“The Ukrainian offensive is definitely lagging behind the preliminary expectations and the set operational goals of reaching the shores of the Sea of Azov and separating Crimea from the rest of Russia. This is unrealistic to say the least in the context of the current high losses,” said military expert Gustav Gressel for ARD. According to him, the Russian defensive positions are too solid to be breached. But there are also individual successes, which is due to the fact that the Ukrainians are withdrawing tired fighters from the front and replacing them with new ones.
The expert believes that a breakthrough can be achieved between Zaporozhye and Donetsk. However, he is skeptical that after three months offensive Ukraine is even capable of this, understand – does it have enough opportunities for such a breakthrough.
Gressel tells ARD that the Russian troops are also very exhausted by the war – even more than the Ukrainian ones. Both sides have to use reservists, which is a problem for both Russian and Ukrainian commanders.
“Russia and Ukraine want a solution”
This week there was again talk of possible peace talks, but whether the moment for them has come – to this question, the military expert says that the governments in the US and Germany definitely believe that at some point Ukraine should start negotiating with Russia, such as the supply of weapons should provide a better negotiating position for Ukraine. “But they should not allow Ukraine to defeat Russia militarily.”
According to Gressel, the problem is that Russia is bent on the complete destruction of Ukraine as an independent state and is unwilling to negotiate for anything less than that. Ukraine, for its part, defines the war as a war of independence so that Russia can finally recognize it as an independent state. “In this sense, the willingness to negotiate does not reflect the political reality of the warring parties and can safely be ignored.”
“The war will last at least until 2025”
Gustav Gressel is convinced that the war will in any case last until 2025. His explanation is related to the upcoming US presidential elections: “If Donald Trump wins in November 2024, the Russian side expects a deal to be offered, so the spring of 2025 will be the earliest the war can end – according to Russian conditions. If Biden wins, which seems more likely for now, the war can be expected to continue beyond 2025.”
The German expert also told ARD that Putin is in favor of prolonging the war, which would increase Russia’s chances of victory. Its arms industry is in full swing, and Ukraine needs more supplies of tanks and other weapons to fend off Russian attacks. Gressel believes that a lot of time is wasted in pointless debates: “Putin sees that the Western democracies are weak and disunited, and they do not provide him with evidence to the contrary. Words must be followed by deeds,” said the expert, who does not hide, that this does not work.
“NATO must secure shipping on the Black Sea”
On the occasion of Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports, as well as in connection with Ukrainian attacks on Russian ships and tankers, Gustav Gressel recalls that while Russia has a powerful navy, Ukraine only has coast guard forces in the Black Sea. “Russia is using its advantage and its ability to control the maritime space far from Ukraine’s coastline to try to impose a blockade on it,” he also told DV. “It’s about a strategy of economic detachment: Moscow is trying to destroy all types of economic activity that still bring income to Kyiv,” the observer specified. According to him, the problem is that Russia constantly tries to go beyond the limits of what is allowed by international law and what other countries are willing to accept. Therefore, NATO countries must insist on the right to free navigation, and not only in writing, but also by securing it with military means.
Bulgaria and Romania – NATO’s weak link in the Black Sea
However, the situation for NATO is not easy – due to their weak naval forces, Romania and Bulgaria basically do not have the means to defend their interests in the Black Sea, the expert told DV. Turkey, on the other hand, is playing its own game, trying to use its control over the Mediterranean straits against the Americans to get more concessions. “Washington, for its part, does not want to enter the Black Sea militarily, admitting whether or not that Russia has the say there,” Gressel says.
His summary: “On the one hand, we already have a lack of will, on the other – a lack of resources in the countries that are willing to do this. That’s where the problem lies.”
The material is published HERE>>>
2023-08-20 09:57:13
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