements until day 11.
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