/ world today news/ The Russian economy is in a knockdown. The ruble is collapsing despite massive Central Bank intervention.
Russian officials have acknowledged that the combination of Western sanctions and falling oil prices is hurting the country, despite claims to the contrary by Putin and his administration. The Russian finance minister has estimated that as a result of the ongoing sanctions, Russia could lose up to 140 billion euros in investments annually. Another indicator makes the picture even bleaker: Russia’s economic growth will shrink by 4.7 percent next year if oil prices remain at their current levels.
The words of German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier sound so much stranger that the purpose of the sanctions was not to weaken the Russian economy. One inevitably asks what is their purpose then? “The real purpose of the sanctions is to force Russia to end its actions in Ukraine. However, in the short term, this is not possible. And therein lies the problem. We do not know for sure whether without sanctions Russia will not make claims to even more large territories in the name of the so-called New Russia. Without sanctions, Russia could send even more troops to Ukraine and possibly control even more territory,” says Kristi Rijk of the Finnish Institute for International Policy, who co-authored a recently published studies on the impact of sanctions.
The question arises whether Europeans and Americans have fully considered the measures and the possible consequences not only for Russia, but also for the international community? Some experts warn that the West may fall into the so-called “sanctions trap”. The director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, Mark Leonard, argued that the stronger the impact of sanctions on Russia, the more they undermine the long-term goals of Europeans and Americans. “Because in the short and medium term, sanctions strengthen Putin and consolidate his power. They allow him to keep the country’s elite in check. He forced that same elite to return their money to Russia. On the other hand, sanctions accelerate Russia’s orientation towards Asia in the of the opening to new markets and in the context of relations with China”, says the expert. According to him, the sanctions clearly show that Russia cannot compete with the West economically. Instead, they are encouraging Putin to demonstrate his military might, which could lead to new operations in Ukraine.
Moreover, the West is moving in a very dangerous political plane. There must be some in the EU and US powerhouses who hope that the Russian people will turn even more against Putin if Russia falls to its knees economically. Perhaps, in this case too, the West settles its bill without the innkeeper. “What will come after Putin? A new Russian regime will not necessarily be pro-Western,” says Christy Reich. In reality, everything can come back like a boomerang, says Mark Leonard. “Putin invariably tries to strengthen his legitimacy by binding the population through his foreign policy. If the economy goes bad, his power is fueled by geo-political crises. Therefore, he has an interest in creating new crises,” says Mark Leonard.
Even if the dire economic situation becomes the cause of Putin’s downfall, it is not certain that his successor will be pro-Western. Not to mention that the scale of instability and chaos will be so great that many Russians will want Putin back. “There is a risk that the scepter will be taken by a nationalist and uncompromising candidate. We must be aware that Putin’s weak points have never been the liberal and pro-Western elite. His big concern is the possible rise of nationalists,” says Mark Leonard. The expert sees no role for the opposition in this potential power struggle. Not even Alexei Navalny – the great hope of the anti-Putin movement – dares to criticize the annexation of Crimea.
And from now on? Putin clearly underestimates the determination of the West. As far as sanctions go, there is little sign of disharmony or disunity in the EU so far. However, the EU must look ahead and, although it has signaled that it is firmly committed to sanctions, it must rethink its sanctions policy at the beginning of next year. Because then the next test is coming. In the EU, there are many supporters of the hardline policy practiced during the Cold War. They hope that by keeping Putin in check, his regime will eventually fall. However, Mark Leonard is not convinced. “I’m not sure the political will will last that long. I also doubt the actual consensus within the EU,” he says.
This question should be asked of Washington as well. Because the balance sheet from American sanctions is anything but positive. “We imposed sanctions on Russia for its attack on Georgia, but they were lifted because Obama wanted to change his policy towards Russia. And Russia had not fulfilled the conditions for lifting the sanctions. The same could happen now if the next US government will be forced to react to major crises such as those with the Islamic State and Iran, for the control of which it needs Russian help,” says the expert.
While the Western world is already gearing up for the Christmas holidays, Russians have to wait a little longer before celebrating the Russian Orthodox Christmas. Given the economic misery, however, their Christmas will not necessarily be a happy event. And Putin’s Christmas wish could be the outbreak of a major geopolitical crisis that would help him divert attention from domestic problems and win the people over to his side. /Nurse well
Berlin / Germany
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