Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah is dead. This is a very important moment, not only for this conflict but also for the future of the Middle East, according to a Sky News analysis.
In 2006, in the last Lebanon war, Israel tried and failed to kill him. Last night, in a massive series of strikes in southern Beirut, they finally achieved their goal.
Over the past 18 years, Hassan Nasrallah has grown Hezbollah, expanding its forces, building its infrastructure and greatly enhancing its arsenal. He was not just the leader of Hezbollah, he was a global figure of the anti-Israel resistance.
With Iran’s help, Hezbollah has become one of the best-equipped non-state armies in the world. She is now decapitated and decaying.
The intelligence successes of recent days have helped restore Israel’s reputation after the October 7 failures.
Iran and Hezbollah must choose
Iran and Hezbollah must now decide how to react: fight or retreat.
It is not yet clear who else died in the strike, but given the location and the presence of top officials, it seems likely that other senior officials would have been killed.
Nasrallah will be replaced. Killing enemy leaders can prove to be a short-term victory because they are often succeeded by someone more formidable than before, as evidenced by the assassination of former Hezbollah leader Abbas al-Moussawi in 1992.
He was succeeded by Nasrallah. The working hypothesis is that the organization will respond with a barrage of rockets toward Israel, possibly targeting Tel Aviv.
But Hezbollah’s command structure has been severely degraded by Israel.
Nasrallah had been isolated as the IDF steadily killed commanders during a fortnight of heavy airstrikes on his facilities in Beirut and elsewhere.
A response will likely take time to coordinate and will likely be Iranian-led.
Nasrallah may be dead, but Hezbollah is not
Hezbollah is badly wounded, not only as a paramilitary force, but also in the eyes of the Lebanese people, many of whom are angry that their country is now facing another period of devastating violence.
This could be a moment for more moderate voices inside Lebanon, including the national armed forces, to step in.
As the war has escalated in recent weeks, notable differences have emerged between Tehran and Nasrallah.
He remained, however, an important ally, a trusted adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, and this will be a personal blow to him.
Having resisted the opportunity to get involved so far, Iran may decide it’s time to take off the gloves and deploy what’s left of the thousands of missiles it has supplied Hezbollah with.
Alternatively, after such a difficult 10 days, Tehran may conclude that this round of fighting must end and withdraw with its main proxy still in some condition to regroup and fight another day.
With such momentum behind Israel, Iran will also worry about its own fate and that of its smaller proxies in Iraq and Syria.
Ultimately, Hezbollah’s raison d’être – to act as a safeguard against an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities – has not changed, but if Tehran figures its proxies can no longer act as that shield it may try to accelerate its nuclear program.
Could a ground invasion follow?
The Israeli government has its own choices: order a ground invasion of southern Lebanon or continue the airstrikes that have brought such dramatic success.
There will be strong and compelling voices in Netanyahu’s cabinet urging him to take advantage of the situation and send in troops, but Hezbollah has not been defeated, thousands of its soldiers remain and are probably hiding in the vast network of tunnels under the hills on the other side of the borders.
Even a limited ground invasion carries the risk of great loss of life, on both sides, and the potential for Israel to be drawn into something more protracted than intended.
Nasrallah’s death may change the dynamics in Gaza as well.
Cease-fire efforts in the hope that Hezbollah and Iran will go to war with Israel, drawing its enemy into a multi-front and unwinnable conflict.
That may still happen, but just as Nasrallah was isolated, so was Sinwar.
The much-hyped “unity of the arenas” has failed to come together.
The Middle East can often appear chaotic to outsiders, but there are unspoken rules that are generally recognized and followed by belligerents.
For years Hezbollah and Israel operated within the unwritten but understood parameters of a shadow war.
Then, eleven months ago, on October 8, Hezbollah attacked Israel in solidarity with Hamas.
Nasrallah linked Lebanon’s fate to Hamas, insisting that Hezbollah would only stop when the fighting in Gaza ended.
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