11:45 p.m., April 2, 2022
It’s not panic yet, of course. Firstly because Emmanuel Macron remains the big favorite in the first round next Sunday, with 5 points ahead of Marine Le Pen, according to our Ifop poll. But many of his supporters, in the home stretch, are worried. “There is something to be afraid of, admits a minister. In a context where the idea that the President’s victory is certain has settled in everyone’s mind, and where the second round is taking place in the middle of the holidays… Trump, no one saw it coming. »
Read also – Presidential: with his big meeting, Emmanuel Macron wants to correct the shots
One of Macron’s relatives concedes: “There is a lot of panic at home. » To the point that the Head of State himself had to make a clarification, Wednesday in the Council of Ministers: “The period is not for moods”warned the President, pointing out that some have gone from« arrogance » to the “febrility”. Detailed review of the reasons for anguish of Macronie.
1 – The purchasing power trap
“The campaign has found its theme: purchasing power, which crushes everything and structures everything”, diagnosis Frédéric Dabi, Director General of Ifop. According to our Ifop survey, 93% of respondents believe that this theme will have an impact on the vote of the French in the first round of the presidential election, and 74% on their own vote. Although outgoing, Emmanuel Macron does not seem to suffer too much from this situation: it is in him that 21% of French people trust the most to improve the situation, against 17% in Marine Le Pen.
The fact remains that in Dijon (Côte-d’Or), Monday, for the first real campaign trip of the Head of State, it was purchasing power that came back in the questioning of the inhabitants. “With 575 euros, we do not live! »“Do you find it normal that I can no longer live on my income? » could you hear. If the candidate assures that the French State is “the one who does the most” in Europe in the face of inflation, the answer sums up all the difficulty for an executive to embrace the problem: “Me, the 20 billion [d’euros], I do not realize it! »
2 – The McKinsey controversy
In recent days, the candidate and his supporters, in each of their interventions, have had no choice but to dwell on this McKinsey affair, named after one of those consulting firms from which the executive would be ” dependent “, according to opposition. Multiplication of arguments, including comparisons with other countries or with the practices of local authorities; press conference of two ministers… In Macronie, the time is now on the offensive in the face of this controversy which, they fear, could reactivate the image of a President close to the powerful and the wealthy.
“
The McKinsey affair has limited impact, but it can be a slow poison that spreads during the end of the campaign
“
It remains to be seen whether the controversy can permanently affect the image of Emmanuel Macron. The campaign teams are reassured: according to the survey they commissioned, “One in two French people don’t give a damn. It’s not an obsessive subject, as some try to make it come up”, slips an adviser. A minister confirms: “We would prefer to talk about something else, of course. But I don’t think it’s lethal. » At least for the moment. Frédéric Dabi nuances: “The McKinsey affair has a limited impact, but it can be a slow poison that spreads during the end of the campaign. »
3 – The image of the president
His outings and his little phrases, throughout the five-year term, have helped to shape the image of an arrogant, disconnected and hubris-stricken President. From “Gauls resistant to change” to “people who are nothing”from “lazy” to “crazy dough” through the Head of State who ” Cross the street “ to find work. In recent months, he had made amends. Thus on TF1, in December: “I’ve hurt people, I won’t do it again. » The ace ! He recently appeared to do it again over the McKinsey case. “Let it go to the criminal”he launched, bravado, reactivating the memory of the famous ” Let them come get me “, pronounced in the middle of the Benalla affair.
Read also – INFOGRAPHICS. Does Emmanuel Macron end his five-year term by being popular?
A relapse? His popularity, as measured by the monthly Ifop barometer for the JDD, places him well above his predecessors Nicolas Sarkozy and especially François Hollande at the same time of their mandates. Macronie therefore relies on the competitive advantage provided by its status to counterbalance these negative image traits. “It is played on the presidentiality: even if we can hate him, we know that he holds the road”wants to believe a minister, who crosses his fingers.
4 – A minimal campaign
Can you imagine an outgoing president only fully committing himself during the last two weeks of the campaign? According to his supporters, Emmanuel Macron would have had little choice: the Covid-19 epidemic, then the Russian invasion in Ukraine forced him to keep his presidential costume until the end. “The first person embarrassed is the candidate”, we are assured at the HQ of the rue du Rocher, in Paris. But the competitors have, in concert, accused it of hiding carefully in order to take as little risk as possible and preserve its competitive advantage.
