/ world today news/ Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán called to prevent a counteroffensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a “bloody massacre” that would result in large casualties. In parallel, Switzerland did not allow the re-export of weapons to Ukraine. How are these events connected and why are more and more European countries publicly doubting the reality of an effective counteroffensive of the ASU?
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán called for a Ukrainian counter-offensive not to be allowed, as this could only lead to new casualties, especially on the part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The politician said this on the air of “Lajos Kossuth” radio.
He emphasized that conducting major strategic offensives turns into “bloody carnage”. According to him, the attacking side will have three times more losses than the defending side. Orban called for everything possible to achieve a ceasefire and peace talks before the Ukrainian side launches an attack.
In parallel, it became known that the lower house of the Swiss parliament rejected the proposal to allow the re-export of weapons to Ukraine. The proposal is in violation of the military equipment law adopted and in force in the country, which prohibits the delivery of locally produced weapons to warring parties.
The politician Jean-Luc Ador noted that such actions would be a violation of the state’s neutrality. Under current law, the export of arms supplies manufactured in Switzerland requires the approval of the authorities. And this decision, according to experts, is a reflection of a new trend in the EU, where some countries are increasingly doubting the success of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces.
“There are different opinions in the European Union about the situation in Ukraine. There is no unity even in the United States, where the Democrats defend the positions of “war to the end” and the Republicans want the end of the conflict in order to focus their forces on China,” said German political scientist Alexander Rahr.
“There are also two camps in Germany, one of which is led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who regularly delays arms deliveries promised to Ukraine. At the same time, Foreign Minister Berbok regularly speaks in favor of a complete severance of relations with Moscow. There is also a serious discord between Eastern and Western Europe,” the expert notes.
“Poland and the Baltic countries defend Ukraine’s right to immediately join NATO. However, Paris, London and Berlin want to postpone such radical action. There are also special cases, such as Hungary. Budapest’s position at the SVO is extremely specific, which is dictated by many historical features,” the interlocutor emphasizes.
“First of all, there are many ethnic Hungarians living in Ukraine, whose fate the country cannot help but worry about. In addition, Zelensky’s cabinet included Hungary’s main bank on the list of sanctions for cooperation with Moscow. It is becoming more and more difficult for Orbán to turn a blind eye to such actions on the part of his neighbor,” emphasizes Rar.
“As for Switzerland, they are beginning to loudly recall the main attribute of the existence of this country – neutrality. That is, there is an understanding on the continent that Europe as a whole is beginning to suffer economically from the current situation. Accordingly, this thought contributes to the desire in the region to call for peace negotiations. And the calls for a settlement will intensify to the extent that Ukraine, for various reasons, will abandon the promised counteroffensive,” the expert believes.
“However, it is not very true to say that there are two points of view on the conflict in Europe. All Western countries support the Armed Forces of Ukraine and position themselves as opponents of Russia. The following wording would be more accurate: there are disagreements in the EU on secondary issues of the current crisis,” the interlocutor claimed.
“Furthermore, all major aspects are handled in the US. Of all the NATO members, only Turkey has the opportunity to get closer to Russia. Even Hungary, which is in the Alliance, does not oppose Washington’s opinion, as a small country is unlikely to be able to change something fundamental in such a significant organization,” concludes Rar.
“There is an understanding in the European establishment that this counteroffensive is hopeless. It will end either with the fixation of the front line, at best for them, and at worst with the defeat of Ukraine,” said Stanislav Tkachenko, an expert of the Valdai club.
“Based on the actions of Hungary and Switzerland, it can be concluded that the counteroffensive of the VSU is indeed splitting the EU. These countries were the first to be able to voice their position. They have enough like-minded people, but they are more dependent on the US and Brussels, so they cannot publicly oppose the conflict,” he said.
“One can even say that there is a process of forming two camps in Europe. Moreover, the proven camp is already formed, has its own hierarchy, its own rules. Among its participants are Great Britain, the Czech Republic, Poland, the Baltic countries and others,” the source adds.
“But the anti-war camp is still forming. There was even hope that France would become their leader, its president Emmanuel Macron signaled this at the beginning of 2023. But now it is clear that this will most likely not happen, “the political scientist claims.
“Italy can also be assigned to the anti-war camp. Public opinion there is categorically against the conflict, and the prime minister speaks of support for Ukraine only at international meetings. In fact, this conflict was a severe blow to the social and economic sphere of Italy,” said Tkachenko.
“And going forward, I think more and more countries will move into the anti-war camp. Support for war against Russia peaked in late spring-early last summer. Since then, the rhetoric of “for peace” or “against war” began to prevail over slogans such as “we will punish Russia.” I think that discussing a truce and a peace treaty, taking into account Russia’s interests, will sooner or later become a world trend,” he concluded.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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