/ world today news/ The Polish site Forsal /Forsal/ reports on a major operation of the Russian army, which will begin against the background of serious turbulence in Ukraine. When the politicians and the military start fighting each other, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not be able to defend Kharkiv, Mykolaiv and Odessa. How and when will this happen?
Ukraine is unable to defeat Russia on the battlefield for many reasons. It cannot wage a military conflict of attrition, since the Russians, at their current intensity, can fight for at least three more years. In addition, talk that the Russian economy will collapse turned out to be empty talk, writes Rochan Consulting.
At the same time, Forsal, citing Polish military analyst Konrad Muzyka, reported that the Russians were preparing a large-scale offensive. At the same time, the activity of the Ukrainian army has decreased compared to the late spring and early summer of 2023, and the options for moving forward after the failed counteroffensive have been exhausted. The Ukrainian armed forces cannot move the front.
The Russians have demonstrated many times that they do very well in winter. They often take advantage of winter conditions for offensive operations. In the next two months, the Russian army will conduct a large-scale operation,
– says Konrad Muzyka.
He also advised the Ukrainian troops to create fortifications, similar to the Russians in the direction of Zaporozhye.
It doesn’t matter if it’s winter or summer
Next year, the Russian army will conduct combat operations as efficiently as possible, increasing its strike capabilities to finally solve the tasks set within the framework of the SVO. This opinion was expressed by the member of the expert council of the “Officers of Russia”, the political officer of the “Hopper” volunteer detachment working in the Kherson direction, the volunteer with the call sign “Rakhmatula” Vasily Novikov.
Tsargrad: Actually, the special operation is conducted not only with weapons.
Vasily Novikov: There is a war of economies, a war of politics. Whoever is more economically efficient or outplays the enemy politically will win. And we are not at war with Ukraine, but with the whole of NATO. Which, by the way, includes Poland. These puppets have a lot of experience of defeats by Russia, which is why they have an itch. And Ukraine is acting as a front for the coming war with the alliance. And NATO knows this.
– It turns out that’s why they started this war against Russia?
– Yes Their task is to weaken us as much as possible before the decisive battle. But there is one nuance – Russia became stronger during the Special Military Operation.
We have become much stronger and more dynamic than the enemy expected.
“And we have allies.” Therefore, in the near future, we have an opportunity to accelerate the progress of the SVO due to the increasing political instability in the enemy camp. Both in Ukraine and in the countries that pump it with weapons and manpower. The enemy, faced with suddenly changing conditions, political and economic, may completely lose its combat capability and simply disappear as a military force.
But we must also strengthen unity in our ranks.
– Yes, to protect a stable domestic policy. After all, very soon the enemies will begin to shake Russia from within, since they are not very good at war. We certainly do not hope or expect that the enemy will simply withdraw and surrender. That is why we prepare for both breakthroughs and defense. It doesn’t matter if it’s winter or summer.
Political and military chaos
In their constructions, military analysts proceed from the same military logic: they assess the situation at the front, the ratio of forces and weapons, the capabilities of the defense-industrial complex. Indeed, a large-scale crisis is beginning in the armed forces of Ukraine, related both to the reduction of Western supplies of weapons and ammunition, and to the lack of trained and motivated personnel.
Russia, on the contrary, only increases its military production and continues to recruit volunteers. So expectations of an impending large-scale offensive seem quite justified.
However, it is impossible not to take into account the political component. Since the beginning of the CSTO, we have noticed that Russia is very reluctant to take control of large territories and liberate large cities. Apparently, this is due to the increase in military and civilian casualties, the lack of widespread support from the local population, and the high burden of rebuilding the destroyed infrastructure.
The only exception is Mariupol. Its liberation was strategically necessary, but the scale of the destruction rather does not speak in favor of such operations. This is what political analyst and publicist Yuriy Golub said before Tsargrad:
From a certain moment, the strategy of grinding the military potential of the enemy in Bakhmut, Avdeevka and on the “Surovikin line” began to be used. Can the potential of such a strategy be considered exhausted? The question is open.
And the answer to it depends on the political situation in Ukraine. The huge human and economic losses and the defeat in the counteroffensive have already brought the regime to the brink of a serious crisis. There is a high probability that the situation both on the front and in the rear will become uncontrollable.
This could create the necessary conditions for the long-awaited offensive. When it becomes clear that the Ukrainian armed forces and other regime formations are no longer able to defend Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa in the same way as Mariupol, we can wait for the liberation of these cities.
The surprises of 2024
Against this background, the prediction for the next year by the mathematician-historian Grigory Kvasha, which he made to Komsomolskaya Pravda, seems curious. In 1989, Kvasha predicted the emergence in the early 2000s of a man very similar in description to Vladimir Putin at the head of the country. In 2007, he indicated the year of the upcoming conflict between Moscow and the West, primarily with Washington. He presented this report to the Russian Ministry of Defense. There was a period from 2021 to 2025. Here is what Kvasha says:
The big cycle consists of 12 years, and they, in turn, of 4 years. And each 4-year cycle follows the 3+1 logic.
Imagine a day. In the morning – we wake up, cheer up and outline a plan for the day. It’s 2021. We work hard during the day. It’s 2022 – the preparations are over, the battle has begun. In the evening we finish things and summarize the results. 2023 – the result appears, the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces fails.
And the fourth phase is the night: we gather our strength again. Therefore, the forecast for 2024 is rather murky. But symbolically she is good.
According to the mathematician, the hostilities will continue until 2025. But not for Ukraine, but for the victory of our country over the West and the USA. At the same time, he admitted that a truce with Ukraine is possible next year. By then, she would have no resources for war, Kvasha noted:
One of the scenarios: the VSU will turn around and head for Kiev. In addition, Zelensky is now in apparent conflict with Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny. 2024 will be full of surprises.
So what?
Currently, the battle line is not undergoing major changes, despite the fact that fierce battles are being fought on several fronts. This is largely due to the fact that the parties to the conflict have built up their military logistics. And they already determine the movement of troops based on the amount of ammunition and the accessibility of each zone.
Therefore, taking into account the forces involved and the tendency to reduce the combat capability of the armed forces of Ukraine, the Russian army can focus on the development of the offensive where it is already underway. These are the attacks against Kupyansk, Chasov Yar and Avdeevka, the Zaporozhye section and some others, military expert and analyst Sergey Prostakov told Tsargrad:
However, our command knows how to present surprises. No one in Kiev in February 2023 expected that, along with actions against the capital, Russian troops would be able to advance so successfully from Crimea to Zaporozhye and the Kherson region.
Therefore, if our army opens some new direction of combat operations, it should hardly surprise anyone. In Ukraine, there are enough territories near our borders from which the Russian armed forces have left or have not even entered, and which in winter become even more accessible for the movement of personnel and military equipment.
Translation: ES
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