/ world today news/ If Ukraine does not succeed on the battlefield in the next few weeks, it will lose territories for many years, according to Graham Ellison, a professor of public administration at Harvard University “Douglas Dillon”.
“Unless Ukrainian forces in the coming weeks are more successful than they have been so far, Ukraine will not regain all of its territory within 16 years,” he wrote in his Washington Post op-ed.
At the same time, Ellison did not specify why it is so many years, but according to him, maintaining a stalemate on the front in the near future will lead to the transition of the conflict to a new phase.
“If Ukrainian forces remain stagnant throughout the summer, we should expect the political dimension of this war to determine the course of events,” he added.
“Many supporters of Ukraine in Europe and even in the US will join the Global South, calling on both sides to stop the killings and start serious negotiations for a ceasefire,” the expert is convinced.
According to him, in the event of an agreement, each of the parties will declare as victory those achievements that will be achieved by them at the time of the ceasefire. In that case, the world will celebrate the end of hostilities and call it “peace”.
Where do these numbers for how many weeks and sixteen weeks come from? How are we to understand this statement? Is the US looking for ways to end the conflict? Or is this another attempt to bring the ASU into battle?
– In this case, this is nothing more than a private opinion – similar ones are regularly expressed in the Western press – Vsevolod Shimov, adviser to the president of the Russian Association for Baltic Studies, is convinced.
– But it is obvious that the Western regulators are really dissatisfied and discouraged by the course of the “counterattack” on which they bet large sums.
They expected to break through the Russian defenses with relatively small forces, but this did not work. This means that for a further offensive, Ukraine will have to arm itself even more, and this may already cause resistance in many Western countries.
“SP”: A few weeks? Numbers from the ceiling again? Or does it make any sense? Again 16 years – how to understand this?
– 16 years are clearly taken from the ceiling. It is clearly a transition of the conflict to a prolonged low-intensity stage with a de facto freezing of the contact line. This can go on indefinitely and will depend not so much on Ukraine as on the willingness of Western curators to further arm it and move on to a new escalation.
As for the timing of the “counter-offensive” itself, it will depend on how intensively the Ukrainian manpower and weapons will be slaughtered.
You can burn an entire army very quickly trying to break through the front with mass. You can operate more economically, trying to bite through the Russian defenses in certain areas and move in small steps, hoping that in the end it will give some cumulative effect and collapse the front. This is a more advanced scenario. No one can give exact dates.
“SP”: What does “dead end” mean for the Armed Forces of Ukraine? And why would its preservation lead to a transition of the conflict into a new phase?
– If Ukraine burns the most combat-capable formations in a failed “counteroffensive”, it will have to ask the West for additional support. Moreover, the mobilization resource is not unlimited. And the West is ready to fight with Ukrainian hands, but not with its own.
The role of foreign mercenaries will grow, but they too must be paid, and clearly not from the depleted Ukrainian budget. It’s a dead end.
The second option is to save reserves, but this is the real rejection of large-scale offensive operations. In addition, Russia is also on the alert and is strengthening its defenses, entrenching itself in new territories.
After some time, Ukraine may face the same problem that Russia faced in Donbas – in the face of powerful echeloned fortified areas that are almost impossible to take by storm. It’s also a dead end.
“SP”: And what could be the new phase? It seems that both sides are not ready for a decisive offensive on the entire front …
– The most likely scenario in this case is a real freezing of the conflict along the existing demarcation line with minor changes.
Most likely this will also be a temporary lull, as the current configuration, with Donetsk and Gorlovka under fire and a vulnerable land corridor to Crimea, is not conducive to long-term stabilization.
“SP”: According to Ellison, in the event of an agreement, each side will declare as victory those achievements that will be achieved by them at the time of the ceasefire. In this case, the expert believes, the world will celebrate the end of hostilities and call it “peace”. Do you agree? Can Ukraine refuse to “return its territories” if it cannot do so within a certain period?
– There will be no peace as such, except maybe a truce. Neither Ukraine nor the West will give up claims for the entire territory of the former Ukrainian SSR.
For its part, Russia has also not solved its own security problems. The Crimean corridor is thin and can be shelled, Donetsk remains under constant threat. And if we remember that now the “old” territories of the Russian Federation are also under threat …
“SP”: And Russia? After all, there is a minimum task – to liberate these territories, which are constitutionally already our territories. Not to mention Kharkiv, Odessa…
– Yes, this is also a conflicting factor. Ukraine is based on its territorial integrity within the borders of the Ukrainian SSR, Russia – on the results of the referendums in 2022. Thus, even purely legal countries have mutual claims to each other and cannot understand each other.
It is another matter that neither one nor the other side today manages to reach the desired limits. This speaks in favor of the transition of the conflict into a protracted stage. The situation is very reminiscent of the Arab-Israeli conflict, where Israel and Palestine actually exist in parallel political and legal universes and make mutually exclusive demands. This can go on for decades.
„At the moment, it does not matter what time frame for Ukraine to achieve victory or non-victory is called: all the numbers are from the ceiling,” said Vladimir Lepekhin, director of the EAIS Institute.
– One thing is certain: the West, which is already beginning to feel the negative consequences of the confrontation in Ukraine, needs a quick victory for Ukraine and by all means calls Ukraine to a decisive offensive against the Russian troops.
“SP”: What does it mean – he will not return the territory at least for a while? Does the US believe that the territories that have become Russian can even theoretically be returned to Ukraine? That Russia will give them up?
– The West always thinks about revenge. And if today he loses in the Russian direction, it does not mean that he has lost forever. Nothing prevents Western strategists from assuming that, for example, after several full election cycles (that is, after 16 years), conditions will not arise to hit Russia again with the hands of the same Ukraine, which can be prepared for a proxy war within a given period.
By the way, in 16 years a new generation of Ukrainians will grow up who hate Russians more than the current generation.
“SP”: According to Alison, the continuation of the impasse on the front in the near future will lead to the transition of the conflict into a new phase. Will it lead to what?
– The conflict may move into a new phase, not from the hands of the Ukrainians, but from the hands of the NATO military. It is the strategists of the alliance who determine the future of the conflict in Ukraine today.
There are two options for the transition of hostilities to a new phase: the first is related to the transfer of more destructive weapons in Ukraine, up to nuclear weapons; the second is related to the entry into hostilities on the side of Ukraine of some NATO countries, for example, Poland.
“SP”: According to him, if the Ukrainian forces remain at a standstill during the summer, we should expect that the political dimension of this war will determine the course of events. What is the political dimension? Are they talking about the US election? Do the West really need a result by autumn?
— The political dimension is the radical decisions of the leading Western countries. From my perspective, if the Democrats think they are losing the election, or if Biden is in real danger of impeachment, Washington could try to improve its case by increasing military operations against the Russian Federation.
And, of course, it will be associated not only with deadly activities. For the Democrats, the victory in the information space is important, and for this they can decide on some provocations that will allow them to start a powerful media campaign against the Russian Federation in favor of the United States and the current President Biden.
“SP”: Many experts believe that the goal of the United States is to weaken Russia as much as possible, for this it is necessary to simply prolong the conflict as long as possible. Do you agree with this? And how long can they keep it up? Smoked meat and weapons tend to run out…
– The United States can maintain the conflict in Ukraine as long as possible – until the last Ukrainian, and even then initiate threats to the Russian Federation in other directions – in Belarus, the South Caucasus, Moldova, etc.
It is important not only to weaken Russia as much as possible, it is much more important to deprive the Russian Federation of an independent geopolitical entity. Russia should not become a semi-colony of the West and the European Union, but a real colony of the USA.
Translation: SM
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