The trinity alliance of “Wagner”, “Rapid Support” and Haftar’s army prolongs the war in Sudan

Rashid Khashana – Nothing guarantees that the sparks of the fire raging in Sudan will not reach Libya and disrupt all political paths, including the departure of foreign forces.

Two American and French military delegations rushed to Libya, on two separate visits, to follow the development of the military situation in Sudan and assess its repercussions on the countries of the entire region. Libya is currently considered the best place to monitor what is happening in Sudan, especially in light of the possible movements of Libyan militias supporting the Rapid Support Forces with fuel and men, from the Libyan-Chadian border. The two military delegations also discussed setting a time plan for foreign forces to leave Libya and combating smuggling across its southern borders. The third file that was discussed related to the formation of a joint Libyan military force, from the eastern and western regions, with the support of the chiefs of staff in the two regions. According to French sources, convoys loaded with gasoline and weapons moved towards the Libyan border with Sudan. These movements confirm the existence of contact between the militias and the Rapid Support Forces led by Hemedti, who are stable in the Libyan city of Kufra, located close to the Sudan-Libya-Chad border triangle.
Such movements raise concerns among Western governments, because the Libyan regular army does not control this region, where smuggling gangs and terrorist groups thrive unchecked. These networks are considered stronger than the Libyan army, which has limited capabilities and lacks smart border monitoring technology. In this context, The Observer newspaper, affiliated with the British newspaper The Guardian, confirmed that the military commander of the Eastern Region, retired Major General Khalifa Haftar, is working to hide about ten thousand barrels of oil per day, from a government company, with the aim of refining it in the Libyan “Sarir Refinery”. With high quality, then transported overland to Sudan across the border, for the benefit of the Rapid Support Forces. As for the American newspaper, The Washington Post, it reported that the Rapid Support Forces received about 30 fuel tankers and at least a shipment of military supplies from one of Haftar’s sons. The newspaper explained that it obtained this information from Libyan officials and diplomats. This support is not surprising, given the strong alliance between the “Wagner” trinity, the “Rapid Support” and Haftar’s army. Hemedti had sent his forces to Libya to fight alongside Haftar’s forces, during the failed attack on Tripoli in 2019. Wagner and Rapid Support also carried out live ammunition training in Libya during the years 2021 and 2022. At the regional level, the divergence of positions on the conflict in Sudan, between Haftar, who supports Hemedti, on the one hand, and the Egyptian government, which supports the military establishment, on the other hand, is causing the largest crisis in relations between the two parties, which will have important repercussions and consequences, not only on the bilateral level, But also on the future of relations between all parties to the conflict.
Perhaps this is what prompted Washington to send Ambassador Norland, its special envoy to Libya, to Chad, to try to control matters on the common border with Libya, to ensure that terrorist elements do not infiltrate among the displaced people outside Sudan, fleeing the flames of battles. At the same time, US President Joe Biden asked both sides to end the fighting, hinting at “imposing new sanctions on those responsible for the bloodshed.”
But what is striking is that the foreign delegations that come to Libya to try to bring the parties together are no longer limited to diplomats and politicians, but rather include military personnel as well, perhaps due to overlapping issues. It was noted that a delegation from the US Department of Defense headed by Colonel Mark Emplom, the US Defense Attaché to Libya, recently visited Tripoli and met with the Chief of the General Staff of the Government of National Unity, Lieutenant General Muhammad Al-Haddad, at the headquarters of the General Staff in Tripoli. It is likely that the meeting touched on the civil war in Sudan and the rapid expansion of Russian “Wagner” elements on the African continent, in addition to the progress achieved by the work of the 5+5 Military Committee. Although the two sides did not announce the content of the talks that took place between the two parties, it is known that America is seeking to remove Russia from the positions it has seized in Africa, or at least to encircle it and limit its spread on the continent. But the joint press statement limited itself to talking about the Americans’ contribution to “training and developing the Libyan army.”
It can be said that the progress recorded in the recent meetings of the 5+5 Military Committee in Tunisia, Benghazi and Tripoli is what motivated the French to call for a Libyan-Libyan security summit in Paris, the timing of which has not yet been determined. According to French media sources, the French President’s advisor on Libyan affairs, Paul Soler, is in charge of preparing the Libyan security summit, which will bring together security leaders from the east and west of the country. Libyans are seeking to obtain smart border technology for use at the crossings, in addition to keeping up with the latest surveillance technologies, within the framework of integrated border management. European officials do not miss an opportunity to warn of the repercussions of the Libyan border guards’ lack of equipment necessary to monitor the land borders, as the head of the border management unit of the European Border Assistance Mission in Libya, Louis Puig, confirmed that the Libyan border guards cannot fully secure the land borders, due to their lack For appropriate equipment and adequate personnel to secure it.

