Because it only has two sides: heads and tails. When a coin is tossed, it must come out on one side with an equal chance, but in reality this is not the case.
There has been a serious study of this matter and it has been found that it is not a 50-50 chance as was previously understood. One side is more likely to tip over than the other. The question is why? And which side has a greater chance of coming out?
In English there is the word “fair coin” This means two sides of a coin which have an equal chance of turning up. In academic statistics, it is an idealistic coin that shows the meaning of the word “Possibility” The easiest
That is, it has 2 possible characteristics: “heads” or “tails,” but it can only face up on one side. Therefore, the chance of getting “heads” or “tails” is 1 in 2, or a probability equal to 50. % or 0.5
Ideological CoinThis must be a coin that no one has made particularly heavy on one side. Until there is a greater chance of turning over on that side. Simply put, the possibility of turning over is no longer 50-50. This is called an unfair coin.
Statistics subject “Magic Coin” Like this in a simple explanation of possibility. And it is understood that various coins that has no special weight When the actual toss is made, it will be 50-50, meaning both tails and heads have equal probability.
However, there ismathematicianMore than 200 years ago, I wondered if it was really 50-50 in the real world, that is, was there one side that turned out more often than the other? To prove this, a coin would have to be tossed tens of thousands of times. If thrown only a hundred or a thousand times The results of the study will not be accurate and will not be accepted.
In the past, there have been statistics on tossing a coin to see if the frequency of both tails and heads turning up is the same or not. But the highest recorded time was only 40,000 times. Scientific American magazine (January 2024 issue) states that recently someone has performed a coin toss hundreds of thousands of times and has had amazing results.
František Bartoš, a PhD student in psychology research methods at The University of Amsterdam, used 47 volunteers from six countries to toss coins over several weekends. And at one point it took 12 hours straight, for a total of 350,757 coin flips.
It was found that the coin will come out with the same face that was flipped up before tossing 50.8% of the total times tossed. By testing hundreds of thousands of tosses like this, it can be statistically concluded that nearly 1% of the bias is definitely not due to chance.
This result means that even though it is a fair coin, it does not give a 50-50 result of tossing the coin or that both sides have the same chance of turning over, i.e. 50%. The side that has a higher chance of turning over, even though it is only almost 1%, is Side that faces up before throwing
Anyone who knows this truth will have even a slight advantage when it comes to choosing sides of the coin. Choose the side that faces up before throwing. If you are the desired directorFairnessTo prevent anyone from having an advantage over others, the side of the coin must be hidden from view before tossing.
The question is, why isn’t it 50-50 as was believed for a long time? One interesting answer came from a 2007 physics study at Stanford University by statistician Persi Diaconis. His physics calculations also predicted that Tossing a coin is not 50-50. If one side tends to win 51%.
The explanation is that when a coin is flipped into the air the usual way is to place the coin on the index finger. And use your thumb to bounce and float up. The trajectory of the coin rises with the rotating coin. Can be calculated as well.laws of mechanicswhether it will be heads or tails
The researcher explains that the coin that floats upwards does not rotate along the symmetrical axis and tends to vibrate away from the center.
This is the reason why the side faces up before throwing. It has a slightly longer time to stay face up in the air. Until causing the fruit to lean towards this side that will eventually face up.
The conclusion is that the results from the actual experiment and the results from the physics calculations are the same, not 50-50, with a slight bias to one side, about 1%, and the advantageous side is the side that faces up before throwing.
for pedestrians The explanation for not being 50-50 is that coins are naturally symmetrical on both sides. Including manufacturing or wear and tear from use, one side may be more likely to tip over than the other.
In addition, the throwing style, such as spinning on a smooth surface or Flipping or tossing a coin up or down can have a special effect on which side it lands on. And the hard or soft surface that supports falling coins can also have a specific effect on which side it lands on.
New knowledge in this matter has created doubts in many matters. Like they say, carry lemons with you and snakes won’t bite. Lemon treats and prevents all types of cancer. Drinking alcohol in moderation is good for your health. Pork fat is good for health, etc.
This 50-50 story reminds us of “Kalam Sutta” which Somdej Phra Buddhakosajarn (P.A. Payutto) said: “…..The Buddha taught not to believe in unreasonable superstitions according to 10 principles:
Don’t make up your mind to believe it by listening to it, by following it from generation to generation, by telling rumours, by referring to textbooks or scriptures, by logic, by making inferences, by thinking along the lines of reason, because it is compatible with the theory. of himself, because he saw a convincing appearance, because he respected this monk as our teacher…”
#Tossing #coin #headstails #Warakorn #Samkoset
2024-03-12 01:24:00
