Reporter Han Yu
Recently, the price of gold has fluctuated violently, showing a trend of “twists and turns”. During the National Day holiday, the price of gold “dived” sharply. But just a few days later, the price of gold rebounded in a “V-shaped” manner and reached a high level again.
Specifically, taking the closing price of COMEX gold futures (continuous) as an example, international gold prices continued to fall rapidly from the end of September to the beginning of October. Wind data shows that on September 19, the COMEX gold futures price was reported at US$1,934.0 per ounce, and then fell, reaching a recent low on October 5, at US$1,816.5 per ounce, a drop of 6%. However, since October 5, the COMEX gold futures price has experienced a “V-shaped” rebound. As of October 13, it was reported at 1928.5 US dollars per ounce, once again standing at the “1900” mark, with an increase of approximately 6% during the period.
What is the reason for the sharp rise and fall in gold prices in such a short period of time? Liu Siyuan, chief analyst of Linkshow Finance, said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily that gold prices are mainly related to the economic policies of major global economies, gold spot demand, and international geopolitics. Recently, the above three factors have alternately affected gold prices. Resulting in a “V-shaped” inversion.
Before the National Day holiday, U.S. economic data exceeded market expectations, which led to a sharp increase in pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again. The rebound of the U.S. dollar index suppressed the correction of gold prices. After the National Day holiday, a new round of conflict between Palestine and Israel triggered market panic, and the price of gold soared. During this period, central banks of various countries purchased gold, which also pushed up gold prices in terms of spot demand.
“Affected by the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the safe-haven value of gold has become prominent.” Weng Zichi, senior investment adviser at Jufeng Investment Consulting, also analyzed to reporters that the recent fluctuations in gold prices have intensified and have been repeatedly disrupted by changes in expectations for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
Yang Haiping, a researcher at the Securities and Futures Research Institute of the Central University of Finance and Economics and general manager of the Research and Development Department of the Bank of Inner Mongolia, told reporters that judging from the changes in gold prices from late September to the present, the surge in the U.S. dollar index and U.S. bond yields were key factors in the decline in gold prices during the period, while avoidance Risk sentiment is the main driver of the recent rise in gold prices.
The recent trend of domestic gold prices is relatively similar to that of international gold prices. Taking the basic gold price in China as an example, Wind data shows that on September 15, the basic gold price hit the highest point of the year at 479.1 yuan/g. From mid-September to September 26, the basic gold price was still fluctuating at the level of 473 yuan/g. However, from September 26 to October 3, the basic gold price plunged sharply. The price of 440 yuan/gram on October 3 was the lowest point of this round, and it fell by more than 8% during the period. Starting from October 3, the basic gold price also experienced a “V-shaped” rebound and continued to strengthen. As of October 15, it was reported at 464.5 yuan/gram, an increase of more than 5% during the period.
The price of branded gold jewelry is also on a “roller coaster”. Take the price of Chow Tai Fook gold as an example. According to data from Jintou.com, the gold price of Chow Tai Fook jewelry reached a maximum of 615 yuan/gram in late September, and dropped to a minimum of 583 yuan/gram during the National Day holiday. The price dropped by more than 30 yuan per gram, but has since rebounded. As of October 15, it once again stood at the 600 yuan/gram mark, quoted at 602 yuan/gram.
With gold prices fluctuating so drastically, experts interviewed generally reminded investors to pay attention to risk prevention.
Wang Peng, an associate researcher at the Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, said that when investing in gold, investors should formulate scientific investment strategies, maintain a good investment mentality, appropriately diversify investments, and pay attention to risk management. It is recommended to pay attention to market risks, liquidity risks, custody risks, exchange rate fluctuation risks, etc. It is necessary to pay attention to factors affecting gold prices such as the international economic situation, exchange rate fluctuations, and international geopolitical risks.
“The price of the gold market fluctuates greatly, and investors need to have sufficient risk tolerance.” Yu Xiaoming, senior investment consultant at Jufeng Investment Consulting, also told reporters that gold is a financial asset and may be liquid like other investment assets. sexual risks. During times of market turmoil, trading in gold may be affected. Also, don’t invest too much money in a single asset.
Xie Xiaowen, a special researcher at the E-Commerce Research Center, also said that the liquidity of the gold market is relatively low, especially in certain special circumstances, and it is recommended that investors choose gold investment tools with good market liquidity, such as gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs). ) to reduce liquidity risk.
“Beware of technical corrections during gold’s rebound.” Liu Siyuan also reminded that as the international gold price approaches US$2,000 per ounce, it will encounter selling pressure caused by medium- and long-term holders making profits and leaving the market. Investors can pay attention to the callbacks to buy. Chance.
(Editor: Wen Jing)
2023-10-16 01:02:32
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