For some time walking the streets of Sarajevo it can happen to catch a dark and distant noise, a kind of sound track which intermittently forms the backdrop to the traffic of the city. It is the sound produced by the exercises made in the sky of Bosnia Herzegovina dall’Euforthe peacekeeping force ofEuropean Union which, after the explosion of the Ukrainian crisis, was quick to arrange for the dispatch of new contingents to protect the small Balkan country. With the political instability determined above all by the Bosnian Serbian leader Milorad Dodik which aspires to the secession of the Republic of Serbia (one of the two entities that make up the country together with the Croatian-Muslim Federation), Bosnia is in fact one of the contexts that is most likely to be affected by the war in Ukraine. Fears that have been highlighted by the Prime Minister Mario Draghiaccording to which it is necessary to “bring back the political and institutional crisis that has paralyzed the country since last July” and resume the path of reforms to get closer to theEuropean Union. Even the secretary general of NATO, Jens Stoltenbergquoted from Brussels the Bosnian case as one of the scenarios “At risk due to Russian pressure”.
The perceived threat dimension that reigns in institutional settings is the international interpretation of a concern that is strongly felt also at the local level. Many citizens, in recent weeks, have rushed to the supermarkets to empty the shelves of oil, farina and other basic necessities. “Economic insecurity, rising prices and inflation are effects of the war that are everywhere, but which in particular in Bosnia-Herzegovina should not be underestimated – he explains Rodolfo Toè, political analyst and expert in the Balkan area – Here the citizens come from an economic crisis that has been going on for ten years and with the new increases they could decide to protest even in a violent way to ask for a change at the top. And at that point, yes, someone could take the opportunity to collapse the already precarious situation “.
The Balkan countries and the Russia they are not just elements of identity and religious community. The shadow that gives Kremlin extends over the villages offormer Yugoslavia above all it has the contours of an armed wing. And it is above all this detail that arouses so many concerns in the summits of the European Union and of the Then. “If we take the case of the Serbiawe can say that it is a European country for economic aspirations, but it is heavily dependent on Russia for its security policy. Moscow has always supplied them weapons e missiles“. At the same time, however, Serbia cannot afford to take a position too distant from European leaders by supporting Putin. At stake is the good outcome of the long process of joining the group of 27 which should end with the entry in 2025 (together with the Montenegro).
Despite the complex interweaving of relations that unite the fate of the Balkans with that of the Russians, Toè argues that there are “no immediate risks to the security of the region, for a very practical reason: Moscow has no way of influencing the situation, it will not send troops. in Bosnia and Serbia it will not act militarily to implement the annexation of the Republika Srpska of Bosnia. Paradoxically, indeed, what is happening could have a almost calming effect, at least in the short term. Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik and Serbs in general may feel much more isolated, somehow forced to have a more conciliatory attitude towards the international community “.
Although the situation is now under control, it does not help the fact that the repercussions of the Ukrainian crisis weigh on the stability of Bosnia-Herzegovina in a particularly delicate year: that of the 30 years since the beginning of the conflict in the 1990s and the one in which they will take place. the political elections more complicated than ever, due to the difficulties in finding an agreement on the electoral reform. “Contrary to what happens in the Baltic countries, where the majority of citizens are in favor of joining NATO, in Bosnia-Herzegovina the issue is extremely divisive and it is a difference of contexts that is worth underlining. Muslims and Croats are in favor of getting closer to the Atlantic Alliance, but the Serbs obviously don’t, they perceive it as the enemy army that bombed them in 1999 – says the analyst – An escalation therefore cannot be ruled out. It could happen when NATO concretely carries out the integration of Bosnia, provoking the reaction of the Serbs. In that case Dodik could take advantage of this to precipitate the situation and declare a referendum for the secession of the Republika Srpska ”.
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