The Russians have restarted the offensive against Donbas, but the Ukrainians are sticking sticks in Vladimir Putin’s wheels, says Palle Ydstebø. Nevertheless, there is uncertainty about the Russians’ intentions with a nuclear power plant.
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Ydstebø is head teacher at Krigsskolen. He says that it is now a question of which of the countries can dictate and obtain a balance of power that enables one to set the conditions for the war.
– There is a battle over the strategic initiative, which has been going on all summer and will continue in the autumn.
– None of those goals achieved
Ydstebø says that the Russians have carried out a number of attacks against various villages in Donbas, without much progress. About half of the Russian forces have been sent against the Donbas, while the Ukrainians have been carrying out a gradual offensive against the city of Kherson for a month.
– The Ukrainians want to break Russia’s land connection to the Crimean peninsula, that is an obvious goal.
–Ydstebø says that the Ukrainians defend themselves well.
– Russia has not advanced more than 10, 15 kilometers in three months.
Map showing the city of Kherson:
Map showing the county of Donbas:
Jakub M. Godzimirski at the Norwegian Foreign Policy Institute (Nupi), says that at the start of the war, many interpreted it as Russia’s desire to “remove the incumbent Ukrainian power elite led by President Volodymyr Zelenskyj, destroy Ukraine’s defense capabilities, and help Luhansk and Donetsk gain control in areas to which they believed they were entitled.”
– After five months of extensive hostilities, none of those goals have been achieved.
–– Russia and its supporters have managed to gain control over Luhansk county, but Ukraine still controls large parts of Donbas.
– Remarkable results
Karl Erik Haug, head of the department of modern social history at NTNU, describes the war as a “war of attrition”.
– For Ukraine, it is all about persevering. If they can take out the supply lines to Russia, they might be able to do the offensive that Zelenskyj has indicated.
–A few weeks ago, the US sent missiles to Ukraine. Norway sent launch platforms to Great Britain, which then sent these on to Ukraine. Equipment that has been of great help to Ukraine’s defense.
– These have produced remarkable results. Russia has seen itself forced to pull its warehouses further back, says Ydstebø, and adds that the Russians now have to work harder to reach their troops with supplies.
Haug says that for Ukraine it is a matter of holding out until they receive sufficient arms aid.
– Now they are able to take out lines of sight and the depots of the Russians.
Godzimirski says that Russia probably did not expect such a prolonged war with heavy losses, and that they are unable to replenish their weapons stockpiles.
– There have been many reports that Russia is having problems getting people to enlist, which is important for maintaining Russia’s fighting ability.
– Can have major consequences
Belarus’s president, Aleksandr Lukashenko, has said that the war must end if it is to be done avoid a nuclear war.
Ydstebø believes that there is no reason to fear a nuclear war.
– This is how various people on Belarus’ side have waved with support and constantly – it is a warning shot. Russia uses Belarus for air and missile strikes – they are willing allies.
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On Thursday, Ukraine claimed that Russia keeps weapons in the occupied Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant.
Earlier on Thursday, Russia accused Ukraine of firing at the facility.
Godzimirski says that “there are very few who currently fear that this could develop into a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons.”
– What is a danger is that Ukraine may have problems covering its energy needs, because Russia controls the largest of their nuclear power plants. Technical problems or accidents may also occur in this power plant, which could have major consequences for both Ukraine and the rest of Europe.
–Haug says that if it is the case that the Russians are using the facility as a weapons warehouse, then this is a way for them to protect their weapons. Which indicates that the Russians are vulnerable.
Common interests
Tuesday Putin made the trip to Iran to visit the country’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, and the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
After the meeting, Putin is said to have paid tribute to the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Putin’s visit to Iran sends strong signals to the West about who he wants strategic cooperation with, writes Reuters. The Russian president appears to be forging ties with Iran, China and India over Western sanctions.
– It is clear that Russia is trying to acquire the technology that was affected by the sanctions – such as drones and things like that. Iran and Russia are not the world’s best friends either, but they have a common enemy in the US, says Ydstebø.
He goes on to say that Erdogan wants to be part of this, because of them ongoing negotiations in NATO.
–Haug says that this is also about games in the Middle East.
– If Iran can in any way contribute to supplying Russia with weapons, then it is interesting for them.
–On Friday, Russia and Ukraine signed a new agreement for the export of grain.
– The agreement will open up the export of Ukrainian grain, which is important for preventing a global famine. But signing an agreement is one thing, getting it implemented is quite another. In other words, we have to wait and see how this will be implemented, while the war will take its course regardless of this agreement, says Godzimirski.
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