What is the Ukrainian resolution about?
The UN resolution condemns the “so-called illegal referendums” in the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya, calls on Russia to immediately and unconditionally cease its “illegal annexation attempts” of those regions and calls on the General Assembly of United Nations to suspend those annexations for not recognizing. The resolution (directed mainly by the European Union) also emphasizes the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and calls for the immediate, complete and unconditional withdrawal of the Russian army.
“Now is the time to openly support Ukraine,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement Monday. “This is not the time for abstentions, reassuring words or ambiguities under the pretext of neutrality. The fundamental values of the United Nations Charter are at stake. ‘ Incidentally, a UN resolution has primarily the value of a moral appeal.
What does Russia think?
Russia rejects the resolution as a one-sided, cynical and polarizing attempt to push, as Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Vasili Nebenzya said, an “anti-Russian narrative”. The referendums are legitimate, Moscow says, and honor the goals of the Russian military operation: to protect the Russian-speaking population of the four Ukrainian regions from the hostile pro-Western Kiev regime.
Diplomatically isolated Russia urged on Monday by secret ballot not to embarrass sympathetic countries, an unusual proposal that ended the meeting (107 countries voted against, 13 in favor, 39 abstained, including Russia and China who did not vote). Delicate defeat for Putin on the day of the missile attacks against Ukraine.
What will happen now?
Dozens of the 193 UN member states have already spoken out in favor of the resolution on Monday. The debate continues on Wednesday. Then Russia and pro-Russian countries like Belarus, North Korea and Syria will also speak. How formally neutral superpowers like India and China and countries like Iran and Pakistan will act is still uncertain. Subsequently, the Member States vote on the resolution. It could also be Thursday.
Last month, Russia blocked a similar draft resolution at the UN Security Council that also condemned the annexations. However, the UN decided earlier this year that vetoes in the 15-member V-Council must always be explained in plenary in the General Assembly. The General Assembly has no right of veto, but it cannot – unlike the V-Council – enforce its decisions.
It has a kind of déjà vu.
True, at the end of February Russia blocked a draft V-Council resolution condemning the invasion of Ukraine on February 24 and ordering Moscow to stop the attack. In early March, the General Assembly adopted a similar motion, blaming Russia for the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine and removing the country from the UN Human Rights Council. A sizable group of African and Asian countries, including China and India, abstained.
Can the UN really mean anything?
Highly unlikely, due to the entrenched deadlock in the global advisory body, which increasingly translates into helplessness. As mentioned, the V-council can enforce things, for example by sending a UN peacekeeping force, but it is hampered by the permanent members’ veto right. The General Assembly is not subject to vetoes, but it cannot assert anything. Ukraine can therefore expect little from the UN.
Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea is a disturbing lesson. Even then, in the Fifth Council, Russia blocked a resolution condemning a referendum on the future of Crimea and calling on member states not to recognize the outcome of that referendum. The General Assembly subsequently adopted a similar resolution, with 100 votes in favor, 11 against and 58 abstentions. About 24 countries did not vote. Crimea is still in Russian hands.
