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The “gender gap” is expected to play a key role in the 2024 presidential election. Early voting data shows female voter turnout has exceeded that of male voters, sparking concerns within the Trump campaign.
An ABC News/Ipsos poll released on Sunday found that Harris led Trump by 11 points among female voters, 53% to 42%, while Trump led 50% to 45% among male voters. The rate is 5 percentage points ahead of He Jinli.
The result echoes history. Since 1996, the “gender gap” in exit polls in presidential elections has averaged 19 percentage points.
Some observers believe the gap could reach new highs in 2024. Longtime Republican pollster Whit Ayres told ABC News: “Because this race is women versus men and the issue of abortion became prominent after the Dobbs decision, we’re probably going to be The largest gender gap in history, even close to the gender divide.”
Harris’ secret to victory is to win enough female support to make up for the loss of male voters. Trump is exactly the opposite.
Since the Supreme Court overturned the landmark Roe v. Wade case in 1973 in 2022, the issue of abortion has been a focus of attention in American politics. Harris has made reproductive freedom a centerpiece of her presidential campaign. In recent weeks, she has held rallies in Texas with pop star Beyoncé to rally support for abortion rights, visited a clinic in Michigan and sent high-profile surrogates including Michelle Obama to speak about Roe v. Wade Impact on women’s health after being overturned.
The ABC News/Ipsos poll found that Harris had an overwhelming advantage among women aged 19 to 29, with a 40-point lead over Trump, while Trump led by 5 points among men in the same age group. percentage points.
Harris’ campaign has also sought to reach out broadly to men, including African-American men, with her economic proposals. Polls earlier this fall showed Harris’ support among African-American men was declining, below President Joe Biden’s support among that group, but Harris appears to have regained lost ground. In the final ABC News/Ipsos poll, 76% of African-American men and 87% of African-American women supported Harris.
Trump, meanwhile, has been focused on pushing men to vote, especially young and apolitical men who turn out at lower rates than other groups.
White men and women have long been one of the most powerful groups of voters in the Republican Party. According to the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll, Trump leads by 13 points among white men and by about 30 points among white men and women without a college education. Although he also leads among white women, the largest voting group in the United States, the advantage is only 4 percentage points. In 2020, Trump’s approval rating advantage among this group is 11 percentage points.
Trump has also stepped up efforts to win over Hispanic voters, a group that itself has significant gender disparities. The latest poll shows that Harris’s average support rate among this group is 55%, while Trump’s support rate is 41%. According to 2020 exit polls, Biden’s support advantage among this group in 2020 was 33 percentage points.
More than 75 million Americans have voted early, according to the University of Florida Elections Laboratory. The data shows that as of Sunday, women’s turnout in early voting exceeded that of men, with 54% compared to 43.6% of men. This is consistent with past elections.
A Philadelphia Inquirer analysis last week showed that in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania, 56% of early mail-in ballots were cast by women and 43% by men.
The Trump campaign is keeping a close eye on female voter turnout, which so far has outpaced that of male voters. Considering Trump’s base is heavily skewed toward men, this could be a worrying development.
Trump ally and conservative Charlie Kirk wrote on
A Trump adviser said they hope recent outreach among women through town hall events and female representatives in battleground states will pay off.
But, the adviser added, they ultimately need the young people they’ve been winning over to show up on Election Day.
