With the surprise invasion of its troops into the border Russian region of Kursk and their rapid advance into Russian territory, Ukraine has achieved at least one major victory, that of communication. Images of Ukrainian armored personnel carriers crossing the almost unguarded border line unopposed and Russian TV reports of the president Vladimir Putin to criticize military leadership, government officials and local rulers embarrassed Moscow.
Ukraine claims that within ten days its forces occupied 1,150 sq km. of Russian territory, roughly as much as the Russians occupied in Ukraine since the beginning of the year (1,175 sq. km.) with heavy losses in their ranks. In his reference to Volodymyr Zelensky, last Thursday, the chief of the Ukrainian general staff Alexander Shirsky he said Ukrainian forces were advancing one to two kilometers a day, at a significantly slower pace than the pace of the first few days, partially confirming analysts’ assessments that the operation was reaching its peak.
The land swap scenario
Kiev has been tight-lipped about its goals, with Western media describing as the best-case scenario that Ukrainian forces would be able to retain control of the territories they seized in order to trade them in future negotiations and remove Russian troops from the frontlines. in Ukraine, especially from the direction of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, which is considered a strategic station for their supply.
Speaking to the Economist, the Australian retired general Mick Ryan he warns that this scenario carries risks for the Ukrainians, who he says will find it difficult to maintain electronic warfare and air defense coverage of their troops over such a large area.
Ukraine claims that within ten days its forces occupied 1,150 sq km. of Russian territory, roughly as much as the Russians have occupied since the beginning of the year
A second possibility is for Ukrainian forces to return to the border line, maintaining their manpower and equipment in order to try to retake Russian-held Ukrainian territory next year. In a third version, the Ukrainians could partially withdraw to more defensive positions near the border and create a base for future attacks.
For the time being, the goal of removing a significant number of Russian soldiers from the front line of the fighting in Ukraine does not seem to be achieved. According to US officials who spoke to CNN, as of Friday Russia had moved only a few thousand troops from the front lines in Ukraine to the Kursk region. According to the same sources, troops were also moved from Kaliningrad and the St. Petersburg region.
The lack of Russian soldiers
However, the Ukrainian raid further demonstrates the troop shortages Moscow is facing, Bloomberg notes in an article. The Russian Ministry of Defense is finding it increasingly difficult to make up for the growing losses at the fronts as, according to Russian sources, the regional authorities in charge of recruitment are securing only 1/3 of the necessary numbers. The situation could force the Kremlin to announce new conscription, something it has been trying to avoid after the backlash and mass exodus of nearly a million people from Russia triggered by the partial conscription of 300,000 reservists in September 2022.
Since then, in order to secure the number of 30,000 new soldiers they need every month, the Russian authorities have been calling on Russians to prove their patriotism and go to war through billboards that are literally everywhere. Those who appear at recruitment offices sign contracts that provide for high fees, once upon signing and then monthly. To pressure regional governors to recruit more young people, the Kremlin has been steadily increasing subsidies, leading large and wealthy regions to entice residents of remote and poor areas to sign contracts on their behalf.
For example, last July the mayor of Moscow Sergey Sobyanin announced that it would pay 1.9 million rubles (19,400 euros) to each volunteer upon signing the contract on top of the 600,000 rubles (6,130 euros) already paid annually in monthly installments by the authorities in the Russian capital as a supplement to the salaries and benefits that the Ministry of Defense pays. The municipality of St. Petersburg is offering 1.6 million rubles for each new contract, while Vladimir Putin issued a decree to double the amount at the federal level to 400,000 rubles (4,100 euros) by the end of 2024, at a time when the average wage in Russia it does not exceed 86,500 rubles (884 euros). According to the first data, an increase in the number of new contracts in Moscow was recorded in recent weeks.
Europe in “Eye”.
The 32 possible attack targets
A report by the “Financial Times” which claims that the Russian navy has conducted exercises to use missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, in the event of a war with NATO, is causing concern. The British newspaper cites secret documents containing maps of 32 targets of the attacks, which were shown to Russian officers before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Potential targets are not only in the Baltic countries, but also in Norway, Germany, France, Britain, the Black and Caspian seas, and even the Pacific Ocean. The scenarios foresee wars even with Moscow’s current allies, such as China, Iran, Azerbaijan and North Korea. Analysts say Russia’s ability to launch attacks on Europe means targets across the continent will be at risk if the Russian military engages NATO forces stationed in front-line countries such as the Baltic states and Poland.
In recent months, Moscow has continuously intensified its nuclear rhetoric, threatening to strike Western countries if Russia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are threatened.
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