The UK’s legal argument for declaring (trade) war on the EU

The serious consequences that Northern Ireland Protocol could provoke in Northern Irish society, split in two between Catholics and Protestants, they were not only predictable, but Boris Johnson himself was already more than warned by British officials before sweeping the December 2019 general election.

A few days before the elections were held that gave the Conservatives an absolute majority not seen since the times of Margaret Thatcher, BBC and ‘Financial Times’ published some internal documents of the British Government where they warned of the “serious impact” at the “economic, social and security” level that the customs controls in northern irish ports that London had signed with Brussels in the Brexit agreement.

But Johnson called for calm because he always had a plan: circumvent the international treaty closed with the EU. Moreover, in September 2020, less than four months before the British were to leave the community club for practical purposes, he publicly admitted it, assuring that they were going to rape him, “but only a little.”

You can’t blame him for not going straight. Everyone knew what was going to happen. Included the EU itself. Hence, it has sat down in recent months to renegotiate, even offering to eliminate up to 80% of controls on food, in a last attempt to save the situation.

But the Northern Ireland Protocol was always the chronicle of a death foretold for the Johnson Government. Just as García Márquez took elements of magical realism to tell the end of Santiago Nasar, we are now witnessing another type of creativity to break the law.

Override the EU Court

Everything indicates that this week the Government will present a bill in the House of Commons so that the Northern Ireland companies can welcome, a la carte, to the Community or British regulationsthe controls that now have to be carried out on goods arriving from Great Britain (Scotland, England and Wales) are suspended and the powers of the European Court of Justice are eliminated.

The Fiscal General of the State, Suella Braverman, has already warned that the plans of the British Executive would be legal because the EU’s interpretation of the controls is “disproportionate and unreasonable”.

The protocol leaves North Ireland officially in the UK customs territory. But, to avoid a hard border with the Republic of Ireland (member of the EU), the British province is at the same time aligned with community customs codes, especially with regard to goods.

Catholics and Protestants

The fact of leaving the British province with a different status from the rest of the United Kingdom predicted long-standing tensions between Catholics and Protestants. And the predictions have come true. The historic triumph of the Sinn Féin republicans in the Belfast Assembly has created a political crisis. The unionists of the DUP now refuse to form a coalition government – which both communities must respect – until the Protocol is modified.

Therefore, the argument that Downing Street now uses is that it would be legal to invalidate some provisionsas they threaten stability in Northern Ireland and the peace signed between Catholics and Protestants in 1998 must now take precedence over the Brexit agreement with the EU.

Historic triumph of Sinn Féin: closer to the reunification of Ireland?

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If the UK decided act unilaterally Brussels could reactivate the legal process that it had initiated against the draft Internal Market Law that the British Government presented in its day in the House of Commons (the same with which they already warned that it would violate the Brexit agreement “but only a little “) and that was stopped in the House of Lords.

Brussels could also impose tariffs on British products, which would threaten to start a trade war between both sides, and even completely suspend the Trade and Cooperation Agreement that sets the terms in which the United Kingdom left the bloc. In short, all kinds of relations between the two parties could be suspended, except for matters arising from the war in Ukraine.

Foreign Minister Liz Truss last week held a tense phone conversation with the community vice president, Maros Sefcovic, where he warned that his government “will have no choice but to act” if the bloc does not show “the necessary flexibility” to improve the situation. The European Commission considers that the unilateral action by the United Kingdom “It’s just not acceptable.”

The aggressiveness of the person in charge of British diplomacy is even creating divisions within the Conservative Executive’s Cabinet itself. In the midst of the economic crisis, faced with the rise in the cost of living, some ministers, such as the head of the Treasury, Rishi Sunak, they consider that it is not exactly the best time to play the ordago. But Truss is playing his particular inside game by positioning his leadership on the far right side of the party, in case Johnson is ultimately forced to resign over the Partygate scandal.

Opinion

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The tension has reached such extremes that, in the coming days, the arrival of a delegation of influential representatives of the United States Congress is expected to hold a series of meetings in Brussels, Dublin, London and Belfast. In its day, Washington — where the Irish lobby is powerful— was very involved in the peace negotiations between Catholics and Protestants and now fears that everything will collapse.

Joe Biden has already warned that if London finally takes unilateral action it would be a provocation. The American president has always spoken proudly of his Irish roots and on more than one occasion has warned Downing Street that, fail to comply with the Irish Protocol, this would have repercussions for a future UK-US trade deal.

In the midst of nervousness about the consequences for transatlantic relations, Downing Street has sent Conor Burns, a Belfast-born Catholic Secretary of State, to the United States to try to smooth things over. “We still want a negotiated solution. But if Brussels feels that there is nothing more to talk about, then we have a moral obligation to take action to protect our citizens in Northern Ireland,” he added.

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The serious consequences that Northern Ireland Protocol could provoke in Northern Irish society, split in two between Catholics and Protestants, they were not only predictable, but Boris Johnson himself was already more than warned by British officials before sweeping the December 2019 general election.

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