The Ultimate Showdown in Rafah: Israel’s Dilemma and Hamas’ Last Stand

We begin our journey with the British newspaper The Independent, which wrote an editorial entitled “If Rafah is attacked, Israel will have nothing to offer in the unwinnable war.”

The newspaper believes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in a dilemma regarding the planned attack on the city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip. On the one hand, he is facing great pressure from US President Joe Biden, Israel’s remaining allies and potential allies in the region, the European Union, Britain, the rest of the international community, the judges at the International Court. of Justice, the Pope, and a large part of Israeli public opinion thirsting for a hostilities exchange deal.

“This global coalition, without exception, begs the Israeli government not to move forward, due to the inevitable loss of civilian life, including children, and the humanitarian crisis that continues to grow,” wrote the Independent.

This includes, according to relief agencies, the spread of disease and man-made famine. As always, there is the possibility of renewed direct conflict with Iran, not to mention Hezbollah, the Houthi movement and other members of the “axis of resistance,” according to the newspaper.

On the other side, we found “pressure from Israel Netanyahu’s ultranationalist political allies, their supporters, a minority in the country, and the political future of the prime minister in the short term. “

“It is his political partners who can remove Netanyahu from office with quick procedures, and not even the United States can do that. Abandoning his friends in the coalition (government) is risk to his career and is something that Netanyahu cannot bear. .”

The newspaper believes that Netanyahu believes that his practical hypothesis and best chance of survival is to level what is left of Gaza to the ground, claiming that Hamas has been defeated – that no terrorist group can realistically be exposed to – and manifest victory and appeal. to Israeli voters for support.

The Independent says: “At this moment, with the enemies remaining in the hands of Hamas, Netanyahu has become very unpopular, and he cannot even avoid a political disaster, no matter what.” so expensive

“And so Netanyahu is pressing. victory in his war.”

The newspaper believes that “in the end, the fighting will end and the demolition of Gaza will stop, if only because there is nothing left to destroy.” “

At this point, we may be reliably sure of three things, according to the newspaper.

First: “There is no guarantee that Hamas, or a similar group, will not launch another violent terrorist act, such as what happened on October 7.”

Second: “Relations between Israel and its powerful neighbors such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia, which are an essential context for regional stability, will remain difficult.”

Third: “More innocent enemies (of various nations) will lose their lives, including as a result of the aerial bombardment launched by the Israeli army.”

The Independent concluded by saying: “Netanyahu will have little to offer in terms of the way he is conducting this unsustainable war, which will lead to completely fruitless results.”

We turn to the London newspaper Al-Sharq Al-Awsat and an article titled “Rafah is the last of the Hamas papers,” wrote Saudi journalist Tariq Al-Hamid.

The writer believes that “Hamas accepted the truce proposal last Monday night, and as it happened, especially after Israel announced that the population of Rafah had been evacuated the same morning, it revealed that Rafah himself was the last card that Hamas was betting on. , and not even the enemies of Israel.”

The writer believes that, according to news reports and reports throughout Monday, Hamas appears to have agreed to a non-agreed version of the peace, and the evidence is that “its approval surprised even the White House, the international community, and I think even the mediator, and not only the Israelis.”

Approval of the movement for peace came after Israel announced, on Monday morning, that some residents of Rafah had been evacuated, which means the beginning of the Israeli attack writer.

But this goal will not be achieved “because an anti-Israeli government led by Netanyahu is concerned about survival, not pleasing anyone. “

The other thing that Hamas did not understand is that “his announcement of the approval of the peace in this way shows that Rafah is his last negotiating card, and not even the card of the prisoners, meaning that the rest are with other groups, or have been killed.”

“All this means that Hamas’ position has become weak internationally, not to mention its weak position on the ground, and the disaster it caused as a result of the October 7 operation has now lead to the Israeli attack on Rafah, which has returned to Rafah. residence to Gaza, as it was before 2005.”

The writer believes that Hamas “as usual, misread the events, Israel’s behavior, and the international approach…

“Israel’s entry into Rafah means today that Hamas does not need further negotiations, as much as it now needs guarantor parties, which increases the position of Hamas, who seems to be looking for a safe outdoor headquarters, and now he may be looking for an outdoor headquarters. guarantor party for safe exit.”

Tariq Al-Hamid concluded his article by saying: “Thus, Hamas’ options are now difficult and limited, and the only option now may be to leave what remains of the leaders and his fighters from Gaza, for two reasons that Hamas has surrendered itself to Netanyahu – and since October 7th.