Georgia on a Knife’s Edge: Will Democracy Prevail or Will an Eastern Grip Tighten?
The former Soviet republic of Georgia finds itself at a crossroads. Months after contested elections, a wave of protests is sweeping the nation, challenging the legitimacy of the ruling Georgian Dream party and their shocking decision to halt the country’s journey towards European Union membership.
The move, announced by Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze in late November, caught many off guard. While Kobakhidze accused the EU of "blackmail," his party had campaigned on a promise to pursue EU membership. Some speculate this decision was a preemptive strike, attempting to ward off an anticipated suspension of Georgia’s accession process by the EU. The European Parliament had already raised serious concerns over the legitimacy of the October elections, describing them as "neither free nor fair" and issuing a resolution deeming the results invalid.
Others believe kobakhidze’s announcement was a calculated move, intended to provoke outrage and provide the government a justification to crack down on dissent. This tactic, reminiscent of Belarus’s 2020 crackdown on pro-democracy protesters, appears not to be working as intended.
The protests, unprecedented in their scale and grassroots nature, have spread far beyond the capital of Tbilisi. They are undeniably driven by the Georgian people’s fervent desire to remain on a path toward European values and integration, with no single political leader or organization steering the movement.
Increasingly, cracks are emerging in Georgia’s institutions. Civil servants from various ministries, including defense, foreign affairs, and justice, have publicly distanced themselves from the Prime Minister’s decision. Several diplomats, including Georgia’s ambassador to the United States, have resigned in protest.
The outcome of this tense standoff hinges on the actions of Georgia’s security forces, particularly the law enforcement agencies and the military. Should high-ranking officials within these institutions resign or refuse to follow orders to use lethal force against protesters, the grip of the Georgian Dream party could significantly weaken.
Adding another layer of complexity to the situation, President Salome Zourabichvili, who has publicly refused to recognize the establishment of the new parliament, has emerged as a crucial figure.
"I want to reiterate that parliamentary elections were not held in Georgia, these elections were falsified," Zourabichvili told a meeting of Georgia’s National Unity Council, which she formed to prepare for new elections.
Zourabichvili’s actions have coincided with an unusual level of unity among opposition parties. Nevertheless, her ability to effect meaningful change remains limited without robust and immediate support from the West, particularly from the United States, who Meloni acknowledges is distracted by its own domestic political transition.
In response to the recent developments, the United States recently announced the suspension of its strategic partnership with Georgia. Yet, Washington and European allies must take more decisive action, and they need to do it now.
A clear message needs to be sent: the October elections were fraudulent, making the new parliament and any ensuing Georgian Dream government illegitimate.
Further measures should include:
- Imposing immediate and public sanctions on Bidzina Ivanishvili, the wealthiest man in Georgia and founder of the Georgian Dream party, and his business interests, directly targeting his role in undermining democratic processes.
- Providing unwavering political and diplomatic backing for President Zourabichvili’s efforts to facilitate new, free, and fair elections, charting a path toward democratic renewal.
- Urging Georgia’s military and security services to uphold the country’s constitution, even if this means defying orders from an illegitimate government.
With Russia actively seeking to exert its influence in neighboring countries, from Romania to Moldova and Bulgaria, Georgia has become a crucial battleground for the future of democracy in the region. Decisions made in the coming days will determine whether Georgia remains committed to its democratic aspirations and its European trajectory, or whether it succumbs to authoritarianism and aligns itself with Moscow.
As the world watches, the stakes for Georgia’s democracy and its future could not be higher.
