by Lorenzo Pallavicini –
The trial against Milorad Dodik, the president of the Republic of Srpska, has begun in Sarajevo, accused of not respecting the decisions of the UN High Representative in Bosnia, de facto the highest authority in the country, a role deriving from the historic Dayton agreements of 1995 and who saw in this figure, foreign to the local ethnic groups, the possibility of a mediating authority between factions that still struggle to share the governance of the country.
Dodik had promulgated two laws last summer that were approved by the local parliament and annulled by the High Representative, the German Schmidt, who was also opposed by the Russians at the UN Security Council. The laws stipulated that the rulings of the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the decisions of the High Representative would not be applied in the Serbian entity.
These measures were canceled and a new crime was introduced into the Bosnian penal code by Schmidt, that of failure to comply with the decisions of the High Representative, an ad hoc law which allowed the Sarajevo prosecutor’s office to bring Dodik to trial.
This trial on the Serbian side is seen as yet another in a long series that began when the international criminal tribunal for the former Yugoslavia was established through resolution 827 of the UN Security Council.
This institution has never been seen as impartial by the Bosnian Serbs, having clearly condemned all the defendants on the Serbian side while instead some excellent Croatian or Bosnian defendants were acquitted, including elements such as General Ante Gotovina, involved in the Oluja operation which in 1995 saw the forced expulsion of the Croatian Serbs from the Croatian Republic, an exodus of over 200,000 people and in which there were episodes of ethnic cleansing against the Serbs.
The precedents in the courts show a sort of prejudice on the part of the Bosnian Serbs in allowing themselves to be judged by the Sarajevo court. Dodik himself has made it clear that he does not recognize this authority, thus fueling further tensions in the country.
With the lights off, a very inconvenient actor for Western interests in Bosnia could enter: the Russian Federation. The ties between Dodik and the Russians have long been very close, and even in moments of greatest Western pressure the Bosnian Serb leader has always vetoed possible sanctions against Russia, not missing an opportunity to recall the historic bond between Serbs and Russians, in beard every community recommendation.
Since the start of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the European Union has been moving more forcefully toward the goal of bringing all of the Balkans, including Bosnia, into the Union, a move that could greatly reduce the Kremlin’s influence. throughout the area.
However, the ancient mistrust and resentment of the Bosnian Serb side towards NATO and the West, which supported the Croatian Muslim faction during the Balkan wars of the 1990s, may be a difficult obstacle to overcome. The very close link with the Putin regime appears difficult to reconcile with Bosnia’s future entry into an EU that tries as much as possible to break ties with the Russian Federation and in which there can be no room for new “Trojan horses” sympathetic to the Kremlin.
The trial, regardless of the outcome, could mark a further separation between the two entities of Bosnia and put at risk the recognized authority of the High Representative, both in the case of acquittal, which would be contested by Bosnian Muslims, and in the case of guilt. and Dodik’s imprisonment, with the Serbs perhaps ready for something more than the protest demonstrations that have taken place in the country in recent weeks, if there was possible background support from Moscow.
