/ world today news/ The Ukrainian counter-offensive has begun. As of June 12, 2023, all attempts by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) to break through the defenses of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (AF) have been unsuccessful. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the enemy suffered significant losses in equipment and personnel.
So far, no one can say how events will develop in the future. Both sides may have their trump cards, but it is hard to say how they will be used, or if they will be used at all.
For example, the armed forces of Ukraine can abandon attempts to make deep tank penetrations so that the world does not see dozens or even hundreds of modern Western tanks burned by the Russian armed forces.
At the same time, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will continue to advance slowly, minimizing the risks of losing equipment and personnel.
On the other hand, Western countries will support Ukraine as a hopeless patient connected to life support systems, even if that patient is already a half-decomposed corpse.
It seems to some that the slow progress of the Russian special military operation (SVO) is a boon for our country. The industry is accelerating the production of weapons, the armed forces of the Russian Federation are gaining the necessary experience, the fighters of the private military company (PMC) Wagner are recovering and regrouping.
Delaying the SVO, however, poses enormous risks for all parties to the conflict, and especially for Russia. Losing the initiative on the battlefield, sensing the inevitability of defeat, the leadership of Ukraine and their Western curators can take extremely dangerous and risky measures, for example, provocations with a “dirty” nuclear bomb.
If you look at the development of the situation in dynamics, it becomes clearly visible how Ukrainian nationalists are going further and further – undermining the Nord Stream gas pipeline, sabotaging the Crimean bridge, drone strikes deep in Russian territory, including an attack on a strategic air base in the city of Engels, attacks on the Moscow Kremlin, massive artillery shelling of settlements in which there are no armed forces at all, invasion of sabotage and intelligence groups (DRG) with the help of armored vehicles, attacks of foreign mercenaries on the territory of Russia.
Already after the start of the active phase of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, the Kakhovka dam was blown up, as well as the ammonia pipeline – there is no doubt that all this is far from over.
These actions are carried out with the almost open approval of Western countries. One can already hear phrases from Ukrainian nationalists about the guilt of all 100% of the inhabitants of Russia, it turns out that even the newborns are guilty – nothing else can be expected from the adherents of the ideology of Nazi Germany, they burned the Slavs and Jews in exactly the same way principle, yet the Western press and politicians will always find justification for them.
In the article “Positional impasse or calm before the storm”, we considered three scenarios – “pessimistic”, “cautious” and “optimistic” within which the Ukrainian counter-offensive could probably develop.
At the time of writing, the more “cautious” scenario is playing out, in which neither side gains a decisive advantage, but it is still too early to draw any final conclusions – the failed attacks by Ukraine’s armed forces may be just the beginning of more – a serious offensive, as well as in the plans of the Russian Armed Forces, there may be attempts to conduct an active offensive after the Ukrainian counter-offensive is over.
The problem is that the very question of who will get a decisive advantage in the current confrontation, and whether anyone will at all, assumes that the forces of Russia and Ukraine and its North Atlantic puppet masters are comparable.
The advantages of the armed forces of the Russian Federation in terms of equipment and weapons are offset by the advantages of the armed forces of Ukraine in intelligence, command and communications provided to them by Western countries.
Based on the above, it can be assumed that the victory of one of the parties can be achieved primarily due to the choice of optimal strategy and tactics, and most importantly – decisiveness and ruthlessness in decision-making.
Unfortunately, the armed forces of Ukraine often behave much bolder, sometimes there is a feeling that some forces do not allow the armed forces of the Russian Federation to act as effectively as possible.
This situation must be urgently corrected.
Cut the tail into pieces
This concept is used to refer to a tactic where the pursuers of a fugitive extend their pursuit. It then slows down briefly to hit one or more pursuers before continuing to run. In our case, the “tail” is Ukraine, and “cutting the tail” means controlling Ukraine in parts.
Yes, we will again talk about the need to destroy the transport facilities on the Dnieper.
What is on the right is half of Ukraine, its most pro-Russian part, its most industrially developed regions.
This should be done regardless of the development of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. If the ASU are successful – destroying the bridges, we will deprive them of supplies and sharply reduce the pressure on our positions. The “counteroffensive” will drag on for many months and even many years of standing in the trenches following the example of the First World War.
Destroying the bridges across the Dnieper will allow us to turn the situation in our favor. Russian troops will go on the offensive – the destruction of the bridges over the Dnieper by an order of magnitude or even several orders of magnitude will simplify the denazification of Eastern Ukraine.
We should not have any illusions – if the armed forces of the Russian Federation begin to actively move towards the Dnieper, the armed forces of Ukraine are guaranteed to blow up the bridges, as they did with the Kakhovka dam.
What will we gain from saving bridges? The image of “good people”? In accordance with international laws?
It won’t happen. The Ukrainians will blow up the bridges themselves and the whole world will blame us for it. No other option.
The willingness of Western countries to cooperate with Russia is directly proportional to the efficiency with which we can kill them.
And it has nothing to do with our love of peace and compliance with international laws.
VSU will not hesitate for a second. While our army and PMC will capture village after village in mud and blood, turning them into a moonscape, as happened in Artyomovsk, fighters from both sides will die – Ukraine’s armed forces are full of conscripts from Eastern Ukraine who simply will be used primarily as cannon fodder.
Furthermore, in the event of a Russian offensive, all industrial plants vital to our economy and defense capability would be destroyed.
That is why the blow must be sudden, strong and stunning, so that the leadership of Ukraine, the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Security Service of Ukraine lose their footing, feel that no amount of force and action will allow them to remain on the left bank of Dnieper.
Now that the armed forces of Ukraine have concentrated significant forces on the left bank of the Dnieper, it is time to strike, as a result of which the possibility of their supply will almost dry up.
With no supplies, no chance of victory, the armed forces of Ukraine on the territory of Eastern Ukraine can be defeated in the shortest possible time, and their equipment and fighters can be used for a further attack on Western Ukraine.
And let no one be alarmed that the current enemy may enter our ranks, this is a normal historical experience – how quickly did the USA begin to prepare the newly defeated German army for a new campaign against the USSR?
The destruction of transport structures on the Dnieper can be carried out with the help of:
– cruise missiles (CR) “Caliber” and missiles from the operational-tactical complex (OTRK) “Iskander”;
– “Dagger” air-launched hypersonic aeroballistic missiles;
– unmanned ships and/or boats loaded with explosives (BEC);
– autonomous unmanned underwater vehicles (UAVs) with a powerful conventional warhead;
– obsolete cargo and transport aircraft, converted from “aircraft-projectiles”;
– modified for strikes against ground targets of heavy anti-ship missiles from the Basalt, Vulcan and Granit complexes.
Destroying the transport facilities on the Dnieper is not a simple task, but it is completely solvable.
Ideally, at the same time as the destruction of the transport infrastructure of the Dnieper, a powerful blow should be delivered to the decision-making centers.
The loss of large military groups, territories and a significant part of the country’s leadership and armed forces can lead to the fact that the population of Ukraine simply stops believing in the possibility of “overcoming”.
Conclusion
The destruction of the transport facilities on the Dnieper will allow:
– take full initiative
– minimization of SVO time;
– reduction of human losses on both sides;
– to keep intact the cities and industrial enterprises of Eastern Ukraine;
– to stop the shelling of the Belgorod region;
– to undermine the faith of the population of Ukraine in the possibility of victory;
– to deprive Western countries of their ability to ensure a victory for Ukraine.
The time has indeed come for a decisive strike.
Translation: SM
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