The number of infected and most other curves decreases, the reproduction number R is approximately 0.7. Do we win? How do you think this will evolve, and what is needed to get back to a normal way of life?
It’s not won, but it’s good. We must avoid similar mistakes as in the spring, so we must loosen at a slow pace and we must not forget that whenever it starts to move, we will have to pull again. The virus will not disappear, the population is far from infected and an immune barrier is not created here either. In addition, it’s starting to be a bit of a chimera, because the antibodies last for about six months, so we probably can’t get lasting immunity.
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To dismantle on Friday, the Minister of Health Jan Blatný (for YES) presented the anti-epidemic system or PES. What do you think of him?
The idea is great. We presented an Irish table for the Koronerv initiative, but this is even better. Even from a psychological point of view, this is quite a reassuring thing for the population, because they will know that each step has some parameters that reflect the degree of restrictions, and it is possible to predict to some extent what will happen when.
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Aren’t you afraid that it could end in the same way as the so-called covid traffic light in the spring, which was supposed to play a similar role?
The traffic light was something else. The original idea was similar, but then it was not worked out into this form. I wouldn’t compare it to a traffic light.
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This brings us to the communication of the Ministry of Health, which was not good in the past, and you yourself, as a critic, called for its improvement. The difference in the communication of the ministry under Blatný’s leadership compared to the eras of its predecessors is noticeable. How do you evaluate it, are you satisfied with the current communication of the resort?
I definitely perceive communication as better. We still have communication about the vaccine, which will be important. Communication in general is never low.
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There should be no fear of giving the restaurant its phone number, because that’s exactly what we can help with tracing.
Petr Smejkal
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Is there something you lack as an expert? What should the resort do and not do it, or do you see any gaps?
Still the biggest weakness is testing and tracing. This has improved, but when, for example, when opening restaurants, I would really, as in the West, really introduce contact information when entering the company. The fear of giving someone my phone number in a restaurant shouldn’t be here, because that’s exactly what we can help with tracing.
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Furthermore, for example, screening testing should definitely not be limited to senior homes. By the release phase, it is necessary to know where the virus is moving everywhere, and this will not be detected other than by this important testing.
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There are reportedly enough people who have symptoms and stay at home, they can’t be tested. We should somehow motivate these people to be tested and explain to them that this is nothing that somehow stigmatizes or excludes them. I would also like to appeal to companies to test their employees, for example.
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With good tracing and testing, provided we detect the vast majority of positives, we can live in the future without any major restrictions.
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Are the test capacities sufficient? We can currently do about 52,000 tests a day, but we are not reaching these numbers and it is evident that there are still a large number of infected people in the population.
It depends on the proportion of positively tested.
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He’s still tall. This is despite the fact that in recent days we have dropped to 27 percent positive from the number of tests performed.
Well, all the other numbers are improving, but this remains high. When you have a third of all tested positive, it’s too much. This means that there are enough positive people in the population that we do not know about.
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So with so many positive people, how many should we test?
First of all, we need great access to antigenic tests in general. The next few days will show how much we should test. If the number of positive seizures starts to fall very quickly, and falls to ten percent in a few days, then I would say that 50,000 will still be enough. But I would still focus more on people who refuse to be tested. It is also necessary to extend screening testing not only to nursing homes, but also to hospitals to know if and how many positive health professionals there are.
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What can the prevalence be like at present?
In the population, 400,000, half a million people can be infected.
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The upper grades of primary schools and grammar schools are more risky and I would not open them until Christmas.
Petr Smejkal
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Should the project of area testing, which the ex-minister Roman Prymula wanted to carry out, return to play, and after the arrival of the current Minister Blatný, the plan was abandoned?
I think that what Slovakia has done should, to a certain extent, be done here as well. It is important now, but it is not completely acute, because we still keep the virus under control and the contacts are minimal. But it makes sense when we start massively loosening. This testing should take place when we let people into business and move more freely, or when we open other years of schooling. These are epidemiologically significant steps.
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You mentioned antigen tests. How do you view them? Is the criticism of their effectiveness justified, and therefore their ineffectiveness?
I don’t think so. It depends on which tests you use, but we at IKEM, for example, have tests with a sensitivity of 90 percent. The sensitivity of these tests increases with viral load, so infectious people should be detected even more by antigenic tests. Little is known. So I did not understand the sensitivity debate, because it is perfectly sufficient for epidemiological investigation and repeated testing in homes.
