Preparing to step down as chancellor, Angela Merkel made a gross mistake – effectively depriving her party of the chance to stay in power. Yes, the election campaign in Germany ends really sensationally – three weeks before the elections, the HDZ-HSS quickly lost its place as the first party in the country, writes Pyotr Akopov.
The current campaign as a whole brought many surprises – the ratings of most parties either rose sharply or fell just as fast. But now the ultimate trends that cannot be seriously reversed have become clear: the Germans do not want to see as the new chancellor the one whom Merkel has chosen as her successor.
The majority of voters prefer Olaf Scholz and his Social Democratic Party. He will almost certainly become the new chancellor – the only question is which coalition he will lead.
Moreover, Scholz will be largely indebted to Merkel for her victory – if it were not for her stubbornness, the mere fatigue of the Germans in the 16-year rule of the Christian Democrats would not be enough for the victory of their junior SPD coalition partners. It was not only she who could not choose a worthy successor – she did everything to ensure that the HDZ-HSS would not have a strong candidate for chancellor.
Initially, soon after the last election, she decided to transfer everything to Annegret Kramp-Karenbauer – which made her head of the CDU with a view to the chancellery after the elections in 2021. But the former defense minister very quickly disappointed everyone – and they began to looking for a replacement.
There were charismatic figures in the party, such as the former leader of the faction in the Bundestag, Friedrich Merz, who in 2002 was forced to cede his post to Angela Merkel, who then led the HDZ. Merz left politics for many years – but three years ago he decided to return to replace Merkel.
However, he had no right to lead the party. He lost twice by a small margin: first in 2018 by Kramp-Karenbauer, and in January this year by Armin Laschet, Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia. It was Laschet who bet on Merkel to prevent the party from coming under the control of “external” and “foreign” Merz.
However, Merkel’s second choice turned out to be as unconvincing as Annegret and eventually drowned his own party. Although it would be fairer to say that Merkel herself drowned the HDZ, because it was she who, through honest or not so honest grips, pushed her protégés.
Lashet’s unpopularity was obvious from the start – but even after taking over the party, the HDZ had a chance to stay in power. It was simply necessary to nominate Marcus Söder, the leader of the “younger sister”, the Bavarian HSS, as a candidate for chancellor. He was much more popular – but also independent of Merkel. Not surprisingly, Angela did her best to prevent his nomination.
And what is the end result? Of course, Germans vote officially for parties, not candidates for chancellor – but Merkel has clearly underestimated the role of the individual in history. Lashet’s ugliness repelled HDZ-HSS voters – the latest polls give the party 20 percent.
This is the lowest result in its history, especially compared to the 38% that the HDZ-HSS had in April last year, at the beginning of the quarantine due to the pandemic. Of course, the party’s popularity was influenced not only by Lashet’s weakness, but it turned out to be the fatal factor that actually condemned the HDZ-HSS to switch to the opposition.
Yes, everything goes there. Although all three candidates for chancellor are uncharismatic, the Germans do not like Laschet so much that, after torturing themselves, they chose Olaf Scholz. As for choosing the best of the worst – an additional plus for Scholz is that in addition to the Minister of Finance, he is also Deputy Chancellor, that is, a deputy to Merkel herself. There is a kind of continuity here.
If there was a direct election of a chancellor, 43 percent would vote for him – against 16 for Lashet. The third candidate, the “green” Analena Burbock, would score only 12: the short spring take-off, when the prospects for her chancellor’s post were even seriously discussed, gave way to a deep summer fall. Along with it, the rating of the Greens is generally falling – from the spring 28 percent, the autumn 16 percent remained.
And the SPD has risen from the last 16 percent to 25 percent – and could add to the election itself. So Scholz will become chancellor? Yes, and he has two options for that.
The third option, when he does not become chancellor, becomes less and less realistic with each passing day. This is a variant of the so-called Jamaica, ie a coalition with the colors of the Caribbean flag: the HDZ-HSS, the Greens and the Liberals of the Free Democratic Party.
Jamaica was long considered an almost predestined result of this election. But now, amid a drop in the ratings of both the HDZ-HSS and the Greens, the chances of forming this coalition are diminishing.
Now all three parties – including the FDP – together win 49%. Yes, the share of those parties that will not overcome the 5% barrier will also go to them, ie they will have more than half of the deputies in the Bundestag.
After the last election in 2017, Merkel tried to create “Jamaica” for several months – and all to no avail. But then her return to the grand coalition, that is, in alliance with the SPD, helped her – the Social Democrats really did not want to remain in an unequal marriage.
But now there will be no such opportunity. It is almost impossible to imagine an option in which the SPD, after winning the election, would take the Christian Democrats as its junior partner. And who are they now – without the popular Merkel, but with the unpopular Lashet?
The Social Democrats are now drawing the lucky ticket – as they have coexisted with Merkel’s party for many years (and they have been in the ruling coalition for 12 of 16 years), they have almost become a second-tier party.
From the “people’s” party, Germany’s oldest party collapsed to a humiliating 15 percent for it – and Merkel seemed to have drunk all the blood from it. of the SPD to take power – and it would be very strange if after September 26 it does not implement it.
Olaf Scholz will have two options. He can lead a traffic light coalition named after the SPD (red), the FDP (yellow) and the Greens. This option now seems the most realistic, but there is also a version of a purely left-wing coalition – when instead of the FDP, the “Left” will take third place.
The Left, the successor to the GESP, the GDR’s ruling party, won more than nine percent in the last election, but now one and a half times fewer voters are willing to vote for them.
In the eastern lands, that is, in the former GDR, the “fortress” of the “Left”, they have long been pressed by the Alternative for Germany (in these elections it will maintain or even improve its previous result of 12 percent). But the AfD is openly anti-systemic, so all other parties are not even allowed to think of a coalition with it at any level.
The “left” has long been in power at the provincial level. Including in Berlin – where he runs a coalition of SPD, Greens and Left.
Now, in theory, the same possibility could arise at the federal level – which would be a major change on the left for all German politics.
But the chances of its formation are slim – the Left will be required to renounce rejection of NATO, nationalization and other “radicalisms”: but accepting such demands will end the party.
So the easiest thing for Olaf Scholz would be to become chancellor from the traffic light coalition – two left-wing parties (the Greens are generally formed by secession from the SPD) and one liberal party. Yes, of course, they are all conditionally leftists, but they are Atlantic comrades, systemic parties.
Not some radical and almost extremist (for the German elite) “Alternative for Germany”, which in this case will be forced to cede its seat in the Bundestag to the main opposition party of the HDZ-HSS. That is, Merkel’s former party – which now, when she left, because of her stubbornness remains out of power.
By the way, it will not be easy for Merkel to leave – if negotiations on a new coalition slow down (and most likely will), she will still serve as chancellor for several months after the election. During which, however, she will no longer be able to correct her mistake.
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