The transition from internal combustion engines to electric cars could lead to the loss of 501,000 jobs in the production of automotive components in the European Union. This is the result of a study carried out by the consulting company PwC for the European Association of Suppliers of Automotive Components and Systems CLEPA.
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The creation of new job opportunities in the production of components for electric vehicles could only compensate for this loss by less than half. 226,000 new jobs could be created. A total of 275,000 jobs would be lost, the study said.
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A total of 1.7 million people are currently employed by car manufacturers in Europe and 1.2 million directly by cars. Another 1.2 million people are employed, for example, in the production of tires, batteries or electrical components, and 3.2 million people in support services, according to the study, the Automotive News website.
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“The study highlights the risks that the transition to electric cars poses to the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of people,” said CLEPA Secretary General Sigrid de Vries. She also pointed out that automotive component suppliers provide the majority of manufacturing jobs in the automotive industry.
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The turning point of 2035
The European Commission is proposing a total ban on the sale of internal combustion cars after 2035. According to the study, in such a case, the production of parts for these cars could disappear by 2040, if the changes proposed in the package called “Fit for 55” “.
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The study calculates three scenarios, two of which we see massive job losses. The only one in which the number of jobs is growing is the use of mixed technologies to power cars. This would reduce CO2 emissions from the current 95 to 20 grams of CO2 / km in 2040, but would add 200,000 jobs.
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The middle scenario is the one planned, which would mean reducing CO2 emissions from transport to zero in 2040 at the cost of 275,000 people losing their jobs. The third, most extreme, plans to reduce CO2 emissions from transport to zero in 2030, which would mean a loss of 360,000 jobs. In any case, Germany, Italy, Spain and Romania would be most affected.
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“The needs of society are too diverse for a one-size-fits-all approach to work. The regulatory framework, which is open to all available solutions, such as the use of hybrid technologies, green hydrogen and renewable, sustainable fuels, will allow room for innovation, ”de Vries said.
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An older study on ancillary topic commissioned by CLEPA from the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) does not see the development of the number of jobs in the automotive industry, but it also focused on the situation until 2030, not 2040, as PwC did.
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According to her, the transition to the production of electric cars would mean the loss of 630 jobs where the work is related to the production of internal combustion engines. However, the demand for batteries, charging infrastructure and other services would create 580,000 jobs, which means a loss of “only” 50,000 jobs.
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BCG says about 2.4 million workers would need retraining. 1.6 million people would remain in their current positions and companies, with only “slightly different requirements”. 610,000 people would remain in the automotive industry, but would work on something else – for example, they would produce electric motors instead of gearboxes.
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Finally, 225,000 people would need “complete retraining and relocation,” so they would be working elsewhere on something completely different than they are today. However, the BCG supports a rapid transition to electric cars.
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