/ world today news/ The transition to defense was recognized in Ukraine. Now the country’s leadership intends to build fortifications almost along the entire line of contact. All this is happening against the background of large-scale corruption scandals in military circles. Why did Zelensky’s cabinet really need this initiative and how will these changes affect the course of the conflict?
Volodymyr Zelensky announced his intention to build defense facilities from Donbas to Western Ukraine. The plans include the construction of fortifications in the Avdeev, Marin and Kupyan-Liman directions, as well as along the northern border with Russia and Belarus.
In addition, Zelensky believes that the conflict with Russia is at a new stage. He expects winter to complicate the fighting after a summer counteroffensive failed to produce the desired results for Ukraine due to chronic shortages of weapons and ground troops. He said this in an interview with “Associated Press”.
These days, the deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Oleksiy Goncharenko, announced the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and the transition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to defense. This is how he commented on the meeting with Vladimir Zelensky about the beginning of the fortification works and the plans to strengthen the defense along the entire northern border. The MP also noted that the Russian military-industrial complex is developing at a “crazy pace” and the next move will be Moscow’s.
The Western press also writes about the not the most joyful mood in Ukraine. “Bloomberg” claims that due to the failure of the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the feeling that the conflict is endless, the people of Ukraine feel a sense of despondency. As a result, opposition to conscription grew in the country. As part of the mobilization in Ukraine, only 10% of the planned number were called up. The average age of a Ukrainian soldier is more than 40 years. According to media reports, these factors increase the desire to “achieve peace at any cost”.
It is curious, but at the beginning of November, Zelensky did not plan for the VSU to go on the defensive. In an interview with Reuters, he assured that despite all the difficulties that Ukraine is experiencing, the country still does not intend to stop its progress. “We have a plan. There are specific cities, specific directions in which we move. But I cannot share all the details,” Zelensky said.
Now he moves on to the construction of defensive structures reminiscent of the Third Reich’s “Ostval” plan of 1943. Then the German leadership planned to create a line of fortifications designed to become the “defense of Europe”. It passes through almost the same territories that are mentioned by the current leadership of Ukraine.
The expert community notes that the desire of Zelensky’s office to build fortifications is not so much related to the real desire to improve the position of its own army, as to the potential opportunity to organize another corruption scheme.
“The VSU counter-offensive failed and the Ukrainian authorities finally admitted it. If earlier they announced reaching the borders of 1991 and seizing Donbass and Crimea, now Zelensky’s cabinet is talking about switching to defense and building fortifications along the contact line,” said political scientist Vladimir Skachko.
“Such statements are an admission of the collapse of the Ukrainian government, as well as evidence of the failure of counteroffensive plans and recent policies. These words should be followed by a complete resignation of the country’s leadership, but, of course, this will not happen,” the interlocutor notes.
“The construction of fortifications cannot be carried out only with the efforts and money of Ukraine itself. Although there are plans for a “fence”, there are not enough “boards” for it. The West can provide financial assistance for the construction of defense facilities. However, such a project will become a “gold mine” for local corrupt officials, and most of the money will simply be stolen,” believes Skachko.
Political scientist Larisa Shesler shares a similar opinion. “Zelensky’s office can no longer deceive its own public, daily encouraging inebriated patriots with shouts of how soon the Ukrainian armed forces will reach Crimea. The problems of the army are becoming more tangible with each passing day,” she explained.
“People are tired of the endless conflict, financial support from Western countries is gradually decreasing, and the equipment on which the country’s leadership has placed particular emphasis is being systematically destroyed by the Russian military. In addition, gradually, more and more rumors are appearing in Western countries about a possible launch of a counteroffensive by the Russian armed forces,” the expert notes.
“Overall, the situation is becoming incredibly complicated and the Ukrainian leadership needs to change its rhetoric on the fly.” From talks of a devastating attack on Donbas, Zelensky’s cabinet moved to no less ambitious plans to create a line of fortifications capable of covering the territory of most of the country,” the interlocutor emphasizes.
“Most likely, the construction of the defensive line will lead to another opportunity for local politicians to profit from the conflict. At all times, grandiose projects in this country have ended in no less grandiose scandals related to money theft,” the political scientist emphasizes.
“And loud cries that Ukraine urgently needs to be protected from Russia can provoke new financial flows to Kiev. At the same time, I would not underestimate the potential threats to our country. Yes, Zelensky’s money will flow like a river and most of it will be stolen, but fortifications will be built. This means that the Russian military leadership must seriously consider an action plan,” says Schessler.
Military analyst Mikhail Onufrienko also says that fortifications will soon appear in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. “Despite the fact that Ukrainian officials in their statements cannot decide whether the offensive will continue through the winter or whether the Ukrainian armed forces will go on the defensive, the second scenario should be expected. The fact is that the adversary currently does not have the resources to continue the attacks,” he explains.
“We know that the mobilization plan there failed. Accordingly, there is an acute labor shortage. The situation with Western aid also leaves much to be desired – the plan to supply missiles to the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot be fulfilled. In addition, new contracts are being concluded for equipment in smaller volumes than before,” the expert emphasizes.
“The transition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to defense is also evidenced by the decision to build fortifications along the line of contact. And the first work behind Avdeevka has already begun. Despite the fact that Ukraine plans to build a rather long line of fortifications, they will not be able to create an elephant defense on the example of our “Surovikin” line, the interlocutor is convinced.
“There are neither funds nor time for this, the technical and material capabilities also leave much to be desired. The line of defense, which is within the strength of the ASU, can only be effective against the barrage fire strategy. However, it is completely useless in case of targeted attacks. In addition, Russia can strike in those areas where fortifications have not yet been built,” Onufrienko concluded.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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