His first campaign outing, in Poissy (Yvelines) two weeks ago, in front of handpicked participants, had “gave the impression of a Potemkin campaign”, then sighed a minister. For the final sprint, Macron and his team tried to correct the situation. After three weeks devoted to “pedagogy, explanation and conversations with the French”, with in particular four television programs and the press conference presenting the program, the presidential candidate then committed, until the first round, to two weeks labeled “weeks of contact and conquest”. After Dijon and Fouras (Charente-Maritime), the meeting on Saturday, two trips are already planned for next week – Tuesday in Brittany, Thursday in Île-de-France – and perhaps one more. Two radio mornings, on RTL and France Inter, and a 20 Hours on TF1 are also planned.
5 – The Le Pen threat
In the lead with 27% of voting intentions, Macron however lost 2.5 points in two weeks (he was then at 29.5%), according to our Ifop poll, and sees Marine Le Pen catch up a bit. With 22% of voting intentions against 18.5% two weeks ago, the RN candidate has reduced the gap, in the same period of time, from 11 to 5 points… A relative puts it into perspective: “It’s going down, it’s true. But a month ago it was 25, then it went up to 31, and now it’s back down to 27 or 28. A month ago, we would have all signed for it to be 27 on the eve of the last campaign week. » But this last week could well see the gap narrow again. According to the weekly average of the polls established by the JDD (until Friday), Macron lost 0.6% in one week, where Le Pen gained 1.9%. And the concern would of course be multiplied in the event of a second round between the two.
6 – The risk of abstention
This is the only certainty about this election: abstention should represent, once again, the first party in France. According to the evaluation of our Ifop poll, it would reach 28%, that is to say approximately the level of the first round of the presidential election of 2002, and approximately 13 million French people (out of 48 million registered). It is the first time that the participation in a presidential election would go down to the level of this famous April 21, the worst vintage in the history of the Fifth Republic in terms of abstention, which had seen Lionel Jospin eliminated in favor of Jean – Marie Le Pen.
Read also – Presidential: will abstention break a record?
Unsurprisingly, the working classes and non-graduates should abstain more than the average (33%), as well as those under 35 (35%). As for political proximity, there is a very high abstention on the left (31%), while supporters of La République en Marche (16%), Reconquête! (13%) and the National Rally (17%) are the most mobilized. Ditto for those who voted for Le Pen (17%) and Macron (20%) in 2017. A relative of the latter warns, however: “By dint of repeating that the election is folded, there is a risk of demobilization. People might not move. »
7 – Violence in Sevran
His right-wing and far-right competitors were quick to focus on the theme of security, presented as a flaw in the presidential record. “The far right can play on insecurity, it is a source of mobilization for its electorate, notes a close friend of Macron. But I do not believe that the last week of the campaign will be played out on matters of public order. »
The fact remains that the recent events in Sevran (Seine-Saint-Denis), where a police officer fired and killed a man a week ago, and where clashes broke out in the town and neighboring towns, have all the more reactivated the subject that they were immediately exploited by the opponents of the Head of State. Pay attention, therefore, to last-minute news items. The case of Papy Voise, this pensioner with a swollen face who had aroused emotion in the last days of the 2002 campaign, is in everyone’s memory…
8 – The unrest in Corsica
Same problem after the unrest in Corsica following the death in prison of Ivan Colonna, the assassin of Prefect Érignac, and the same attacks on the deficit of state authority during this five-year period. Emmanuel Macron denounced “a mistake” after the flag was hoisted on the island by the local government.
9 – An unattractive program
In 2017, he was accused of not having a program. This time, his project was deemed uncreative, but also somewhat repulsive. Thus its proposals to push back to 65 the legal age of retirement or the conditioning of the payment of the RSA to an activity. After discovering the program, a right-wing Macronist mayor told one of his friends, who stayed at LR: “We are going to have him, the right-wing president! » Before conceding: “I put myself in the place of the electorate on the left. Apart from the single social payment, not much…”
Read also – Presidential: how Emmanuel Macron intends to raise the retirement age to 65
A minister concedes: “I don’t think we are enthusiastic about 65-year-olds…” One of his colleagues abounds: “There were some awkwardness in the way the program is told. On the RSA, the message did not go well. » A close friend of Macron defends him: “In this campaign, the few themes that have sparked debate have done so after the ideas he presented, such as the RSA or retirement at 65. He’s the one making the game.” Still, the candidate president still felt the need to give a little push to the left and talk about societal measures on Saturday in his speech at the Defense.
10 – Rumors about his heritage
Emmanuel Macron’s supporters want to be confident: according to them, the work of the site Off Investigation on the candidate’s assets, which provides no evidence of illegal practices, would not be enough to permanently damage his campaign. According to them, only the most extreme or conspiratorial audiences would relay it today. “It more or less resembles what happened in 2017, notes a relative of the candidate president. It is the story of the account in the Bahamas that is resurrected. No need to overreact. »
–