A third French attempt

UN envoy Abdullah Batili is expected to attend the Paris meeting, along with the Supreme Commander of the Libyan Army, a position shared by the President of the Presidential Council, Mohamed Al-Menfi, and his two deputies, Abdullah Al-Lafi and Musa Al-Koni. But it is unlikely that the three will attend the upcoming meeting in Paris simultaneously. It is also expected that the Chief of General Staff, Lieutenant General Muhammad al-Haddad, loyal to the unity government, and the Chief of Staff in the Eastern Region, Lieutenant General Abdel Razzaq al-Nadhuri, who supports Khalifa Haftar, will be present, in addition to members of the 5+5 Joint Military Committee. The French confirm that these efforts made at the security level aim to ensure stability, before the elections scheduled to be held at the end of this year. The current French efforts indicate Paris’s desire to return to the Libyan arena, after its efforts to bring the two sides of the conflict to the dialogue table, in order to reach a political agreement, failed.
But the most painful development for the French was that they were forced to withdraw their forces from the Sahel and Sahara region, where Paris was extending its control over its former colonies in West Africa, and then ending the “Barkhane” operation that began in 2013. The Libyan military leaders are seeking, in their meeting scheduled to be held in Sebha (South) to unify positions, before going to the Paris meeting, which, if actually held, will discuss unifying the military institution and forming a joint force for the first time, in addition to the evacuation of mercenaries and foreign forces from Libyan territory. By establishing this force, the United Nations aims to verify the departure of foreign forces, including Russians, Turks, Sudanese, Chadians, and Syrians, from Libya, in addition to combating smuggling across the country’s southern borders.

Decline of military and cultural influence

This French initiative is considered the third undertaken by President Emmanuel Macron to bring together the Libyan parties, and his last attempt was on May 29, 2018, when the four leaders called Al-Sarraj, Haftar, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aguila Saleh, and the President of the Presidential Council, Khaled Al-Mishri, to a four-way summit in the French capital, which did not… She achieves the goals that were expected of her. France is seeking to preserve its remaining allies in the region, after losing much of its political, military and cultural influence, in light of campaigns focused on its historical strongholds in West Africa. However, the call to hold a military meeting in Paris does not seem to have the consensus of the Libyan military leadership, as Mustafa Yahya, a member of the “5+5” committee for the western region, denied that there were efforts to hold such a meeting in France, stressing in statements reported by the “Libya Al-Mustaqbal” portal that The Joint Military Committee “prefers to hold all its meetings inside Libya.” However, Paris affirms that it “intends to play a positive role in the stability of Libya” by seeking to find a political solution, which ends with the holding of simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections, based on a consensual constitutional framework.
On the other hand, it is noted that the American delegation’s visit to Tripoli coincided with the visit of a French military delegation to Benghazi, where it met with Lieutenant General Abdul Razzaq Al-Nadhouri, Chief of Staff of the forces loyal to Khalifa Haftar, which control the eastern region. The visit confirms Paris’s clear bias toward one of the two sides of the conflict, and this is not a new matter, as French weapons have been found several times in combat zones, in addition to the flight of French military experts to Tunisia, from the Gharyan region (northwest) when government forces took control of it. France partners with Egypt in supporting Haftar politically and militarily, but this time the Egyptian position was characterized by much concern, due to the repercussions of the ongoing war in Sudan, which explains the mission of the Egyptian security delegation that recently visited Libya and met with Khalifa Haftar, Cairo’s most important ally in Libya. It is likely that the delegation came to warn Haftar against providing assistance to the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Hemedti, or to Wagner members. However, Haftar denied responsibility for any support provided by the Wagner Group to Hemedti, denying that he had any jurisdiction over fighters affiliated with the Russian company in Libya.
All that can be said is that making progress in forming the proposed joint force may help ensure stability, in preparation for the elections, which are scheduled to be held before the end of this year, as planned in the road map of the UN envoy Abdullah Batili. But nothing guarantees that the sparks of the fire raging in Sudan will not reach Libya and disrupt all political paths, including the departure of foreign forces.

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