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In any case, it must be said that this test cannot be used for an accurate diagnosis. When someone who blows his nose comes, you can’t just do an antigen test for him, you also have to do a classic PCR test.
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From 18 November, the first and second years of primary schools are to return to the benches. If the situation did not worsen, all first-class classes could return, according to the PES. How do you see it?
First of all, I would definitely individualize it. Parents who do not feel like this should be able to decide whether to let the child go to school. It is said to be a possibility, but people do not know much about it. But if the child is not sent to school, it must be respected. This will reduce the burden between children.
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For those who go to school, it is necessary to ensure that there are no more pupils in a given class than necessary. Every building and class is different. However, if the situation looks favorable, I am not against letting go of the first stage, which is still less risky than the second and grammar schools. Higher grades and grammar schools are more risky and I would not open them until Christmas.
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But I’m definitely for teacher testing.
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How will children’s return to school affect statistics such as the R number? As children go to school, the mobility of the population will increase, which is now low, which significantly helps to improve the situation.
That will definitely happen. The R number should not increase above 0.8. If the number rises significantly, we will have to go back one step to where we were, ie to close schools, or add somewhere else. For example, order homeoffice companies to press R again.
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The number R is just one of the parameters. But once it jumped over one, we would have to cut back a lot with disintegration.
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The curves began to break more markedly at the turn of the month. Do you have any idea which measure was the most important?
Not so much measures were signed as the fact that at one point people actually started to strictly adhere to the measures and significantly reduced their contacts. I would see this as the most important factor.
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What can push us back to blacker scenarios is that the virus is entering vulnerable groups. At the beginning of September, the proportion of infected seniors over the age of 65 was about 10 percent, now it is about 19 percent. What caused such increases – many infected in society, inadequate measures in older homes or something else?
It’s more complicated. It always spills over to some risk groups. They are the most protected, but contacts cannot be completely avoided. It was not supposed to get into senior homes. It’s a mistake, because testing was supposed to start there earlier, we pointed this out in the spring.
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What else do you think was neglected, where and when did the government make a mistake?
I think the biggest mistakes were made at the end of the summer. Now it looks like we can handle it with quite abraded ears, it’s just a matter of not getting into it again. One thing is that we are generally skeptical, we don’t believe in anything and we approach everything slowly and with distrust, and until recently the communication was bad. In my opinion, there was a clear effort not to be unpopular and to meet everyone’s needs. That’s just not possible. Sometimes you need to be unpopular.
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Are the current measures sufficient to cope with the situation so that we can return to a more normal life?
They are. It definitely doesn’t have to be tightened.
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Is there any measure you think is unnecessary and we would do without it soon?
There was probably no need at all, but the first measure that could be repealed could probably be going out at night.
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Is there still a risk of hospitals collapsing? According to the latest data from the Ministry of Health, about 11,000 infected healthcare professionals are infected, and they are indispensable for the functioning of the system, we buy devices, not healthcare professionals.
There is probably no danger of complete collapse at this time. The situation is a little better, and the number of infected health professionals has decreased. However, this burden on hospitals still persists and we are in the phase of reducing various care.
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The virus will want to, but if we release it to the third wave, it’s up to us
Petr Smejkal
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Ten covid vaccines are in the third phase of clinical research, with Pfizer / BioNTech looking the most promising. We still cling to it like a light at the end of the tunnel. Will they save us, especially if there are groups of people who do not want to be vaccinated?
It won’t save. People perceive that the vaccine will be the end of it all. But it will never end. The vaccine will help us, but given how long immunity lasts after the disease, we will still have to revaccinate. We don’t know exactly how it will work, but it will definitely move it somewhere else, to normal. But it won’t solve everything one hundred percent, and we will still have to be careful about coronavirus.
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But it must be well communicated and linked to a massive information campaign. How many times is it enough for one person to say that his right leg is tingling after vaccination. I take it lightly, but unfortunately it is so.
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We are currently battling the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic. Do you expect the third wave to come, as it is debated?
It’s up to us if the third wave comes. The virus will want to, but if we let it go, it’s up to us. Of course, the vaccine will reduce the risk of the third wave, but we will have to be careful to take some action quickly if the situation worsens.
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There, however, we may again encounter people’s reluctance to follow the measures.
Well, then they will have the same thing again. There will be a lockdown again.
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