The UN General Assembly will meet on Monday in a special session to discuss Russia’s recent attempt to annex four regions of Ukraine. The session could reveal whether Russia’s international isolation is growing as the war progresses.
“The UN Charter is clear: any annexation of the territory of one state by another state as a result of the threat or use of force is a violation of the principles of the UN Charter and international law,” he said. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on September 29, a day before a theatrical ceremony in the Kremlin to incorporate the territories into Russia.
Guterres said any attempt to annex Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia would have “no legal force” and would be a “dangerous escalation”.
The next day, Russia used its UN Security Council veto to block a resolution condemning its actions.
This has stimulated the move to the General Assembly, where no state has the right of veto.
Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia released a letter to member states on October 4, calling the move to the General Assembly “clearly politicized and provocative”.
Take a stand
In addition to the debate, countries will be asked to express their position on the issue by voting on a resolution drawn up by Europe condemning Russia’s decision to annex Ukrainian territory.
“It is clinically focused on the legality or illegality of what Russia is doing,” EU Ambassador Olof Skoog told reporters of the draft text.
The final draft, seen from VOA Friday, reiterates the Secretary General’s statement and reaffirms the states’ commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders. He also clearly condemns the “so-called illegal referendums” and the “attempted illegal annexation” of Russia and says they are not valid under international law.
“We will continue to argue that there are fundamental principles at stake here, and it is something that every country has an interest in,” a senior US administration official told reporters Thursday of the negotiations.
The final text also includes a language supporting conflict mitigation and adds a new language that promotes resolution through “political dialogue, negotiation, mediation and other peaceful means”, with respect to Ukraine’s borders. internationally recognized and in accordance with the principles of the UN Charter.
Richard Gowan, UN director of the International Crisis Group, said including this language is a smart move.
“I think the EU and the Ukrainians have made smart moves in the negotiations on this text, for example by taking ideas from non-Western diplomats to include language, absent in early drafts, about the need for a negotiated solution to the war.” he said. she told VOA. “I’m not sure if Ukraine really believes that a real dialogue is possible, but they have to show that they don’t completely reject diplomacy.”
Diplomats expect the debate to go beyond Monday and a vote is not scheduled until Wednesday.
To pass the resolution, sponsors will need a two-thirds majority of the countries present and “yes” votes. Abstentions do not count towards the two-thirds requirement.
Typically, the General Assembly holds a public vote and records it so that the world can see where each nation is. But Russia has taken the unusual step of calling for a secret ballot, a format usually reserved for assembly actions such as United Nations body elections.
In his letter, Nebenzia urged states to vote against the proposed resolution. You said that since there is “great pressure” on countries to choose which side to take, Russia is proposing a secret ballot to give them “flexibility and breathing space”.
“It does not suggest a high degree of confidence in the outcome if Russia tries to hide the vote count or the results,” the US official said.
A procedural vote could be called in the assembly to decide whether to use a registered ballot or a secret ballot.
Support measure
On March 2, the General Assembly voted 141-5 to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24. Only four countries – Belarus, Eritrea, North Korea and Syria – voted against the resolution alongside Russia. Thirty-five countries abstained.
The next vote could indicate whether there is “fatigue” in Ukraine among UN members and whether the impact of the war, particularly on fuel, food and fertilizer prices, has changed the position of some countries.
“In March, countries like Cuba and Iran also abstained,” noted a senior Western diplomat. “It is important to show that support for Russia has not increased and, at the same time, to limit the number of abstentions as much as possible”.
Many of the 35 abstentions in March came from African nations.
“All eyes will be on the African group, which is generally seen as the most ambivalent bloc of UN members on war,” Gowan said. “I suspect that most African members will abstain, but the United States will encourage their partners to support the resolution, arguing that it is a vote against colonialism.”
Gowan said the more Ukraine and its allies can frame the vote as a “simple test of loyalty to the UN Charter, the stronger their argument will be.”
The Western diplomat put it more colorfully:
“You can’t be half pregnant. Either you’re pregnant or you’re not. So, the same thing, it’s either legal or it’s not illegal, exactly the same.”
Diplomats and analysts will also look to see how Russia’s traditional allies, such as China and India, vote. On March 2, both abstained from the vote of the assembly. They also refused their support for Russia in the Security Council.
Brazil, which voted to condemn Moscow in March, abstained in the Security Council vote on September 30, condemning the so-called referendums and attempted annexation.
Lobbying continues on both the Western and Russian sides. Moscow wants to dispel the Western narrative that it is diplomatically isolated, while Western nations are eager to show that the moral weight of the international community is on the side of Ukraine and international law.
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