The rating agency Fitch, following its September outlook, it revised the discount as regards the GDP estimates of various countries of the world for 2020, a list in which Italy is also included.
As regards the overallEurozone a decrease of 9% is expected, up from the 8% previously estimated; a growth that should also be recorded in Great Britain, where it goes from an estimate of 9% to one of 11.5%.“We expect a shock on unemployment in Europe; companies are cutting investment and social distancing is continuing to curb private consumption”Fitch chief economist Brian Coulton explained, as reported by “Acted”. In the United States, the rating agency, on the other hand, expects a drop of 4.6%, an estimate lower than what was feared (ie – 5.6%). Also reported forecasts for China, which could grow by 2.7%. China, which remains the only one excluded from the black forecast regarding emerging markets: it rises from 4.7% to 5.7%, essentially due to the heavy estimates relating to India’s GDP. In fact, by next March 2021, Fitch estimates that it could go from – 5% to even – 10.5%.
What should happen instead in Italy? The forecasts for the decline in gross domestic product are slightly down, going from – 9.5% (June) to – 10%. “If the recovery in the United States and Europe were to continue at the pace of the last two months, GDP would very soon return to pre-virus levels”explains Fitch. This would lead to “much discussed ‘V’ bounce as seen in China”. However, the rating agency anticipates that this is an estimate “too optimistic” and that therefore economic recovery could likely “slow down in the fourth quarter”.
“GDP fell more than we expected in the second quarter, contracting by 12.8% compared to our forecast of 8.2% in June”, explains a report. After the end of the closure of the country imposed by the government “economic activity itself is recovery rapidly, and this could lead to a strong rebound in the third quarter “. Nonetheless“There has been some loss of growth momentum in recent weeks. It is important to underline that our forecasts do not yet take into account any expenses arising from the approval of the € 750 billion EU recovery fund”, Fitch explains again as reported by Agi.
Estimates on the growth for 2021, however, they are on the rise as regards Italy: Fitch calculates a + 5.4% (compared to the previous + 4.4%), and a + 2% for the following 2022. Under the item consumption, as opposed to a drastic decline in the current year (- 9.8%) could reach a rebound to + 5.6% in 2021. Unemployment rising: from 11.4% in 2020 to 11.7% next year.
–
