The True Size of Myanmar’s Military: How Analysts’ Assessments Have Been Inflated and Why the Military is Weakening

The post-coup military strength of Myanmar’s Sit-Tat has been a subject of much speculation, with analysts relying on inflated pre-coup troop levels for estimates. However, extensive research including interviews with military deserters and defectors, analysis of military directives and meeting notes, troop movement records, and casualty counts from various sources indicate that the current troop strength is around 150,000, with only around 70,000 being combat soldiers. The military has lost at least 21,000 service members through casualties, desertion and defection since the coup, making it barely able to sustain itself as a fighting force, let alone as a government. It is no longer reasonable to assume that the Sit-Tat will overcome the resistance movement and consolidate its rules. The post-coup rebellion exacerbates the shortfall in combat forces, and even the strongest of Myanmar’s combat forces, the Light Infantry Divisions, are seriously under-strength. Casualties, defections, and desertions are weakening the military, with thousands of military personnel, including mid-ranking officers, defecting or deserting to the resistance. Recruitment has also slowed considerably, with areas previously the primary sources of Sit-Tat recruits now at the center of the resistance due to junta atrocities. Thus, it is crucial for the international community to stop engaging with the junta as if it is bound to win and the only relevant player in achieving stability, as that only bolsters the generals’ delusion and delays the time until the junta comes to the table.