NATO is concerned that Russia and China are openly forging ever stronger ties, especially after the two countries on Wednesday sent bombers to South Korea’s air defense zone.
– Members of our alliance are concerned about the People’s Republic of China’s deterrence policy, its use of disinformation, its rapid and secret military rearmament, including its cooperation with Russia, says US Secretary of State Antony Blinken , according to Reuters.
Scared of collaboration
Hans Jørgen Gåsemyr, a senior researcher at the Norwegian Foreign Policy Institute (NUPI), says tension between the West and the big powers in the East is rising.
– The tension is rising, so there’s absolutely no reason to be concerned. It will be a more tense and strife-filled world, he tells Dagbladet.
– Greater skepticism
He describes the tensions in Asia as “exceptionally strong”, linked in particular to the conflicts between the US and China, but also linked to other countries in the region.
– But countries flexing their military muscles are nothing new, says Gåsemyr and adds:
– It is worth noting that territorial and security zones are two different things. They flew into the anti-aircraft zone. There is one more zone of protection: systems that countries have to intercept planes flying at them. It would have been much more serious if they had crossed the territorial border.
ON CHINA: Hans Jørgen Gåsemyr points out that it is important that China insists that it not take part in the war. Photo: NUPI
sea View
He also underlines that it is not new that Russia and China express a common interest and strength. In recent years, however, it has increased in scope and depth.
– Russia has a great interest in playing with the narrative that China is on their side, and China has a great interest in signaling common interests with Russia.
– How far can they go when it comes to cooperation with Russia and still maintain the position of a neutral party?
– It already contributes to more skepticism when it comes to what China is doing. On China’s side, it is important to argue that they do not take part in the war, do not support Russia’s war, but also refrain from criticizing it.
– The great horror
Gåsemyr points to several factors that defend Blinken’s concern about cooperation between Russia and China:
– The big exercises, the commemorations related to Taiwan this summer, the war in Ukraine and the continuous escalation of the conflict between the United States and China. If they continue on the track where the level of conflict increases as they rearm militarily, the risk of unintended accidents will increase. This is the great horror: for events to occur that will appear as warlike activity without being intentional.
Letter to Norway: – Worried
Despite the fact that the level of tension has varied in recent years, Gåsemyr believes that we are now in a long period where the level of conflict is escalating. Signs similar to Wednesday will become common.
– Or together with Russia or other countries with which China cooperates. We will continue to see flights and departures perceived by other countries as aggressive, which will not go away. There is no doubt that several major countries are escalating the discussion of China in the context of Russia. It is associated with risks and threats.
– Regularly
Øystein Tunsjø, a professor at Forsvarets høgskole, Department of Defense Studies with a focus on, among other things, US-China relations since 1945, points out that Wednesday’s incident is nothing new.
– I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on it. It’s routine. Yes, they show solidarity and try to discourage, but I can’t see what they are trying to discourage, she tells Dagbladet.
– A dark winter ahead
Tunsjø also believes that we are entering a new phase, but one that is more about the rivalry between China and the US superpowers.
– Create completely new framework conditions for absolutely everything in the world. From military rearmament to the climate, to the economy: everything. The rivalry also affects China’s strategic partnership with Russia, but China would never throw Russia under the bus because it is interested in Russia’s presence as an actor to disturb the United States.
– NOT NEW: Øystein Tunsjø points out that joint exercises by Russia and China are nothing new. Photo: The Norwegian Armed Forces
sea View
Relations between Russia and China have also become colder as a result of the war, Tunsjø points out. Therefore, joint exercises can be important for the parties to demonstrate that they still have some form of cooperation.
– Xi Jinping is unhappy that things are going badly for the Russians in Ukraine. When he met with Biden in Bali earlier this year, they signaled that nuclear weapons are not worth using. It was special that the two of them happened to be together on it, and it could have seemed directed directly at Putin. Xi also said he needed to cooperate on food and energy and called for international cooperation. It can be read as a certain criticism of Russia.
– This week’s exercise shows, however, that the relationship is still good and close, adding to the fact that China and Russia have a strategic partnership.
